Lorient v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 7
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.71
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
53.8%
Draw
24.3%
Paris FC win
21.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLWLDWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 14.4 xG
conceded 13
from 16.6 xG
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWLWLWDW last 10
scored 21
from 21.2 xG
conceded 9
from 12.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–1.07 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 1.17 xGParis FC 1.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Lorient |
Abdoulaye Faye | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 30' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 32' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 33' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.23 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 44' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 44' |
 Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marshall Munetsi |
| 44' |
Paris FC |
Nhoa Sangui | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 53' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Pagis |
| 59' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 65' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Noah Cadiou |
| 73' |
Paris FC |
Diego Coppola | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 73' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.66 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 84' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sambou Soumano |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 96' |
Paris FC |
Samir Chergui | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
Players
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Munetsi AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.74 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Moses Simon AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxime Lopez DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Jonathan Ikone AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Adama Camara DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilan Kebbal Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Alimami Gory Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hamari Traore Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samir Chergui Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.64 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 68 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |