Lorient v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 12 Sep 2026, 18:52 UTC

Lorient

2–2

0.69 – 1.34 xG

Toulouse

Shots

10 – 13

On target

3 – 4

Shots in box

6 – 13

xG per shot

0.07 – 0.10

Set-piece xG

0.15 – 0.49

Goals − xG

+1.31 – +0.66

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 12 Sep, 11:38 · 7h before kick-off

Lorient win

43.4%

model 44.6%

Draw

28.3%

model 26.2%

Toulouse win

28.3%

model 29.3%

432828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
1-0 11.1%
2-1 9.0%
0-1 8.6%
2-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.2%	Under 2.5	52.8%
BTTS yes	51.5%	BTTS no	48.5%
Lorient 1+	76.4%	Lorient 2+	42.4%
Toulouse 1+	67.3%	Toulouse 2+	30.8%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.12. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Under 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 57%

67.1% fair odds 1.49

strong signal · 9065 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Toulouse not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 84%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 12208 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lorient carry the stronger rating, 1579 Elo against 1519.
Lorient have created 1.49 xG a match over their last five while Toulouse have allowed 1.67.
At home Lorient average 1.46 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lorient have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 28.3% for Toulouse and 28.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.45 for Lorient and 1.12 for Toulouse.

Why Lorient

Lorient carry the stronger rating, 1579 Elo against 1519. Lorient have created 1.49 xG a match over their last five while Toulouse have allowed 1.67. At home Lorient average 1.46 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Toulouse can win

Toulouse have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Lorient have allowed 1.62. Away from home Toulouse average 0.80 xG a match.

Key players

Lorient's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (0.40), Mamadou Koné (0.37), Pablo Pagis (0.36). Toulouse's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thomas Jørgensen (0.33), Aron Dønnum (0.31), Christ Tapé (0.30).

Availability

2 of Lorient's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Lorient's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Toulouse's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lorient: 51% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. Toulouse: 46% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.55 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-12 15:20 · team_stats 2026-09-12 06:04 · availability 2026-09-12 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Lorient are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLDLWDLWW last 10 scored 13 from 12.4 xG conceded 10 from 12.6 xG

Toulouse have scored 16 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 12.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLDLDWDW last 10 scored 16 from 18.0 xG conceded 13 from 12.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	422631	1.40–1.16	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	372736	1.23–1.22	1-1 13%	44%	50%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	372736	1.23–1.21	1-1 13%	44%	50%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to win	39.8%	36.2%	45.6%	0.80×	2.76
Toulouse to win	34.9%	30.6%	31.8%	0.96×	3.27
Draw	25.3%	27.7%	22.8%	1.22×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient & not both score	20.1%	21.8%	23.7%	0.92×	4.60
Lorient & both teams score	19.7%	18.0%	22.0%	0.82×	5.55
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.55
Toulouse & both teams score	17.5%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.55
Toulouse & not both score	17.4%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.55
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.4%	6.6%	1.27×	11.97

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient & over 1.5	30.8%	31.0%	35.7%	0.87×	3.22
Lorient & under 3.5	27.2%	25.9%	28.9%	0.90×	3.85
Toulouse & over 1.5	26.6%	25.9%	25.6%	1.01×	3.86
Lorient & over 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Toulouse & under 3.5	24.3%	21.6%	20.7%	1.04×	4.63
Toulouse & over 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	20.0%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.57
Draw & under 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.57
Lorient & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.57
Toulouse & under 2.5	13.8%	12.9%	12.0%	1.07×	7.78
Lorient & over 3.5	12.6%	12.9%	16.8%	0.76×	7.78
Toulouse & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	11.2%	1.14×	7.78
Lorient & under 1.5	9.0%	8.0%	10.0%	0.80×	12.57
Toulouse & under 1.5	8.3%	8.0%	6.4%	1.24×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	8.0%	6.6%	1.21×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	8.0%	6.4%	1.24×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	8.0%	6.4%	1.24×	12.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (1UP)	56.6%	58.0%	58.0%	1.00×	1.72
Toulouse (1UP)	52.4%	52.8%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (2UP)	39.8%	37.3%	47.1%	0.79×	2.68
Toulouse (2UP)	34.9%	31.0%	34.2%	0.91×	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to win 2nd half	39.8%	36.0%	42.1%	0.86×	2.78
2nd half drawn	33.6%	34.5%	31.2%	1.11×	2.90
Toulouse to win 2nd half	26.5%	26.4%	26.8%	0.98×	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	84.3%	83.3%	1.01×	1.19
Toulouse over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.9%	53.3%	49.8%	1.07×	1.88
Toulouse under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.1%	46.7%	50.2%	0.93×	2.14
Toulouse over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	15.7%	16.7%	0.94×	6.37

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	73.8%	75.4%	0.98×	1.36
Lorient over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.1%	62.6%	61.8%	1.01×	1.60
Lorient under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.9%	37.4%	38.2%	0.98×	2.67
Lorient over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	26.2%	24.6%	1.06×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (+2.5)	92.9%	92.1%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Toulouse (+1.5)	81.1%	82.6%	75.0%	1.10×	1.21
Lorient (+0.5)	65.1%	68.7%	68.2%	1.01×	1.46
Toulouse (+0.5)	60.2%	63.0%	54.4%	1.16×	1.59
Lorient (-0.5)	39.8%	37.0%	45.6%	0.81×	2.71
Toulouse (-0.5)	34.9%	31.3%	31.8%	0.98×	3.19
Lorient (-1.5)	18.9%	17.4%	25.0%	0.70×	5.74
Lorient (-2.5)	7.1%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede	76.4%	78.7%	77.5%	1.02×	1.27
Toulouse clean sheet	23.6%	21.3%	22.5%	0.95×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse clean sheet in 1st half	62.3%	64.8%	52.3%	1.24×	1.54
Toulouse to concede in 1st half	37.7%	35.2%	47.7%	0.74×	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede in 2nd half	62.1%	60.2%	61.8%	0.97×	1.66
Toulouse clean sheet in 2nd half	37.9%	39.8%	38.2%	1.04×	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 6.5 corners	81.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Toulouse over 2.5 corners	72.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Toulouse under 5.5 corners	71.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Toulouse under 4.5 corners	58.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Toulouse over 3.5 corners	56.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Toulouse under 3.5 corners	43.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Toulouse over 4.5 corners	41.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Toulouse over 5.5 corners	28.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Toulouse under 2.5 corners	27.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Toulouse over 6.5 corners	19.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.4%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Toulouse under 2.5 goals	84.9%	81.3%	84.6%	0.96×	1.23
Toulouse over 0.5 goals	73.7%	71.9%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
Toulouse under 1.5 goals	61.4%	63.5%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Toulouse over 1.5 goals	38.6%	36.5%	36.8%	0.99×	2.74
Toulouse under 0.5 goals	26.3%	28.1%	30.1%	0.93×	3.56
Toulouse over 2.5 goals	15.1%	18.7%	15.4%	1.21×	5.34
Toulouse over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.6%	6.6%	0.39×	38.77

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 1st half	87.7%	89.0%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Toulouse under 0.5 in 1st half	54.7%	55.8%	57.3%	0.98×	1.79
Toulouse over 0.5 in 1st half	45.3%	44.2%	42.7%	1.03×	2.26
Toulouse over 1.5 in 1st half	12.3%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.08

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse scores equally in both	39.2%	36.5%	42.0%	0.87×	2.74
Toulouse scores more in 2nd half	34.3%	34.2%	33.1%	1.03×	2.93
Toulouse scores more in 1st half	26.4%	26.1%	25.1%	1.04×	3.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (away no bet)	61.1%	62.0%	66.7%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.9%	38.0%	33.3%	1.14×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse even goals	53.5%	52.8%	56.3%	0.94×	1.90
Toulouse odd goals	46.6%	47.2%	43.7%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.1%	87.6%	83.0%	1.05×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.9%	12.4%	17.0%	0.73×	8.03

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.2%	68.3%	65.5%	1.04×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.8%	31.7%	34.5%	0.92×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.4%	55.1%	60.2%	0.92×	1.82
Lorient to score 2+ in a row	33.5%	29.1%	38.1%	0.77×	3.43
Toulouse to score 2+ in a row	29.7%	25.1%	28.1%	0.89×	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.7%	16.4%	22.6%	0.72×	6.11
Lorient to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.1%	14.0%	0.86×	8.26
Toulouse to score 3+ in a row	9.0%	5.7%	9.2%	0.62×	17.61

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient corners (+3.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Toulouse corners (+3.5)	79.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lorient corners (+2.5)	78.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Toulouse corners (+2.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lorient corners (+1.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Toulouse corners (+1.5)	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lorient corners (-1.5)	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Toulouse corners (-1.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lorient corners (-2.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Toulouse corners (-2.5)	21.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lorient corners (-3.5)	21.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Toulouse corners (-3.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	26.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	24.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	18.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.4%	10.1%	1.12×	8.80
1-0	9.0%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.53
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.53
0-1	8.3%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.53
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.53
2-0	6.5%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.53
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.53
0-2	5.5%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.53
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.53
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	57.67
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.68
1-3	3.6%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.66
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.93×	57.67
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	57.68
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	57.66
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	57.66
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	57.67
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	57.68
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	57.67
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	57.67
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	57.68
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	57.68
Any other score	2.8%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	57.67

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (2nd half DNB)	60.0%	60.9%	61.1%	1.00×	1.64
Toulouse (2nd half DNB)	40.0%	39.1%	38.9%	1.00×	2.56

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse leading at HT (DNB)	57.8%	58.5%	46.8%	1.25×	1.71
Lorient leading at HT (DNB)	42.2%	41.5%	53.2%	0.78×	2.41

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or Toulouse (12)	74.7%	72.3%	77.2%	0.94×	1.38
Lorient or draw (1X)	65.1%	69.4%	68.2%	1.02×	1.44
Toulouse or draw (X2)	60.2%	63.8%	54.4%	1.17×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse or draw at HT	76.6%	79.9%	67.2%	1.19×	1.25
Lorient or draw at HT	67.9%	66.3%	71.1%	0.93×	1.51
Lorient or Toulouse at HT	55.5%	56.9%	61.5%	0.93×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or draw (1UP)	65.1%	75.8%	72.5%	1.05×	1.32
Toulouse or draw (1UP)	60.2%	71.6%	62.2%	1.15×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or draw in 2nd half	73.5%	73.6%	73.2%	1.01×	1.36
Lorient or Toulouse in 2nd half	66.4%	65.5%	68.8%	0.95×	1.53
Toulouse or draw in 2nd half	60.2%	64.0%	57.9%	1.11×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.2%	61.7%	56.8%	1.09×	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.8%	38.3%	43.2%	0.89×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (DNB)	53.3%	50.0%	58.9%	0.85×	2.00
Toulouse (DNB)	46.7%	50.0%	41.1%	1.21×	2.00

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to score first	48.7%	45.6%	49.3%	0.93×	2.19
Toulouse to score first	45.1%	45.4%	44.3%	1.03×	2.20
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	6.6%	1.14×	13.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.3%	54.8%	54.0%	1.01×	1.83
Not both teams to score	43.7%	45.2%	46.0%	0.98×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.4%	41.7%	44.0%	0.95×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.4%	38.6%	35.7%	1.08×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.3%	10.1%	1.21×	8.16
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	10.5%	0.80×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	82.5%	84.7%	0.97×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	17.5%	15.3%	1.14×	5.72

