Lorient v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
1.61 – 0.57
Goals − xG
-0.57 – +0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
36.5%
Draw
26.3%
Strasbourg win
37.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLWLDWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 14.4 xG
conceded 13
from 16.6 xG
Strasbourg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLWLDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 16.6 xG
conceded 21
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.41 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 2.57 xGStrasbourg 2.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 8' |
 Strasbourg |
Rafael Luís | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gessime Yassine |
| 18' |
Strasbourg |
Rafael Luís | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw |
| 21' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 23' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 25' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Panos Katseris |
| 32' |
Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 35' |
Lorient |
Nathaniel Adjei | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 35' |
Lorient |
Nathaniel Adjei | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Lorient |
Abdoulaye Faye | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 37' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 46' |
Strasbourg |
Maxi Oyedele | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Strasbourg |
Rafael Luís | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 59' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Adjei |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Nathaniel Adjei | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 61' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rafael Luís |
| 67' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxi Oyedele |
| 69' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Panos Katseris |
| 83' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gessime Yassine |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Bamo Meïté | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 91' |
Lorient |
Nathaniel Adjei | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 95' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 97' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Luís |
| 98' |
Strasbourg |
Andrew Omobamidele | 0.55 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Rafael Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Maxi Oyedele DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gessime Yassine ML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| Junior Mwanga DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Julio Enciso FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Diego Moreira Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Emanuel Emegha Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.69 |
| Panos Katseris DMR | 86 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.28 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.87 | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Silva Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |