Lorient v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 16
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.32
Goals − xG
+0.51 – -0.90
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyLorient win
31.2%
model 34.5%
Draw
28.9%
model 25.7%
Paris FC win
39.9%
model 39.8%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.2%
- 0-1 9.4%
- 1-0 8.6%
- 1-2 8.6%
- 2-1 7.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | Under 2.5 | 49.1% |
| BTTS yes | 55.0% | BTTS no | 45.0% |
| Lorient 1+ | 72.7% | Lorient 2+ | 37.2% |
| Paris FC 1+ | 75.7% | Paris FC 2+ | 41.3% |
Expected goals 1.30 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
98/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Lorient to win neither half
Win either half · usually 41%
53.6% fair odds 1.87
moderate signal · 1081 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Paris FC (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Paris FC carry the stronger rating, 1653 Elo against 1563.
- Paris FC have created 1.93 xG a match over their last five while Lorient have allowed 1.53.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
- Away from home Paris FC average 1.98 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Paris FC have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Lorient and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Lorient and 1.41 for Paris FC.
Why Lorient
Lorient have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Paris FC have allowed 0.96. At home Lorient average 1.37 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.30 to 1.41. Draws run at 23% in this competition.
Why Paris FC can win
Paris FC carry the stronger rating, 1653 Elo against 1563. Paris FC have created 1.93 xG a match over their last five while Lorient have allowed 1.53. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. Away from home Paris FC average 1.98 xG a match.
Key players
Lorient's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (0.40), Pablo Pagis (0.35), Mamadou Koné (0.25). Paris FC's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lassine Sinayoko (0.62), Ilan Kebbal (0.33), Marshall Munetsi (0.32).
Availability
3 of Lorient's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Lorient's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Paris FC's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Lorient: 48% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Paris FC: 50% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-10 14:48 · team_stats 2026-10-10 06:03 · availability 2026-10-10 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Paris FC are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDLWDLWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.4 xG
conceded 10
from 12.6 xG
Paris FC are finishing below their chances — 2.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDWWDWLWL last 10
scored 16
from 18.0 xG
conceded 12
from 9.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.30–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.25–1.30 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.39 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to win | 40.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | 0.93× | 2.33 |
| Paris FC to win | 35.2% | 36.3% | 31.3% | 1.16× | 2.75 |
| Draw | 24.5% | 24.4% | 22.9% | 1.07× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient & both teams score | 21.3% | 21.8% | 22.3% | 0.98× | 4.59 |
| Lorient & not both score | 19.0% | 18.0% | 23.8% | 0.75× | 5.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.3% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 1.10× | 5.56 |
| Paris FC & both teams score | 18.8% | 18.0% | 15.6% | 1.15× | 5.57 |
| Paris FC & not both score | 16.3% | 18.0% | 15.8% | 1.14× | 5.57 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 1.25× | 12.01 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient & over 1.5 | 32.3% | 30.8% | 36.1% | 0.85× | 3.25 |
| Paris FC & over 1.5 | 27.8% | 26.1% | 25.0% | 1.04× | 3.84 |
| Lorient & over 2.5 | 26.2% | 26.1% | 28.5% | 0.91× | 3.84 |
| Lorient & under 3.5 | 26.0% | 26.1% | 29.4% | 0.89× | 3.84 |
| Paris FC & under 3.5 | 23.2% | 21.6% | 20.5% | 1.06× | 4.63 |
| Paris FC & over 2.5 | 22.5% | 21.6% | 19.6% | 1.10× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.3% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 1.10× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 16.6% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 1.09× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 16.6% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 1.09× | 5.56 |
| Lorient & under 2.5 | 14.2% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 0.73× | 7.78 |
| Lorient & over 3.5 | 14.3% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 0.77× | 7.78 |
| Paris FC & under 2.5 | 12.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 1.09× | 7.78 |
| Paris FC & over 3.5 | 12.0% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 1.18× | 7.78 |
| Lorient & under 1.5 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 0.79× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 1.21× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 1.21× | 12.63 |
| Paris FC & under 1.5 | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 1.24× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 1.19× | 12.63 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (1UP) | 57.9% | 58.3% | 58.6% | 1.00× | 1.71 |
| Paris FC (1UP) | 53.5% | 52.8% | 48.7% | 1.08× | 1.89 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (2UP) | 40.3% | 47.0% | 47.8% | 0.98× | 2.13 |
| Paris FC (2UP) | 35.2% | 37.2% | 33.5% | 1.11× | 2.69 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to win 2nd half | 40.4% | 41.5% | 42.0% | 0.99× | 2.41 |
| 2nd half drawn | 32.0% | 34.1% | 31.6% | 1.08× | 2.94 |
| Paris FC to win 2nd half | 27.5% | 26.6% | 26.6% | 1.00× | 3.76 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC under 1.5 in 2nd half | 80.7% | 84.1% | 83.2% | 1.01× | 1.19 |
| Paris FC over 0.5 in 2nd half | 55.3% | 55.0% | 49.8% | 1.11× | 1.82 |
| Paris FC under 0.5 in 2nd half | 44.7% | 45.0% | 50.2% | 0.90× | 2.22 |
| Paris FC over 1.5 in 2nd half | 19.3% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 0.94× | 6.30 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient under 1.5 in 2nd half | 72.0% | 74.0% | 75.6% | 0.98× | 1.35 |
| Lorient over 0.5 in 2nd half | 64.8% | 63.2% | 62.1% | 1.02× | 1.58 |
| Lorient under 0.5 in 2nd half | 35.2% | 36.8% | 37.9% | 0.97× | 2.71 |
| Lorient over 1.5 in 2nd half | 28.0% | 26.0% | 24.4% | 1.06× | 3.85 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC (+2.5) | 92.2% | 92.1% | 90.1% | 1.02× | 1.09 |
| Paris FC (+1.5) | 80.2% | 82.5% | 75.3% | 1.10× | 1.21 |
| Lorient (+0.5) | 64.8% | 62.9% | 68.7% | 0.92× | 1.59 |
| Paris FC (+0.5) | 59.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | 1.06× | 1.75 |
| Lorient (-0.5) | 40.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | 0.93× | 2.33 |
| Paris FC (-0.5) | 35.2% | 37.1% | 31.3% | 1.19× | 2.70 |
| Lorient (-1.5) | 19.8% | 17.5% | 24.7% | 0.71× | 5.71 |
| Lorient (-2.5) | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 0.80× | 12.65 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC to concede | 78.4% | 78.8% | 77.7% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 21.6% | 21.2% | 22.3% | 0.95× | 4.72 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC clean sheet in 1st half | 61.2% | 64.6% | 52.2% | 1.24× | 1.55 |
| Paris FC to concede in 1st half | 38.8% | 35.4% | 47.8% | 0.74× | 2.82 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC to concede in 2nd half | 64.8% | 61.0% | 62.1% | 0.98× | 1.64 |
| Paris FC clean sheet in 2nd half | 35.2% | 39.0% | 37.9% | 1.03× | 2.57 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC under 6.5 corners | 84.8% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Paris FC under 5.5 corners | 76.0% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Paris FC over 2.5 corners | 68.3% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Paris FC under 4.5 corners | 63.9% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Paris FC over 3.5 corners | 51.3% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Paris FC under 3.5 corners | 48.7% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Paris FC over 4.5 corners | 36.1% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Paris FC under 2.5 corners | 31.7% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Paris FC over 5.5 corners | 24.0% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Paris FC over 6.5 corners | 15.2% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC under 3.5 goals | 94.4% | 92.3% | 93.6% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Paris FC under 2.5 goals | 82.9% | 81.4% | 85.0% | 0.96× | 1.23 |
| Paris FC over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | 76.3% | 69.7% | 1.10× | 1.31 |
| Paris FC under 1.5 goals | 58.6% | 59.3% | 63.6% | 0.93× | 1.69 |
| Paris FC over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 40.7% | 36.4% | 1.12× | 2.46 |
| Paris FC under 0.5 goals | 24.2% | 23.7% | 30.3% | 0.78× | 4.21 |
| Paris FC over 2.5 goals | 17.1% | 18.6% | 15.0% | 1.24× | 5.38 |
| Paris FC over 3.5 goals | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 1.20× | 13.04 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC under 1.5 in 1st half | 87.4% | 89.1% | 87.6% | 1.02× | 1.12 |
| Paris FC under 0.5 in 1st half | 54.2% | 55.4% | 58.1% | 0.95× | 1.81 |
| Paris FC over 0.5 in 1st half | 45.8% | 44.6% | 41.9% | 1.07× | 2.24 |
| Paris FC over 1.5 in 1st half | 12.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 0.88× | 9.16 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC scores equally in both | 37.7% | 36.9% | 41.9% | 0.88× | 2.71 |
| Paris FC scores more in 2nd half | 36.8% | 36.9% | 33.5% | 1.10× | 2.71 |
| Paris FC scores more in 1st half | 25.4% | 26.5% | 24.7% | 1.07× | 3.77 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (away no bet) | 62.2% | 62.0% | 66.7% | 0.93× | 1.61 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 37.8% | 38.0% | 33.3% | 1.14× | 2.63 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC even goals | 52.9% | 52.6% | 56.4% | 0.93× | 1.90 |
| Paris FC odd goals | 47.1% | 47.4% | 43.6% | 1.09× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 83.3% | 83.1% | 83.0% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 16.7% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 0.99× | 5.93 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 68.7% | 68.5% | 65.4% | 1.05× | 1.46 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 31.5% | 34.6% | 0.91× | 3.17 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 59.5% | 55.3% | 60.1% | 0.92× | 1.81 |
| Lorient to score 2+ in a row | 35.8% | 36.2% | 38.5% | 0.94× | 2.76 |
| Paris FC to score 2+ in a row | 31.7% | 29.2% | 27.6% | 1.06× | 3.42 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 21.8% | 19.5% | 22.2% | 0.88× | 5.12 |
| Lorient to score 3+ in a row | 12.2% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 0.87× | 8.31 |
| Paris FC to score 3+ in a row | 9.9% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 0.64× | 17.41 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient corners (+3.5) | 87.4% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Lorient corners (+2.5) | 81.0% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Paris FC corners (+3.5) | 78.7% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Lorient corners (+1.5) | 72.5% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Paris FC corners (+2.5) | 70.2% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Paris FC corners (+1.5) | 60.0% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Lorient corners (-1.5) | 40.0% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Lorient corners (-2.5) | 29.8% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Paris FC corners (-1.5) | 27.5% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Lorient corners (-3.5) | 21.3% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Paris FC corners (-2.5) | 19.0% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Paris FC corners (-3.5) | 12.6% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 53.3% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.0% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
| 12+ corners | 20.7% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.91 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.1% | 83.1% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.3% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.0% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 63.3% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 57.4% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 53.3% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 46.7% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 42.6% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36.7% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 28.0% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 20.7% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.9% | 16.9% | — | — | 5.90 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 1.14× | 8.73 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 0.87× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 0.74× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.14× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.50 |
| 0-2 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.32× | 13.50 |
| 2-0 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.48× | 13.50 |
| 0-3 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.71× | 58.34 |
| 0-4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.35 |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 0.51× | 58.33 |
| 1-4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.35 |
| 2-3 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.94× | 58.34 |
| 2-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.26× | 58.35 |
| 3-0 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.47× | 58.34 |
| 3-1 | 4.5% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.33 |
| 3-2 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.34 |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.34 |
| 3-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.26× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.94× | 58.35 |
| 4-1 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.87× | 58.34 |
| 4-2 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.65× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.65× | 58.35 |
| Any other score | 3.5% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.34× | 58.33 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (2nd half DNB) | 59.5% | 60.3% | 61.3% | 0.98× | 1.66 |
| Paris FC (2nd half DNB) | 40.5% | 39.7% | 38.7% | 1.03× | 2.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC leading at HT (DNB) | 57.1% | 57.4% | 46.1% | 1.25× | 1.74 |
| Lorient leading at HT (DNB) | 42.9% | 42.6% | 53.9% | 0.79× | 2.35 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient or Paris FC (12) | 75.5% | 75.6% | 77.1% | 0.98× | 1.32 |
| Lorient or draw (1X) | 64.8% | 63.7% | 68.7% | 0.93× | 1.57 |
| Paris FC or draw (X2) | 59.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | 1.06× | 1.75 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC or draw at HT | 75.9% | 79.4% | 66.8% | 1.19× | 1.26 |
| Lorient or draw at HT | 68.0% | 66.6% | 71.6% | 0.93× | 1.50 |
| Lorient or Paris FC at HT | 56.1% | 56.9% | 61.5% | 0.93× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient or draw (1UP) | 64.8% | 72.0% | 73.0% | 0.99× | 1.39 |
| Paris FC or draw (1UP) | 59.7% | 63.3% | 61.8% | 1.02× | 1.58 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient or draw in 2nd half | 72.5% | 73.4% | 73.4% | 1.00× | 1.36 |
| Lorient or Paris FC in 2nd half | 68.0% | 65.9% | 68.4% | 0.96× | 1.52 |
| Paris FC or draw in 2nd half | 59.6% | 58.5% | 58.0% | 1.01× | 1.71 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 61.9% | 61.4% | 57.1% | 1.08× | 1.63 |
| Neither half drawn | 38.1% | 38.6% | 42.9% | 0.90× | 2.59 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (DNB) | 53.4% | 51.1% | 59.5% | 0.86× | 1.96 |
| Paris FC (DNB) | 46.6% | 48.9% | 40.5% | 1.21× | 2.04 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to score first | 49.3% | 45.9% | 49.9% | 0.92× | 2.18 |
| Paris FC to score first | 45.5% | 45.7% | 43.6% | 1.05× | 2.19 |
| No goal scored | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.54 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 55.1% | 54.0% | 1.02× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 40.6% | 44.9% | 46.0% | 0.98× | 2.23 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 48.1% | 44.4% | 44.2% | 1.01× | 2.25 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 32.1% | 34.5% | 35.8% | 0.96× | 2.90 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.4% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 1.23× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 0.81× | 12.04 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 81.2% | 82.6% | 84.7% | 0.98× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 18.8% | 17.4% | 15.3% | 1.13× | 5.75 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 64.2% | 65.4% | 69.7% | 0.94× | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 35.8% | 34.6% | 30.3% | 1.14× | 2.89 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 52.8% | 55.1% | 57.5% | 0.96× | 1.81 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 29.4% | 26.9% | 24.1% | 1.12× | 3.71 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.4% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 0.87× | 9.39 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 1.08× | 14.55 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 82.2% | 83.1% | 81.5% | 1.02× | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 17.8% | 16.9% | 18.5% | 0.91× | 5.92 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 56.3% | 57.2% | 59.3% | 0.96× | 1.75 |
| A half without a goal | 43.7% | 42.8% | 40.7% | 1.05× | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.2% | 47.2% | 43.6% | 1.08× | 2.12 |
| 4-6 goals | 31.1% | 30.8% | 30.5% | 1.01× | 3.25 |
| 0-1 goals | 20.7% | 22.9% | 22.8% | 1.00× | 4.38 |
| 7+ goals | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 0.53× | 54.48 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC to score exactly 1 | 34.4% | 33.8% | 33.4% | 1.01× | 2.96 |
| Paris FC to score exactly 0 | 24.2% | 22.3% | 30.3% | 0.74× | 4.48 |
| Paris FC to score exactly 2 | 24.3% | 22.3% | 21.5% | 1.04× | 4.48 |
| Paris FC to score 3+ | 17.1% | 19.6% | 15.0% | 1.30× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to score exactly 1 | 33.1% | 32.5% | 31.6% | 1.03× | 3.07 |
| Lorient to score exactly 2 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 23.8% | 1.11× | 3.77 |
| Lorient to score exactly 0 | 21.6% | 23.3% | 22.3% | 1.04× | 4.30 |
| Lorient to score 3+ | 20.0% | 18.8% | 22.6% | 0.83× | 5.31 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 43.9% | 43.1% | 38.5% | 1.12× | 2.32 |
| Paris FC leading at HT | 32.0% | 33.4% | 28.4% | 1.18× | 2.99 |
| Lorient leading at HT | 24.1% | 20.6% | 33.2% | 0.62× | 4.87 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient -1: 2 | 59.7% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Lorient -1: X | 20.5% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| Lorient -1: 1 | 19.8% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC (0:1) | 59.7% | 55.8% | 54.0% | 1.03× | 1.79 |
| Draw (0:1) | 20.5% | 24.2% | 21.4% | 1.13× | 4.13 |
| Lorient (0:1) | 19.8% | 17.8% | 24.7% | 0.72× | 5.60 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC (0:2) | 80.2% | 82.9% | 75.3% | 1.10× | 1.21 |
| Draw (0:2) | 12.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 0.73× | 9.12 |
| Lorient (0:2) | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 0.78× | 13.01 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC (0:3) | 92.2% | 92.7% | 90.1% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 0.98× | 17.30 |
| Lorient (0:3) | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 0.58× | 42.26 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC (0:4) | 97.5% | 98.1% | 95.9% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 0.44× | 82.64 |
| Lorient (0:4) | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.80× | 82.77 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (1:0) | 64.8% | 65.4% | 68.7% | 0.95× | 1.53 |
| Draw (1:0) | 19.0% | 17.1% | 15.0% | 1.14× | 5.85 |
| Paris FC (1:0) | 16.2% | 17.1% | 16.4% | 1.04× | 5.86 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient (2:0) | 83.8% | 84.7% | 83.6% | 1.01× | 1.18 |
| Draw (2:0) | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 1.07× | 9.73 |
| Paris FC (2:0) | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 0.91× | 15.69 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 54.7% | 50.5% | 47.5% | 1.06× | 1.98 |
| Halves equal | 22.7% | 24.3% | 26.4% | 0.92× | 4.11 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 22.5% | 24.3% | 26.3% | 0.93× | 4.11 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to concede | 75.8% | 76.1% | 69.7% | 1.09× | 1.31 |
| Lorient clean sheet | 24.2% | 23.9% | 30.3% | 0.79× | 4.19 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient clean sheet in 1st half | 54.2% | 55.4% | 58.1% | 0.95× | 1.81 |
| Lorient to concede in 1st half | 45.8% | 44.6% | 41.9% | 1.07× | 2.24 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to concede in 2nd half | 55.3% | 55.2% | 49.8% | 1.11× | 1.81 |
| Lorient clean sheet in 2nd half | 44.7% | 44.8% | 50.2% | 0.89× | 2.23 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient under 6.5 corners | 77.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Lorient over 2.5 corners | 75.7% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Lorient under 5.5 corners | 67.1% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Lorient over 3.5 corners | 60.7% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Lorient under 4.5 corners | 54.2% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Lorient over 4.5 corners | 45.8% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Lorient under 3.5 corners | 39.3% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Lorient over 5.5 corners | 32.9% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Lorient under 2.5 corners | 24.3% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Lorient over 6.5 corners | 22.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient under 3.5 goals | 93.0% | 92.2% | 91.8% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Lorient under 2.5 goals | 80.0% | 82.2% | 77.4% | 1.06× | 1.22 |
| Lorient over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | 77.7% | 77.7% | 1.00× | 1.29 |
| Lorient under 1.5 goals | 54.7% | 53.2% | 53.7% | 0.99× | 1.88 |
| Lorient over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 46.8% | 46.3% | 1.01× | 2.14 |
| Lorient under 0.5 goals | 21.6% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 1.00× | 4.49 |
| Lorient over 2.5 goals | 20.0% | 17.8% | 22.6% | 0.79× | 5.60 |
| Lorient over 3.5 goals | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 0.95× | 12.86 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.3% | 94.8% | 87.3% | 1.09× | 1.06 |
| Lorient under 0.5 in 1st half | 61.2% | 64.3% | 52.2% | 1.23× | 1.56 |
| Lorient over 0.5 in 1st half | 38.8% | 35.7% | 47.8% | 0.75× | 2.80 |
| Lorient over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.7% | 5.2% | 12.7% | 0.41× | 19.28 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient scores more in 2nd half | 48.7% | 47.7% | 40.7% | 1.17× | 2.10 |
| Lorient scores equally in both | 34.1% | 33.1% | 37.2% | 0.89× | 3.02 |
