Luton v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 3 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.98
Goals − xG
+0.05 – -0.23
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Luton win
31.4%
Draw
22.2%
Everton win
46.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Luton are finishing above their chances — 2.3 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLLLDLL last 10
scored 11
from 8.7 xG
conceded 26
from 22.2 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.89 | 1-1 9% | 66% | 66% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Luton 0.95 xGEverton 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Luton attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Luton |
Reece Burke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Luton |
Tahith Chong | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alfie Doughty |
| 18' |
 Everton |
James Garner | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 23' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 30' |
Luton |
Elijah Adebayo | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 39' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 43' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrad Branthwaite |
| 45' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 45' |
Luton |
Alfie Doughty | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Reece Burke |
| 47' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 48' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fred Onyedinma |
| 50' |
Luton |
Gabriel Osho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tahith Chong |
| 53' |
Luton |
Teden Mengi | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alfie Doughty |
| 65' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alfie Doughty |
| 67' |
Luton |
Carlton Morris | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alfie Doughty |
| 68' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Everton |
Amadou Onana | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 75' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Reece Burke |
| 76' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 77' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Luton |
Cauley Woodrow | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 90' |
Luton |
Cauley Woodrow | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfie Doughty |
| 94' |
Luton |
Teden Mengi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Luton |
Luke Berry | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cauley Woodrow |
| 96' |
Luton |
Luke Berry | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Teden Mengi |
| 96' |
Luton |
Teden Mengi | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alfie Doughty |
| 97' |
Luton |
Andros Townsend | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Luton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teden Mengi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| Ross Barkley MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Carlton Morris AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alfie Doughty DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.04 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Tahith Chong AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Reece Burke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Gabriel Osho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Thomas Kaminski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elijah Adebayo FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Fred Onyedinma DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Cauley Woodrow Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Andros Townsend Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luke Berry Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Jack Harrison MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| Ben Godfrey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Dwight McNeil ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Idrissa Gueye MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ashley Young DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Garner MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| André Gomes Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Onana Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seamus Coleman Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Chermiti Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |