Luton v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 8
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.69 – +0.38
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Luton win
32.7%
Draw
21.2%
Bournemouth win
46.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Luton are finishing above their chances — 2.3 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLLLDLL last 10
scored 11
from 8.7 xG
conceded 26
from 22.2 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.70–2.03 | 1-2 8% | 72% | 71% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Luton 1.31 xGBournemouth 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Luton attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andros Townsend |
| 10' |
 Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Solanke |
| 15' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Dominic Solanke |
| 17' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 18' |
Luton |
Tahith Chong | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andros Townsend |
| 38' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adam Smith |
| 39' |
Luton |
Tahith Chong | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Clark |
| 46' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Issa Kabore |
| 50' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Luton |
Jordan Clark | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Justin Kluivert |
| 53' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andros Townsend |
| 54' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Kabore |
| 62' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jordan Clark |
| 62' |
Luton |
Jordan Clark | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Luton |
Alfie Doughty | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tahith Chong |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 72' |
Luton |
Jordan Clark | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luke Berry |
| 73' |
Luton |
Fred Onyedinma | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jordan Clark |
| 74' |
Luton |
Fred Onyedinma | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Carlton Morris |
| 81' |
Luton |
Fred Onyedinma | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cauley Woodrow |
| 83' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Teden Mengi |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Billing |
| 89' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cauley Woodrow |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neto GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 71 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 62 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Marcos Senesi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Luton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Morris FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.02 | 0.89 |
| Jordan Clark MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.38 |
| Ross Barkley MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Alfie Doughty DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Teden Mengi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Reece Burke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Thomas Kaminski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Issa Kabore DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Tahith Chong AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Daiki Hashioka DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andros Townsend AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Fred Onyedinma Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Luke Berry Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Cauley Woodrow Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.65 |