| Lorient scores more in 1st half | 17.2% | 14.7% | 22.3% | 0.66× | 6.81 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC (home no bet) | 59.0% | 56.5% | 57.7% | 0.98× | 1.77 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 41.0% | 43.5% | 42.3% | 1.03× | 2.30 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient even goals | 52.3% | 50.7% | 51.9% | 0.98× | 1.97 |
| Lorient odd goals | 47.7% | 49.3% | 48.1% | 1.03× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 33.2% | 32.9% | 28.8% | 1.14× | 3.04 |
| HT 0-1 | 20.3% | 24.2% | 16.7% | 1.45× | 4.14 |
| HT 1-0 | 16.3% | 18.9% | 21.4% | 0.88× | 5.30 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 0.75× | 14.31 |
| HT 0-2 | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 1.31× | 14.37 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.0% | 2.4% | 6.8% | 0.35× | 42.26 |
| Any other HT score | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 0.52× | 42.28 |
| HT 1-2 | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 0.54× | 42.33 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.74× | 42.37 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.10× | 42.48 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC at HT / Paris FC at FT | 21.3% | 21.7% | 19.0% | 1.14× | 4.61 |
| Lorient at HT / Lorient at FT | 18.5% | 16.8% | 27.8% | 0.60× | 5.95 |
| Draw at HT / Lorient at FT | 17.7% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 1.13× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 14.1% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 0.97× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Paris FC at FT | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 1.16× | 7.92 |
| Paris FC at HT / Draw at FT | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 1.00× | 16.46 |
| Paris FC at HT / Lorient at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 0.95× | 28.84 |
| Lorient at HT / Draw at FT | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 0.85× | 28.85 |
| Lorient at HT / Paris FC at FT | 1.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 2.07× | 28.93 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to score last | 49.3% | 46.6% | 52.8% | 0.88× | 2.15 |
| Paris FC to score last | 45.5% | 46.4% | 40.7% | 1.14× | 2.15 |
| No goal scored | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.54 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.8% | 92.7% | 93.3% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Lorient to lead by 1 at any time | 57.9% | 55.1% | 58.6% | 0.94× | 1.81 |
| Paris FC to lead by 1 at any time | 53.5% | 51.0% | 48.7% | 1.05× | 1.96 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 49.3% | 44.4% | 51.3% | 0.87× | 2.25 |
| Lorient to lead by 2 at any time | 26.8% | 25.3% | 30.0% | 0.84× | 3.95 |
| Paris FC to lead by 2 at any time | 22.9% | 19.7% | 21.4% | 0.92× | 5.08 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 18.0% | 15.0% | 19.7% | 0.76× | 6.65 |
| Lorient to lead by 3 at any time | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 0.89× | 9.62 |
| Paris FC to lead by 3 at any time | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 0.82× | 14.90 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient most corners | 51.1% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Paris FC most corners | 37.7% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Corners level | 11.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.9% | 87.4% | 85.1% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 77.1% | 78.7% | 76.6% | 1.03× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 76.2% | 78.7% | 73.9% | 1.06× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 71.4% | 72.4% | 69.0% | 1.05× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.7% | 63.4% | 60.5% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 60.6% | 63.4% | 59.6% | 1.06× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 53.5% | 53.2% | 51.0% | 1.04× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 48.7% | 48.5% | 46.1% | 1.05× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.2% | 48.5% | 43.6% | 1.11× | 2.06 |
| 3-4 goals | 38.9% | 39.2% | 37.6% | 1.04× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 38.2% | 39.2% | 39.2% | 1.00× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 31.1% | 35.2% | 30.5% | 1.16× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 26.3% | 30.3% | 25.6% | 1.18× | 3.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 14.6% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 1.10× | 6.74 |
| 7+ goals | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 0.73× | 39.19 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient never behind | 41.3% | 48.2% | 51.3% | 0.94× | 2.08 |
| Paris FC never behind | 36.9% | 44.1% | 41.4% | 1.06× | 2.27 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 47.5% | 1.07× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 52.5% | 0.93× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.5% | 57.5% | 51.7% | 1.11× | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.5% | 42.5% | 48.3% | 0.88× | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.2% | 51.9% | 49.9% | 1.04× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.8% | 48.1% | 50.1% | 0.96× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.8% | 92.3% | 93.3% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 92.1% | 92.3% | 91.7% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 82.3% | 82.3% | 83.2% | 0.99× | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | 77.4% | 77.2% | 1.00× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65.8% | 66.3% | 66.2% | 1.00× | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 58.6% | 54.3% | 1.08× | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 41.4% | 45.7% | 0.91× | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 33.7% | 33.8% | 1.00× | 2.97 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.7% | 22.6% | 22.8% | 0.99× | 4.42 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17.7% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 1.05× | 5.66 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 0.93× | 12.92 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.16× | 12.94 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 96.7% | 97.2% | 96.3% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 91.3% | 92.4% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 78.9% | 75.9% | 79.7% | 0.95× | 1.32 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 73.3% | 72.4% | 70.5% | 1.03× | 1.38 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 56.0% | 55.8% | 57.4% | 0.97× | 1.79 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 44.0% | 44.2% | 42.6% | 1.04× | 2.26 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 26.7% | 27.6% | 29.5% | 0.93× | 3.63 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 21.1% | 24.1% | 20.3% | 1.19× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 0.83× | 13.17 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 0.76× | 35.69 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 90.0% | 89.0% | 87.6% | 1.02× | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 69.8% | 68.8% | 66.6% | 1.03× | 1.45 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 66.8% | 68.7% | 71.2% | 0.97× | 1.46 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 33.2% | 31.3% | 28.8% | 1.09× | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 30.2% | 31.2% | 33.4% | 0.93× | 3.20 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 0.89× | 9.06 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 84.2% | 83.0% | 81.5% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 71.8% | 77.6% | 75.7% | 1.03× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 55.1% | 55.0% | 49.0% | 1.12× | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 44.9% | 45.0% | 51.0% | 0.88× | 2.22 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 28.2% | 22.4% | 24.3% | 0.92× | 4.47 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 15.8% | 17.0% | 18.5% | 0.92× | 5.88 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient not to score in both halves | 74.9% | 74.1% | 67.8% | 1.09× | 1.35 |
| Paris FC not to score in both halves | 74.7% | 74.1% | 78.0% | 0.95× | 1.35 |
| Paris FC to score in both halves | 25.3% | 25.9% | 22.0% | 1.18× | 3.86 |
| Lorient to score in both halves | 25.1% | 25.9% | 32.2% | 0.81× | 3.86 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 59.4% | 58.7% | 54.0% | 1.09× | 1.70 |
| Only Lorient scores | 19.0% | 16.0% | 23.8% | 0.67× | 6.23 |
| Only Paris FC scores | 16.3% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 1.02× | 6.24 |
| Neither team scores | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 1.07× | 14.06 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 22.8% | 22.6% | 23.1% | 0.98× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 20.6% | 1.10× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 16.5% | 17.4% | 17.1% | 1.02× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 15.4% | 17.4% | 16.2% | 1.07× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 0.88× | 13.12 |
| 6 or more goals | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 0.91× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 1.14× | 13.14 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.6% | 37.3% | 37.9% | 0.98× | 2.68 |
| No goals in 1st half | 33.2% | 35.8% | 28.8% | 1.24× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 20.2% | 21.6% | 21.1% | 1.02× | 4.64 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 0.88× | 9.15 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 55.1% | 53.4% | 49.0% | 1.09× | 1.87 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 29.1% | 29.8% | 32.6% | 0.91× | 3.36 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 15.8% | 16.9% | 18.5% | 0.91× | 5.93 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC not to win both halves | 91.2% | 94.1% | 90.9% | 1.03× | 1.06 |
| Lorient not to win both halves | 90.3% | 94.0% | 83.3% | 1.13× | 1.06 |
| Lorient to win both halves | 9.7% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 0.36× | 16.80 |
| Paris FC to win both halves | 8.8% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 0.65× | 16.86 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient to win either half | 54.8% | 54.4% | 58.6% | 0.93× | 1.84 |
| Paris FC to win either half | 50.7% | 54.3% | 45.8% | 1.18× | 1.84 |
| Paris FC to win neither half | 49.3% | 45.7% | 54.2% | 0.84× | 2.19 |
| Lorient to win neither half | 45.2% | 45.6% | 41.4% | 1.10× | 2.19 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC not to win to nil | 83.7% | 83.1% | 84.2% | 0.99× | 1.20 |
| Lorient not to win to nil | 81.0% | 83.1% | 76.2% | 1.09× | 1.20 |
| Lorient to win to nil | 19.0% | 16.9% | 23.8% | 0.71× | 5.91 |
| Paris FC to win to nil | 16.3% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 1.07× | 5.92 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24.5% | 24.1% | 22.9% | 1.05× | 4.15 |
| Lorient by 1 | 20.5% | 24.1% | 21.4% | 1.13× | 4.15 |
| Paris FC by 1 | 19.0% | 17.0% | 15.0% | 1.13× | 5.87 |
| Lorient by 2 | 12.0% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 0.78× | 8.51 |
| Paris FC by 2 | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 1.23× | 8.51 |
| Lorient by 3+ | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 0.73× | 13.89 |
| Paris FC by 3+ | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 1.03× | 13.90 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 0.49 xGParis FC 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Paris FC |
Maxime Lopez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Paris FC |
Pablo Pagis | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 29' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 29' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adama Camara |
| 31' |
 Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dembo Sylla |
| 32' |
Lorient |
Montassar Talbi | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 33' |
Lorient |
Souleymane Isaak Touré | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Paris FC |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 39' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 50' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Koné |
| 56' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dembo Sylla |
| 61' |
Paris FC |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Paris FC |
Adama Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 67' |
Lorient |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 70' |
Paris FC |
Pablo Pagis | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Paris FC |
Pablo Pagis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lorient |
Arsène Kouassi | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Paris FC |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Paris FC |
Rudy Matondo | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Paris FC |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamari Traore |
| 89' |
Paris FC |
Omar Sissoko | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hamari Traore |
| 95' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Luca Koleosho AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Maxime Lopez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hamari Traore DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Samir Chergui DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilan Kebbal AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Adama Camara DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Zabi Gueu Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Otávio Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Sissoko Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Dembo Sylla DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Souleymane Isaak Touré DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alec Georgen MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mamadou Koné FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Isak Jensen AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gabin Bernardeau Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ibrahima Baldé Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nosa Obaretin Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |