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Los Chankas v Cusco FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Los Chankas win
38.5%
model 39.7%
Draw
23.2%
model 23.1%
Cusco FC win
38.3%
model 37.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.5%
  2. 2-1 8.5%
  3. 1-2 8.2%
  4. 1-0 7.7%
  5. 0-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.559.0% Under 2.541.0%
BTTS yes60.9% BTTS no39.1%
Los Chankas 1+78.9% Los Chankas 2+46.1%
Cusco FC 1+77.7% Cusco FC 2+44.3%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
86/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 50%
58.4% fair odds 1.71
moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Cusco FC (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Los Chankas.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Los Chankas have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Cusco FC and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Los Chankas and 1.50 for Cusco FC.

Why Los Chankas

Nothing in the data singles out Los Chankas.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.56 to 1.50. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Cusco FC can win

Cusco FC carry the stronger rating, 1529 Elo against 1499.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Los Chankas, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cusco FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Los Chankas: 44% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cusco FC: 56% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Los Chankas are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.56–1.50 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.58–1.51 1-1 10% 60% 61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to win 40.1% 42.9% 49.8% 0.86× 2.33
Cusco FC to win 36.9% 36.3% 25.4% 1.43× 2.75
Draw 23.0% 24.5% 25.0% 0.98× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas & both teams score 22.1% 21.8% 23.6% 0.93× 4.59
Cusco FC & both teams score 20.5% 21.8% 13.2% 1.65× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
Los Chankas & not both score 18.0% 18.0% 26.4% 0.68× 5.56
Cusco FC & not both score 16.4% 18.0% 12.3% 1.46× 5.57
Draw & not both score 4.1% 4.9% 7.8% 0.63× 20.49
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas & over 1.5 32.5% 30.8% 38.0% 0.81× 3.25
Cusco FC & over 1.5 29.6% 26.1% 17.4% 1.50× 3.84
Los Chankas & over 2.5 26.8% 26.1% 30.8% 0.85× 3.84
Los Chankas & under 3.5 24.9% 21.6% 33.7% 0.64× 4.63
Cusco FC & over 2.5 24.5% 21.6% 14.5% 1.49× 4.63
Cusco FC & under 3.5 23.2% 21.6% 19.4% 1.11× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 17.4% 1.04× 5.55
Los Chankas & over 3.5 15.2% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 14.5% 12.8% 18.8% 0.68× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 14.5% 12.8% 18.8% 0.68× 7.79
Cusco FC & over 3.5 13.7% 12.8% 6.2% 2.08× 7.79
Los Chankas & under 2.5 13.3% 12.8% 19.2% 0.67× 7.79
Cusco FC & under 2.5 12.5% 12.8% 11.1% 1.16× 7.79
Los Chankas & under 1.5 7.6% 7.9% 12.0% 0.66× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 8.5% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.5% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.63
Cusco FC & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 8.2% 0.97× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 4.1% 4.8% 7.8% 0.62× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (1UP) 58.2% 58.0% — — 1.73
Cusco FC (1UP) 55.5% 57.8% — — 1.73
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (2UP) 40.1% 46.9% — — 2.13
Cusco FC (2UP) 36.9% 37.3% — — 2.68
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to win 2nd half 33.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
Los Chankas to win 2nd half 33.6% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half drawn 32.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.0% 79.4% — — 1.26
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.6% 54.5% — — 1.83
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 2nd half 40.4% 45.5% — — 2.20
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 2nd half 23.0% 20.6% — — 4.86
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.2% 75.2% — — 1.33
Los Chankas over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.4% 58.3% — — 1.72
Los Chankas under 0.5 in 2nd half 40.6% 41.7% — — 2.40
Los Chankas over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.8% 24.8% — — 4.03
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (+2.5) 92.1% 92.1% 88.6% 1.04× 1.09
Cusco FC (+1.5) 80.3% 82.6% 75.4% 1.10× 1.21
Los Chankas (+0.5) 63.1% 62.9% 74.6% 0.84× 1.59
Cusco FC (+0.5) 59.9% 57.1% 50.2% 1.14× 1.75
Los Chankas (-0.5) 40.1% 42.9% 49.8% 0.86× 2.33
Cusco FC (-0.5) 36.9% 37.1% 25.4% 1.46× 2.70
Los Chankas (-1.5) 19.7% 17.4% 24.6% 0.71× 5.73
Los Chankas (-2.5) 7.9% 7.9% 11.4% 0.69× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to concede 79.5% 78.8% 80.1% 0.98× 1.27
Cusco FC clean sheet 20.5% 21.2% 19.9% 1.06× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC clean sheet in 1st half 50.6% 50.8% — — 1.97
Cusco FC to concede in 1st half 49.4% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to concede in 2nd half 59.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Cusco FC clean sheet in 2nd half 40.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 6.5 corners 84.1% 81.4% — — 1.23
Cusco FC under 5.5 corners 74.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Cusco FC over 2.5 corners 72.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
Cusco FC under 4.5 corners 61.0% 61.7% — — 1.62
Cusco FC over 3.5 corners 55.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Cusco FC under 3.5 corners 44.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
Cusco FC over 4.5 corners 39.0% 38.3% — — 2.61
Cusco FC under 2.5 corners 27.5% 28.4% — — 3.52
Cusco FC over 5.5 corners 25.6% 28.4% — — 3.53
Cusco FC over 6.5 corners 15.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 3.5 goals 93.3% 92.4% 97.5% 0.95× 1.08
Cusco FC under 2.5 goals 80.6% 81.5% 92.0% 0.89× 1.23
Cusco FC over 0.5 goals 77.9% 76.2% 65.9% 1.16× 1.31
Cusco FC under 1.5 goals 55.5% 59.4% 71.6% 0.83× 1.68
Cusco FC over 1.5 goals 44.5% 40.6% 28.4% 1.43× 2.46
Cusco FC under 0.5 goals 22.1% 23.8% 34.1% 0.70× 4.21
Cusco FC over 2.5 goals 19.4% 18.5% 8.0% 2.32× 5.40
Cusco FC over 3.5 goals 6.7% 7.6% 2.5% 3.01× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 1st half 87.7% 89.3% — — 1.12
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 1st half 54.7% 55.9% — — 1.79
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 1st half 45.3% 44.1% — — 2.27
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 1st half 12.3% 10.7% — — 9.31
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC scores more in 2nd half 40.8% 43.6% — — 2.29
Cusco FC scores equally in both 35.9% 37.3% — — 2.68
Cusco FC scores more in 1st half 23.2% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (away no bet) 63.5% 61.9% 66.6% 0.93× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 36.5% 38.1% 33.4% 1.14× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC even goals 52.4% 52.6% 56.9% 0.93× 1.90
Cusco FC odd goals 47.6% 47.4% 43.1% 1.10× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.2% 83.0% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.8% 17.0% — — 5.90
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 70.7% 67.6% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.3% 32.4% — — 3.08
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 61.9% 59.9% — — 1.67
Los Chankas to score 2+ in a row 36.7% 36.5% — — 2.74
Cusco FC to score 2+ in a row 34.2% 29.0% — — 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 23.4% 19.5% — — 5.12
Los Chankas to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.2% — — 8.22
Cusco FC to score 3+ in a row 11.2% 12.1% — — 8.25
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas corners (+3.5) 88.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Los Chankas corners (+2.5) 81.6% 79.8% — — 1.25
Cusco FC corners (+3.5) 79.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Los Chankas corners (+1.5) 73.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Cusco FC corners (+2.5) 70.8% 70.7% — — 1.41
Cusco FC corners (+1.5) 60.4% 61.8% — — 1.62
Los Chankas corners (-1.5) 39.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Los Chankas corners (-2.5) 29.2% 29.3% — — 3.42
Cusco FC corners (-1.5) 27.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Los Chankas corners (-3.5) 20.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Cusco FC corners (-2.5) 18.4% 20.2% — — 4.94
Cusco FC corners (-3.5) 11.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.3% 41.8% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 28.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 22.2% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.3% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 77.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 69.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 62.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 60.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 50.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 49.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 39.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 38.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 30.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 22.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 15.7% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.4% 11.5% 11.2% 1.02× 8.72
2-1 8.6% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.51
0-1 7.3% 7.4% 8.2% 0.91× 13.51
1-0 7.6% 7.4% 12.0% 0.62× 13.51
1-2 8.2% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.51
2-2 6.5% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.51
0-2 5.2% 7.4% 3.1% 2.40× 13.51
2-0 5.7% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.51
0-0 4.1% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.30
0-3 2.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.30
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.16× 58.31
1-3 4.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.30
1-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.31
2-3 3.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.30
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.31
3-0 3.0% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.30
3-1 4.5% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.29
3-2 3.4% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.30
3-3 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.31
3-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.37× 58.32
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.31
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.31
4-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.31
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 4.73× 58.32
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 9.47× 58.32
Any other score 4.1% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (2nd half DNB) 50.1% 54.4% — — 1.84
Los Chankas (2nd half DNB) 49.9% 45.6% — — 2.19
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas leading at HT (DNB) 54.0% 56.3% — — 1.78
Cusco FC leading at HT (DNB) 46.0% 43.7% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas or Cusco FC (12) 77.0% 75.5% 75.0% 1.01× 1.32
Los Chankas or draw (1X) 63.1% 63.7% 74.6% 0.85× 1.57
Cusco FC or draw (X2) 59.9% 57.1% 50.2% 1.14× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas or draw at HT 72.4% 74.5% — — 1.34
Cusco FC or draw at HT 67.7% 67.2% — — 1.49
Los Chankas or Cusco FC at HT 59.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas or draw (1UP) 63.1% 71.7% — — 1.40
Cusco FC or draw (1UP) 59.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas or Cusco FC in 2nd half 67.5% 66.0% — — 1.52
Cusco FC or draw in 2nd half 66.4% 66.0% — — 1.52
Los Chankas or draw in 2nd half 66.2% 66.0% — — 1.52
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.1% 61.2% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.9% 38.8% — — 2.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (DNB) 52.1% 50.9% 66.3% 0.77× 1.97
Cusco FC (DNB) 47.9% 49.1% 33.7% 1.46× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to score first 49.1% 45.9% — — 2.18
Cusco FC to score first 46.8% 45.8% — — 2.18
No goal scored 4.1% 4.4% — — 22.79
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 61.5% 56.6% 53.8% 1.05× 1.77
Not both teams to score 38.5% 43.4% 46.2% 0.94× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 51.1% 47.2% 42.8% 1.10× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 29.9% 33.3% 37.7% 0.88× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 10.4% 12.4% 11.2% 1.10× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.7% 8.3% 8.7% 0.95× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 79.1% 79.8% 85.7% 0.93× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 20.9% 20.2% 14.3% 1.41× 4.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 64.7% 66.0% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 50.4% 54.6% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 27.3% 26.9% — — 3.72
Both score 1st half only 14.4% 10.8% — — 9.27
Both score in both halves 7.9% 6.8% — — 14.70
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 77.7% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 22.3% 19.0% — — 5.27
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.3% 59.3% — — 1.69
A half without a goal 39.7% 40.7% — — 2.45
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.6% 42.2% 44.2% 0.95× 2.37
4-6 goals 33.5% 30.7% 26.8% 1.15× 3.25
0-1 goals 19.0% 20.2% 27.5% 0.74× 4.94
7+ goals 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.02× 54.17
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to score exactly 1 33.4% 33.8% 37.7% 0.90× 2.96
Cusco FC to score exactly 2 25.2% 27.4% 20.7% 1.33× 3.65
Cusco FC to score exactly 0 22.1% 22.3% 34.1% 0.65× 4.49
Cusco FC to score 3+ 19.4% 19.5% 8.0% 2.45× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to score exactly 1 32.5% 32.6% 33.0% 0.99× 3.07
Los Chankas to score exactly 2 25.7% 26.5% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Los Chankas to score 3+ 21.2% 23.3% 22.5% 1.04× 4.29
Los Chankas to score exactly 0 20.5% 23.3% 19.9% 1.17× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Los Chankas leading at HT 32.3% 32.8% — — 3.05
Cusco FC leading at HT 27.6% 25.5% — — 3.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas -1: 2 59.9% 56.8% — — 1.76
Los Chankas -1: X 20.4% 23.5% — — 4.26
Los Chankas -1: 1 19.7% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:1) 59.9% 55.9% 50.2% 1.11× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 20.4% 24.2% 25.4% 0.95× 4.13
Los Chankas (0:1) 19.7% 17.8% 24.6% 0.72× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:2) 80.3% 82.9% 75.4% 1.10× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.8% 11.0% 13.4% 0.82× 9.10
Los Chankas (0:2) 7.9% 7.7% 11.4% 0.67× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:3) 92.1% 92.7% 88.6% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.3% 5.8% 7.6% 0.76× 17.28
Los Chankas (0:3) 2.6% 2.4% 4.0% 0.60× 42.02
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:4) 97.4% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 2.5% 0.48× 81.69
Los Chankas (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 81.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (1:0) 63.1% 65.3% 74.6% 0.87× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 19.5% 17.1% 17.9% 0.95× 5.84
Cusco FC (1:0) 17.4% 17.1% 7.6% 2.25× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (2:0) 82.6% 84.6% 92.4% 0.92× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.7% 10.3% 5.6% 1.83× 9.73
Cusco FC (2:0) 6.7% 6.4% 2.2% 2.94× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.1% 49.9% — — 2.01