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.7%	67.6%	69.9%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.3%	32.4%	30.1%	1.08×	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.2%	59.3%	57.4%	1.03×	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	26.8%	26.6%	23.7%	1.12×	3.76
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.7%	12.6%	0.85×	9.34
Both score in both halves	5.5%	6.7%	6.6%	1.03×	14.87

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.9%	82.5%	81.0%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.1%	17.5%	19.0%	0.92×	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.9%	53.4%	59.4%	0.90×	1.87
A half without a goal	46.1%	46.6%	40.6%	1.15×	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	46.9%	43.4%	1.08×	2.13
4-6 goals	28.0%	27.0%	30.7%	0.88×	3.71
0-1 goals	23.4%	23.0%	22.6%	1.02×	4.34
7+ goals	2.4%	1.9%	3.6%	0.52×	53.98

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.8%	33.2%	1.08×	2.80
Toulouse to score exactly 0	26.3%	27.6%	30.1%	0.92×	3.62
Toulouse to score exactly 2	23.5%	22.5%	21.5%	1.05×	4.45
Toulouse to score 3+	15.1%	19.5%	15.4%	1.26×	5.13

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to score exactly 1	34.1%	32.6%	31.8%	1.03×	3.06
Lorient to score exactly 2	24.6%	23.4%	23.1%	1.01×	4.28
Lorient to score exactly 0	23.6%	23.3%	22.5%	1.04×	4.28
Lorient to score 3+	17.7%	19.2%	22.9%	0.84×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.5%	43.1%	38.5%	1.12×	2.32
Toulouse leading at HT	32.1%	33.7%	28.9%	1.17×	2.97
Lorient leading at HT	23.4%	20.1%	32.8%	0.61×	4.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient -1: 2	60.2%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Lorient -1: X	20.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Lorient -1: 1	18.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:1)	60.2%	61.5%	54.4%	1.13×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.4%	20.7%	1.18×	4.10
Lorient (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:2)	81.1%	83.1%	75.0%	1.11×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.8%	10.8%	15.1%	0.72×	9.23
Lorient (0:2)	7.1%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.01

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:3)	92.9%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.9%	2.4%	6.1%	0.39×	42.25
Lorient (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.36

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.7%	0.46×	81.66
Lorient (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.6%	0.78×	81.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (1:0)	65.1%	69.4%	68.2%	1.02×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	19.3%	17.1%	15.1%	1.13×	5.85
Toulouse (1:0)	15.6%	17.1%	16.8%	1.01×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (2:0)	84.4%	84.6%	83.2%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.1%	10.4%	9.8%	1.06×	9.63
Toulouse (2:0)	5.5%	6.5%	7.2%	0.91×	15.28

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.0%	50.3%	47.3%	1.06×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	24.0%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.15
Halves equal	24.0%	24.1%	26.1%	0.93×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede	73.7%	73.2%	69.9%	1.05×	1.37
Lorient clean sheet	26.3%	26.8%	30.1%	0.89×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient clean sheet in 1st half	54.7%	55.8%	57.3%	0.98×	1.79
Lorient to concede in 1st half	45.3%	44.2%	42.7%	1.03×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede in 2nd half	51.9%	53.2%	49.8%	1.07×	1.88
Lorient clean sheet in 2nd half	48.1%	46.8%	50.2%	0.93×	2.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient over 2.5 corners	77.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Lorient under 6.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Lorient under 5.5 corners	64.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Lorient over 3.5 corners	62.6%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Lorient under 4.5 corners	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lorient over 4.5 corners	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lorient under 3.5 corners	37.4%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Lorient over 5.5 corners	35.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Lorient over 6.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lorient under 2.5 corners	22.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.1%	91.7%	1.00×	1.09
Lorient under 2.5 goals	82.3%	81.9%	77.1%	1.06×	1.22
Lorient over 0.5 goals	76.4%	77.4%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Lorient under 1.5 goals	57.7%	58.6%	54.1%	1.08×	1.71
Lorient over 1.5 goals	42.3%	41.4%	45.9%	0.90×	2.41
Lorient under 0.5 goals	23.6%	22.6%	22.5%	1.01×	4.43
Lorient over 2.5 goals	17.7%	18.1%	22.9%	0.79×	5.54
Lorient over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.72

