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Luton v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 5 November 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Luton
1–1
1.34 – 3.04 xG
Liverpool
Shots
8 – 24
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 15
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-0.34 – -2.35
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tahith Chong 79' — goalLuis Díaz 94' — goal
Luton 1.34 xGLiverpool 3.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Darwin Núñez 4' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ross Barkley 4' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joseph Gomez 5' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, From Corner)Carlton Morris 6' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 9' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 12' — Shot On Post (0.35 xG, Open Play)Issa Kabore 14' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 15' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 20' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Darwin Núñez 23' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 32' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 33' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 35' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ross Barkley 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 44' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Chiedozie Ogbene 52' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dominik Szoboszlai 56' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 62' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 64' — Saved Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Cody Gakpo 67' — Missed Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 67' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 69' — Missed Shot (0.62 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 69' — Missed Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 71' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Harvey Elliott 72' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Cody Gakpo 77' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ryan Gravenberch 78' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Virgil van Dijk 79' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Tahith Chong 79' — Goal (0.56 xG, Open Play)Ibrahima Konaté 85' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Luis Díaz 94' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Issa Kabore 99' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Luton attacking right Liverpool attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Joseph Gomez
4' Luton Ross Barkley 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alfie Doughty
5' Liverpool Joseph Gomez 0.15 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
6' Luton Carlton Morris 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tom Lockyer
9' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Diogo Jota
12' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Trent Alexander-Arnold
14' Luton Issa Kabore 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
15' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ryan Gravenberch
20' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.07 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot —
23' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.07 Open Play — Missed Shot Mohamed Salah
32' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ryan Gravenberch
33' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.01 Open Play — Blocked Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
35' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
40' Luton Ross Barkley 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
44' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.01 Set Piece — Missed Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
52' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Carlton Morris
56' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Darwin Núñez
62' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joseph Gomez
64' Luton Carlton Morris 0.55 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
67' Liverpool Cody Gakpo 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Harvey Elliott
67' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
69' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.62 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mohamed Salah
69' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.50 Open Play — Missed Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
71' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mohamed Salah
72' Liverpool Harvey Elliott 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
77' Liverpool Cody Gakpo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
78' Liverpool Ryan Gravenberch 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alexis Mac Allister
79' Liverpool Virgil van Dijk 0.07 From Corner — Missed Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
79' Luton Tahith Chong 0.56 Open Play Left Foot Goal Issa Kabore
85' Liverpool Ibrahima Konaté 0.01 From Corner — Missed Shot Konstantinos Tsimikas
94' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.08 Open Play — Goal Harvey Elliott
99' Luton Issa Kabore 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —

Players

Luton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Issa Kabore DMR 90 0 1 2 1 0.13 0.56 0.69
Ross Barkley MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.03 0.00 0.60
Gabriel Osho DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tom Lockyer DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Marvelous Nakamba MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alfie Doughty DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Teden Mengi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thomas Kaminski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chiedozie Ogbene AMC 82 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Carlton Morris FW 77 0 0 2 1 0.60 0.02 0.62
Andros Townsend AMC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tahith Chong Sub 27 1 0 1 0 0.56 0.00 0.56
Elijah Adebayo Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jacob Brown Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Liverpool

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Darwin Núñez FW 90 0 0 9 1 1.44 0.01 1.95
Mohamed Salah FWR 90 0 0 2 3 0.56 0.97 1.51
Virgil van Dijk DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 1.31
Trent Alexander-Arnold DR 90 0 0 2 6 0.02 0.99 1.29
Ibrahima Konaté DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 1.38
Alexis Mac Allister MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.68
Alisson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.78
Ryan Gravenberch MC 85 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.38 0.92
Joseph Gomez DL 69 0 0 1 2 0.15 0.03 0.78
Diogo Jota FWL 68 0 0 2 1 0.36 0.02 0.82
Dominik Szoboszlai MC 68 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.37
Cody Gakpo Sub 22 0 0 2 0 0.59 0.00 1.11
Harvey Elliott Sub 22 0 1 1 2 0.02 0.63 1.43
Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub 21 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.56
Luis Díaz Sub 5 1 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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