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.4% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to concede 77.9% 76.1% 65.9% 1.15× 1.32
Los Chankas clean sheet 22.1% 23.9% 34.1% 0.70× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas clean sheet in 1st half 54.7% 55.9% — — 1.79
Los Chankas to concede in 1st half 45.3% 44.1% — — 2.27
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to concede in 2nd half 59.6% 54.9% — — 1.82
Los Chankas clean sheet in 2nd half 40.4% 45.1% — — 2.22
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas over 2.5 corners 79.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Los Chankas under 6.5 corners 76.6% 76.5% — — 1.31
Los Chankas under 5.5 corners 65.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Los Chankas over 3.5 corners 64.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Los Chankas under 4.5 corners 51.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
Los Chankas over 4.5 corners 48.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Los Chankas under 3.5 corners 35.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Los Chankas over 5.5 corners 34.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
Los Chankas over 6.5 corners 23.4% 23.5% — — 4.26
Los Chankas under 2.5 corners 20.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 3.5 goals 92.4% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.09
Los Chankas over 0.5 goals 79.5% 77.8% 80.1% 0.97× 1.29
Los Chankas under 2.5 goals 78.8% 77.8% 77.5% 1.00× 1.29
Los Chankas under 1.5 goals 53.0% 53.2% 52.7% 1.01× 1.88
Los Chankas over 1.5 goals 47.0% 46.8% 47.3% 0.99× 2.14
Los Chankas over 2.5 goals 21.2% 22.2% 22.5% 0.99× 4.50
Los Chankas under 0.5 goals 20.5% 22.2% 19.9% 1.12× 4.50
Los Chankas over 3.5 goals 7.6% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.83
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 1.5 in 1st half 85.1% 90.1% — — 1.11
Los Chankas under 0.5 in 1st half 50.6% 50.6% — — 1.98
Los Chankas over 0.5 in 1st half 49.4% 49.4% — — 2.03
Los Chankas over 1.5 in 1st half 14.9% 9.9% — — 10.06
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas scores more in 2nd half 38.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
Los Chankas scores equally in both 35.2% 38.1% — — 2.63
Los Chankas scores more in 1st half 26.0% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (home no bet) 61.6% 60.0% 50.4% 1.19× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 38.4% 40.0% 49.6% 0.81× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas even goals 52.1% 50.7% 50.5% 1.00× 1.97
Los Chankas odd goals 47.9% 49.3% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 1-0 18.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 16.8% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 11.3% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.56
Any other HT score 5.5% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 0-2 5.0% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 2-1 3.9% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas at HT / Los Chankas at FT 23.8% 21.6% — — 4.62
Cusco FC at HT / Cusco FC at FT 20.1% 21.5% — — 4.65
Draw at HT / Cusco FC at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Los Chankas at FT 13.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.6% 12.7% — — 7.89
Los Chankas at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% — — 16.53
Cusco FC at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.84
Los Chankas at HT / Cusco FC at FT 3.0% 3.5% — — 28.91
Cusco FC at HT / Los Chankas at FT 2.6% 3.5% — — 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to score last 49.1% 46.4% — — 2.15
Cusco FC to score last 46.8% 46.3% — — 2.16
No goal scored 4.1% 4.4% — — 22.79
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.9% 95.5% — — 1.05
Los Chankas to lead by 1 at any time 58.2% 54.9% — — 1.82
Cusco FC to lead by 1 at any time 55.5% 54.8% — — 1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.3% 50.6% — — 1.98
Los Chankas to lead by 2 at any time 27.1% 25.3% — — 3.96
Cusco FC to lead by 2 at any time 24.6% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.3% 14.9% — — 6.73
Los Chankas to lead by 3 at any time 10.3% 10.6% — — 9.47
Cusco FC to lead by 3 at any time 9.0% 6.7% — — 14.97
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas most corners 51.1% 51.6% — — 1.94
Cusco FC most corners 37.4% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.5% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.5% 87.4% 87.1% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.2% 78.7% 70.8% 1.11× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.8% 78.7% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.6% 72.3% 67.4% 1.07× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.9% 63.3% 58.3% 1.09× 1.58
1-3 goals 58.5% 59.1% 63.9% 0.92× 1.69
3-6 goals 55.9% 59.1% 49.6% 1.19× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.4% 53.1% 46.2% 1.15× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.6% 43.6% 44.2% 0.99× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.7% 39.2% 37.1% 1.05× 2.55
1-2 goals 36.2% 39.2% 41.1% 0.95× 2.55
4-6 goals 33.5% 35.2% 26.8% 1.31× 2.84
4-5 goals 28.0% 30.2% 23.4% 1.29× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.2% 18.8% 12.7% 1.48× 5.31
7+ goals 3.8% 2.6% 1.8% 1.41× 39.10
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas never behind 40.4% 48.6% — — 2.06
Cusco FC never behind 37.7% 44.2% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.2% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.8% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.7% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.3% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.0% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.0% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.9% 95.4% 92.2% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 81.0% 82.3% 72.5% 1.14× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 79.9% 77.3% 85.7% 0.90× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 62.6% 61.7% 71.6% 0.86× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.7% 58.7% 51.3% 1.14× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 40.3% 41.3% 48.7% 0.85× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 37.4% 38.3% 28.4% 1.35× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 20.1% 22.7% 14.3% 1.59× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 19.0% 17.7% 27.5% 0.64× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 5.3% 1.47× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 4.1% 4.6% 7.8% 0.59× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.9% 97.2% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.5% 86.8% 94.2% 0.92× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 75.9% 75.9% 65.1% 1.17× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 75.8% 75.9% 83.3% 0.91× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 51.9% 51.9% 63.1% 0.82× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 48.1% 48.1% 36.9% 1.31× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 24.2% 24.1% 16.7% 1.45× 4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 24.1% 24.1% 34.9% 0.69× 4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.5% 13.2% 5.8% 2.29× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.50× 35.56
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.1% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 72.4% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 63.3% 63.4% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.7% 36.6% — — 2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.6% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.9% 11.0% — — 9.07
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.8% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.8% 77.8% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.2% 22.2% — — 4.51
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.2% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC not to score in both halves 73.0% 73.9% — — 1.35
Los Chankas not to score in both halves 70.7% 73.8% — — 1.36
Los Chankas to score in both halves 29.3% 26.2% — — 3.82
Cusco FC to score in both halves 27.0% 26.1% — — 3.83
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 61.5% 60.3% 53.8% 1.12× 1.66
Only Los Chankas scores 18.0% 16.0% 26.4% 0.61× 6.23
Only Cusco FC scores 16.4% 16.0% 12.3% 1.30× 6.24
Neither team scores 4.1% 4.6% 7.8% 0.60× 21.55
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.3% 22.6% 21.4% 1.06× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.3% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.9% 12.1% 19.9% 0.61× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 10.7% 12.1% 9.2% 1.31× 8.26
6 or more goals 9.3% 7.6% 5.3% 1.45× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.1% 4.5% 7.8% 0.57× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.7% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 27.6% 28.6% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 22.8% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 13.9% 10.9% — — 9.15
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.8% 51.3% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.9% 29.2% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 16.2% 16.7% — — 5.99
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC not to win both halves 90.7% 94.1% — — 1.06
Los Chankas not to win both halves 89.2% 88.0% — — 1.14
Los Chankas to win both halves 10.8% 12.0% — — 8.34
Cusco FC to win both halves 9.3% 5.9% — — 16.99
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to win either half 55.2% 59.0% — — 1.70
Cusco FC to win either half 52.1% 54.3% — — 1.84
Cusco FC to win neither half 47.9% 45.7% — — 2.19
Los Chankas to win neither half 44.8% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC not to win to nil 83.6% 83.1% 87.7% 0.95× 1.20
Los Chankas not to win to nil 82.0% 83.1% 73.6% 1.13× 1.20
Los Chankas to win to nil 18.0% 16.9% 26.4% 0.64× 5.91
Cusco FC to win to nil 16.4% 16.9% 12.3% 1.37× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.0% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
Los Chankas by 1 20.4% 24.1% 25.4% 0.95× 4.15
Cusco FC by 1 19.5% 17.0% 17.9% 0.95× 5.87
Los Chankas by 2 11.8% 11.8% 13.4% 0.88× 8.51
Cusco FC by 2 10.7% 11.8% 5.6% 2.09× 8.51
Los Chankas by 3+ 7.9% 7.2% 11.4% 0.63× 13.91
Cusco FC by 3+ 6.7% 7.2% 2.2% 3.31× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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