Lorient v Troyes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.84
Goals − xG
-0.02 – +0.32
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
58.7%
Draw
24.3%
Troyes win
17.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–0.76 | 1-0 15% | 43% | 43% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 1.02 xGTroyes 1.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Troyes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lorient |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Troyes |
Renaud Ripart | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Merwan Ifnaoui |
| 9' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gabin Bernardeau |
| 11' |
Troyes |
Renaud Ripart | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Mille |
| 15' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Koné |
| 20' |
Lorient |
Gabin Bernardeau | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Koné |
| 25' |
Troyes |
Antoine Mille | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Merwan Ifnaoui |
| 28' |
Troyes |
Renaud Ripart | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 34' |
Troyes |
Iron Gomis | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Picard |
| 35' |
Troyes |
Renaud Ripart | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Merwan Ifnaoui |
| 37' |
Troyes |
Lucas Maronnier | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antoine Mille |
| 45' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 49' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 50' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 54' |
Lorient |
Mamadou Koné | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Gabin Bernardeau |
| 61' |
Troyes |
Adrien Monfray | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Merwan Ifnaoui |
| 61' |
Troyes |
Iron Gomis | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Picard |
| 61' |
Troyes |
Michel Diaz | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hugo Picard |
| 67' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 73' |
Troyes |
Renaud Ripart | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Souleymane Faye |
| 78' |
Lorient |
Souleymane Faye | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lorient |
Montassar Talbi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Panos Katseris |
Players
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.67 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dembo Sylla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mamadou Koné FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Gabin Bernardeau AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Jensen Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Souleymane Faye Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Noah Mbamba-Muanda Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Troyes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Adrien Monfray DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Patrick Beach GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Anis Ouzenadji DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mouhamed Diop DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Merwan Ifnaoui AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.68 |
| Renaud Ripart FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Lucas Maronnier DR | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Iron Gomis AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Antoine Mille DMC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| Hugo Picard AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.77 |
| Kandet Diawara Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexandre Phliponeau Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Donkor Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yacouba Koné Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |