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Luton v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 3 October 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Luton
1–2
1.53 – 0.92 xG
Burnley
Shots
18 – 14
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +1.08
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Lyle Foster 46' — goalElijah Adebayo 83' — goalJacob Bruun Larsen 84' — goal
Luton 1.53 xGBurnley 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lyle Foster 15' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zeki Amdouni 20' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Josh Cullen 21' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Josh Brownhill 27' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Zeki Amdouni 28' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 32' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jacob Brown 33' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu 35' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Luca Koleosho 37' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Josh Brownhill 44' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Luca Koleosho 46' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Luca Koleosho 46' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Lyle Foster 46' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Josh Brownhill 47' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 48' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jacob Brown 49' — Missed Shot (0.64 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 50' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Alfie Doughty 53' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jacob Brown 63' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Reece Burke 63' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Tom Lockyer 63' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Carlton Morris 69' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Carlton Morris 72' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Elijah Adebayo 77' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Tahith Chong 78' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jay Rodriguez 80' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Elijah Adebayo 83' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jacob Bruun Larsen 84' — Goal (0.01 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 87' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Jay Rodriguez 90' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tom Lockyer 97' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)
Luton attacking right Burnley attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
14' Luton Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Carlton Morris
15' Burnley Lyle Foster 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
20' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.13 From Corner — Saved Shot Josh Brownhill
21' Burnley Josh Cullen 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
27' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zeki Amdouni
28' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Luca Koleosho
32' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.11 Open Play — Missed Shot Issa Kabore
33' Luton Jacob Brown 0.02 Open Play — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
35' Luton Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Chiedozie Ogbene
37' Burnley Luca Koleosho 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Josh Brownhill
44' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zeki Amdouni
46' Burnley Luca Koleosho 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Josh Brownhill
46' Burnley Luca Koleosho 0.05 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot —
46' Burnley Lyle Foster 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Goal Sander Berge
47' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Connor Roberts
48' Luton Carlton Morris 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
49' Luton Jacob Brown 0.64 Open Play — Missed Shot —
50' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jacob Brown
53' Luton Alfie Doughty 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Brown
63' Luton Jacob Brown 0.07 From Corner — Blocked Shot Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
63' Luton Reece Burke 0.04 From Corner — Saved Shot —
63' Luton Tom Lockyer 0.02 From Corner — Blocked Shot Alfie Doughty
69' Luton Carlton Morris 0.07 From Corner — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
72' Luton Carlton Morris 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
77' Luton Elijah Adebayo 0.10 From Corner — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
78' Luton Tahith Chong 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Carlton Morris
80' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
83' Luton Elijah Adebayo 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Reece Burke
84' Burnley Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Goal Connor Roberts
87' Luton Carlton Morris 0.03 From Corner — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
90' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
97' Luton Tom Lockyer 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Josh Brownhill MC 90 0 0 3 3 0.12 0.19 0.23
Josh Cullen MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.08
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Ameen Al Dakhil DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Charlie Taylor DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Connor Roberts DR 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.19
Louis Beyer DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Sander Berge MC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.33 0.13
Lyle Foster FW 84 1 0 2 0 0.35 0.00 0.40
Zeki Amdouni FWL 78 0 0 2 2 0.20 0.04 0.11
Luca Koleosho FWR 78 0 0 3 1 0.11 0.07 0.10
Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub 12 1 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Aaron Ramsey Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Jay Rodriguez Sub 6 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.09
Hannes Delcroix Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Luton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Chiedozie Ogbene AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.21 0.03 0.38
Carlton Morris FW 90 0 0 4 2 0.19 0.06 0.29
Tom Lockyer DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.02
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.07 0.14
Alfie Doughty DML 90 0 0 1 7 0.02 0.31 0.21
Thomas Kaminski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Teden Mengi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Marvelous Nakamba MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Jacob Brown AMC 73 0 0 3 2 0.73 0.12 0.78
Reece Burke Sub 70 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.10 0.13
Issa Kabore DMR 66 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.11
Elijah Adebayo Sub 24 1 0 2 0 0.20 0.00 0.10
Amari'i Bell DC 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tahith Chong Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.14
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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