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 1.5 in 1st half	91.8%	95.4%	87.4%	1.09×	1.05
Lorient under 0.5 in 1st half	62.3%	64.6%	52.3%	1.24×	1.55
Lorient over 0.5 in 1st half	37.7%	35.4%	47.7%	0.74×	2.83
Lorient over 1.5 in 1st half	8.2%	4.6%	12.6%	0.37×	21.52

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient scores more in 2nd half	46.7%	47.0%	40.9%	1.15×	2.13
Lorient scores equally in both	35.7%	37.6%	36.7%	1.03×	2.66
Lorient scores more in 1st half	17.5%	14.3%	22.6%	0.63×	7.00

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (home no bet)	57.9%	56.1%	58.3%	0.96×	1.78
Draw (home no bet)	42.1%	43.9%	41.7%	1.05×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient even goals	52.8%	50.4%	51.3%	0.98×	1.98
Lorient odd goals	47.2%	49.6%	48.7%	1.02×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.1%	32.4%	28.5%	1.13×	3.09
HT 0-1	20.6%	24.1%	16.8%	1.43×	4.15
HT 1-0	16.1%	18.6%	21.1%	0.88×	5.37
HT 1-1	9.7%	7.2%	9.5%	0.75×	13.99
HT 0-2	6.2%	7.1%	5.5%	1.30×	14.04
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.3%	6.6%	0.35×	43.42
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.3%	4.7%	0.49×	43.44
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.49
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.54
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	0.8%	2.94×	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse at HT / Toulouse at FT	21.6%	21.7%	19.3%	1.12×	4.61
Lorient at HT / Lorient at FT	18.2%	16.8%	27.5%	0.61×	5.96
Draw at HT / Lorient at FT	17.7%	16.8%	14.8%	1.13×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.88
Draw at HT / Toulouse at FT	11.8%	12.7%	11.1%	1.14×	7.90
Toulouse at HT / Draw at FT	6.6%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.69
Toulouse at HT / Lorient at FT	3.9%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.77
Lorient at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.78
Lorient at HT / Toulouse at FT	1.5%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to score last	48.7%	46.8%	53.2%	0.88×	2.14
Toulouse to score last	45.1%	46.6%	40.4%	1.15×	2.15
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	6.6%	1.14×	13.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.6%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Lorient to lead by 1 at any time	56.6%	55.1%	58.0%	0.95×	1.82
Toulouse to lead by 1 at any time	52.4%	50.8%	49.6%	1.02×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.8%	43.9%	51.3%	0.86×	2.28
Lorient to lead by 2 at any time	25.3%	25.4%	29.5%	0.86×	3.93
Toulouse to lead by 2 at any time	21.7%	19.6%	22.0%	0.89×	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.4%	14.9%	20.1%	0.74×	6.73
Lorient to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	11.9%	0.56×	15.02
Toulouse to lead by 3 at any time	7.2%	6.6%	8.4%	0.79×	15.11

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient most corners	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Toulouse most corners	39.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.5%	76.4%	1.03×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.2%	72.3%	73.9%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.2%	72.3%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.4%	63.2%	59.4%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.2%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.2%	53.4%	50.9%	1.05×	1.87
2-3 goals	46.2%	48.5%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.3%	48.5%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.2%	43.6%	39.3%	1.11×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.7%	39.3%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.0%	30.6%	30.7%	1.00×	3.27
4-5 goals	24.0%	24.8%	25.7%	0.96×	4.03
5-6 goals	12.6%	15.0%	13.7%	1.10×	6.65
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	3.6%	0.72×	38.97

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient never behind	41.4%	48.2%	50.4%	0.96×	2.08
Toulouse never behind	37.2%	44.7%	42.0%	1.06×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	51.0%	47.3%	1.08×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.0%	52.7%	0.93×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.4%	51.6%	1.11×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.6%	48.4%	0.88×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.0%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.0%	50.5%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.7%	92.2%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.1%	87.4%	82.8%	1.06×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	77.2%	77.4%	1.00×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	69.6%	66.0%	65.8%	1.00×	1.52
Over 2.5 goals	52.6%	53.0%	54.3%	0.98×	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.4%	47.0%	45.7%	1.03×	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	30.4%	34.0%	34.2%	1.00×	2.94
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.39
Over 4.5 goals	14.9%	12.6%	17.2%	0.73×	7.96
Over 5.5 goals	6.3%	7.8%	8.6%	0.91×	12.84
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	6.6%	1.19×	12.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.1%	92.4%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.4%	80.5%	79.3%	1.01×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.2%	67.7%	70.6%	0.96×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.0%	61.6%	57.2%	1.08×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.0%	38.4%	42.8%	0.90×	2.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.8%	32.3%	29.4%	1.10×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.7%	19.5%	20.7%	0.94×	5.13
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.9%	7.6%	9.4%	0.81×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	3.8%	0.75×	35.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.5%	92.6%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.2%	66.1%	1.08×	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	69.0%	71.5%	0.97×	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.0%	28.5%	1.09×	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.8%	33.9%	0.85×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.5%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.46

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.8%	82.7%	81.4%	1.02×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.6%	79.7%	75.4%	1.06×	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	53.3%	48.7%	1.09×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	46.7%	51.3%	0.91×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.4%	20.3%	24.6%	0.82×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.2%	17.3%	18.6%	0.93×	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.2%	68.0%	1.15×	1.28
Toulouse not to score in both halves	76.4%	78.2%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Toulouse to score in both halves	23.6%	21.8%	22.6%	0.96×	4.59
Lorient to score in both halves	23.4%	21.8%	32.0%	0.68×	4.59

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.3%	58.6%	54.0%	1.09×	1.71
Only Lorient scores	20.1%	22.0%	23.7%	0.93×	4.55
Only Toulouse scores	17.4%	16.0%	16.1%	1.00×	6.25
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.1%	6.6%	1.09×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.0%	22.4%	23.2%	0.97×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.4%	20.3%	1.11×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	17.2%	17.5%	16.2%	1.08×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	17.5%	17.2%	1.02×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	8.6%	7.8%	8.7%	0.89×	12.85
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.8%	6.6%	1.19×	12.86
6 or more goals	6.3%	7.8%	8.6%	0.91×	12.86

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.1%	37.8%	0.98×	2.70
No goals in 1st half	34.1%	35.9%	28.5%	1.26×	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	19.8%	15.3%	21.2%	0.72×	6.53
3+ goals in 1st half	9.5%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.46

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.3%	48.7%	1.05×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	31.0%	33.3%	32.9%	1.01×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	18.2%	17.3%	18.6%	0.93×	5.80

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to win both halves	91.5%	93.9%	90.6%	1.04×	1.06
Lorient not to win both halves	90.7%	93.9%	83.3%	1.13×	1.07
Lorient to win both halves	9.3%	6.1%	16.7%	0.36×	16.46
Toulouse to win both halves	8.5%	6.1%	9.4%	0.65×	16.52

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to win either half	53.9%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Toulouse to win either half	50.1%	54.8%	46.3%	1.18×	1.83
Toulouse to win neither half	49.9%	45.2%	53.7%	0.84×	2.21
Lorient to win neither half	46.1%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to win to nil	82.6%	83.2%	83.9%	0.99×	1.20
Lorient not to win to nil	79.9%	78.4%	76.3%	1.03×	1.28
Lorient to win to nil	20.1%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Toulouse to win to nil	17.4%	16.8%	16.1%	1.05×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	27.7%	22.8%	1.22×	3.61
Lorient by 1	20.9%	24.2%	20.7%	1.16×	4.14
Toulouse by 1	19.3%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.92
Lorient by 2	11.8%	11.7%	15.1%	0.77×	8.53
Toulouse by 2	10.1%	11.7%	9.8%	1.19×	8.53
Lorient by 3+	7.1%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.77
Toulouse by 3+	5.5%	7.3%	7.2%	1.01×	13.77

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Lorient 0.69 xGToulouse 1.34 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lorient attacking right Toulouse attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
7'	Lorient	Arsène Kouassi	0.02	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jean-Victor Makengo
9'	Lorient	Noah Cadiou	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
13'	Toulouse	Ilyas Azizi	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Shot On Post	—
13'	Toulouse	Jacen Russell-Rowe	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Rafik Messali
13'	Toulouse	Thomas Jørgensen	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jacen Russell-Rowe
16'	Lorient	Montassar Talbi	0.07	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Arsène Kouassi
28'	Toulouse	Thomas Jørgensen	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
36'	Lorient	Ibrahima Baldé	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Panos Katseris
38'	Lorient	Noah Mbamba-Muanda	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Panos Katseris
47'	Toulouse	Casper Tengstedt	0.49	From Corner	—	Goal	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
50'	Toulouse	Jacen Russell-Rowe	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ilyas Azizi
51'	Toulouse	Ilyas Azizi	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
57'	Lorient	Montassar Talbi	0.06	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Arsène Kouassi
60'	Toulouse	Thomas Jørgensen	0.02	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
63'	Lorient	Jean-Victor Makengo	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Shot On Post	Arsène Kouassi
67'	Toulouse	Thomas Jørgensen	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
71'	Lorient	Théo Le Bris	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
78'	Lorient	Jean-Victor Makengo	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Noah Cadiou
80'	Toulouse	Thomas Jørgensen	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Casper Tengstedt
81'	Toulouse	Cristian Cásseres Jr.	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Niklas Schmidt
82'	Toulouse	Jacen Russell-Rowe	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Niko Sigur
85'	Toulouse	Casper Tengstedt	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Jacen Russell-Rowe
92'	Lorient	Isak Jensen	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Théo Le Bris

Players

Toulouse

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Thomas Jørgensen AMC	90	1	0	5	0	0.40	0.00	0.48
Jacen Russell-Rowe FW	90	0	0	3	2	0.22	0.20	0.46
Cristian Cásseres Jr. DMC	90	0	2	1	5	0.04	0.71	0.63
Mark McKenzie DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.26
Mathys Niflore GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Seny Koumbassa DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.18
Niklas Schmidt DMC	86	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.40
Christ Tapé DL	86	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Ilyas Azizi AML	69	0	0	2	1	0.08	0.09	0.20
Rafik Messali DR	48	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.08
Santiago Hidalgo AMR	48	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Casper Tengstedt Sub	42	1	0	2	1	0.61	0.13	0.32
Niko Sigur Sub	42	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.05	0.26
Sion Oppong Sub	21	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Ismaïl Diallo Sub	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Alexis Vossah Sub	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12

Lorient

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Jean-Victor Makengo AMC	90	0	0	2	1	0.16	0.02	0.16
Montassar Talbi DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.13	0.00	0.00
Noah Cadiou MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.03	0.05	0.34
Arsène Kouassi DML	90	0	0	1	3	0.02	0.24	0.18
Dembo Sylla DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Yvon Mvogo GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nathaniel Adjei DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.11
Ibrahima Baldé FW	71	1	0	1	0	0.14	0.00	0.27
Noah Mbamba-Muanda MC	71	1	0	1	0	0.13	0.00	0.24
Panos Katseris DMR	60	0	2	0	2	0.00	0.27	0.27
Gabin Bernardeau AMC	60	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Théo Le Bris Sub	30	0	0	1	1	0.06	0.02	0.08
Isak Jensen Sub	30	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.18
Arthur Avom Sub	19	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Mamadou Koné Sub	19	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Lorient v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Lorient

Why the draw is live

Why Toulouse can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Toulouse

Lorient

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