Luton v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 5 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG
Shots
6 – 23
On target
4 – 9
Shots in box
3 – 16
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+2.47 – +1.41
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Luton 0.53 xGArsenal 2.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Luton attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 24' |
 Luton |
Gabriel Osho | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Alfie Doughty |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 31' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 31' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 38' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 44' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ben White |
| 47' |
Luton |
Andros Townsend | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 48' |
Luton |
Elijah Adebayo | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Goal | Alfie Doughty |
| 48' |
Luton |
Teden Mengi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 51' |
Arsenal |
Jakub Kiwior | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 56' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andros Townsend |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gabriel Jesus |
| 70' |
Luton |
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amari'i Bell |
| 74' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 75' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ben White |
| 80' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 85' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 86' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Oleksandr Zinchenko |
| 86' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 2.05 |
| Kai Havertz MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.68 | 0.25 | 1.51 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.51 | 1.82 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.85 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.81 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.81 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Jakub Kiwior DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
Luton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Osho DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ross Barkley MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Teden Mengi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Issa Kabore DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Thomas Kaminski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfie Doughty DML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.06 |
| Amari'i Bell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Andros Townsend AMC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Elijah Adebayo FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jacob Brown AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Carlton Morris Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tahith Chong Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chiedozie Ogbene Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Clark Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan John Giles Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |