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Luton v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Luton
1–2
1.57 – 3.59 xG
Manchester United
Shots
22 – 21
On target
4 – 8
Shots in box
12 – 13
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.63
Goals − xG
-0.61 – -1.61
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.04.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Rasmus Højlund 0' — goalRasmus Højlund 6' — goalCarlton Morris 13' — goal
Luton 1.61 xGManchester United 3.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Rasmus Højlund 0' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Marcus Rashford 4' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 6' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Rasmus Højlund 6' — Goal (0.48 xG, From Corner)Marcus Rashford 9' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 11' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 12' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Casemiro 12' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Direct Freekick)Carlton Morris 13' — Goal (0.59 xG, Open Play)Tahith Chong 13' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Osho 20' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Carlton Morris 23' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Cauley Woodrow 29' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Osho 30' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Carlton Morris 36' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 38' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alfie Doughty 43' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Alfie Doughty 46' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 47' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Cauley Woodrow 48' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 48' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Tahith Chong 54' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marcus Rashford 56' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 57' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ross Barkley 58' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Diogo Dalot 58' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 59' — Blocked Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 61' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Alejandro Garnacho 63' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Tahith Chong 64' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 65' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Alejandro Garnacho 66' — Blocked Shot (0.57 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 70' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 70' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Carlton Morris 76' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Gabriel Osho 76' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Rasmus Højlund 77' — Saved Shot (0.60 xG, Open Play)Albert Sambi Lokonga 80' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Andros Townsend 83' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 84' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 87' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 91' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Ross Barkley 93' — Shot On Post (0.03 xG, From Corner)
Luton attacking right Manchester United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Manchester United Rasmus Højlund 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
4' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alejandro Garnacho
6' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
6' Manchester United Rasmus Højlund 0.48 From Corner — Goal Alejandro Garnacho
9' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Harry Maguire
11' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
12' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Kobbie Mainoo
12' Manchester United Casemiro 0.02 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot —
13' Luton Carlton Morris 0.59 Open Play — Goal —
13' Luton Tahith Chong 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alfie Doughty
20' Luton Gabriel Osho 0.02 Set Piece — Missed Shot Ross Barkley
23' Luton Carlton Morris 0.06 Open Play — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
29' Luton Cauley Woodrow 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ross Barkley
30' Luton Gabriel Osho 0.09 From Corner — Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
36' Luton Carlton Morris 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
38' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
43' Luton Alfie Doughty 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Luton Alfie Doughty 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Carlton Morris
47' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Rasmus Højlund
48' Luton Cauley Woodrow 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Ross Barkley
48' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Diogo Dalot
54' Luton Tahith Chong 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Teden Mengi
56' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rasmus Højlund
57' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Rashford
58' Luton Ross Barkley 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Teden Mengi
58' Manchester United Diogo Dalot 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alejandro Garnacho
59' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alejandro Garnacho
61' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Bruno Fernandes
63' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Bruno Fernandes
64' Luton Tahith Chong 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ross Barkley
65' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot —
66' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.57 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
70' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kobbie Mainoo
70' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
76' Luton Carlton Morris 0.10 Set Piece — Missed Shot Chiedozie Ogbene
76' Luton Gabriel Osho 0.13 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Carlton Morris
77' Manchester United Rasmus Højlund 0.60 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alejandro Garnacho
80' Luton Albert Sambi Lokonga 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andros Townsend
83' Luton Andros Townsend 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Teden Mengi
84' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Andros Townsend
87' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
91' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Rashford
93' Luton Ross Barkley 0.03 From Corner — Shot On Post Chiedozie Ogbene

Players

Luton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Carlton Morris AMC 90 1 0 4 2 0.77 0.20 0.74
Gabriel Osho DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.23 0.00 0.07
Chiedozie Ogbene DMR 90 0 0 4 2 0.12 0.14 0.12
Ross Barkley MC 90 0 0 2 4 0.05 0.20 0.31
Albert Sambi Lokonga MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.07 0.20
Thomas Kaminski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Amari'i Bell DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Teden Mengi DC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.07 0.20
Alfie Doughty DML 86 0 0 2 3 0.14 0.18 0.17
Tahith Chong AMC 72 0 0 3 0 0.13 0.00 0.26
Cauley Woodrow FW 72 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.19
Andros Townsend Sub 18 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.05 0.07
Jordan Clark Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Luke Berry Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Manchester United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rasmus Højlund FW 90 2 0 3 2 1.43 0.12 1.90
Alejandro Garnacho AMR 90 0 1 8 5 1.05 1.78 2.25
Bruno Fernandes AMC 90 0 0 5 2 0.82 0.12 1.67
Marcus Rashford AML 90 0 0 3 2 0.22 0.21 1.74
Diogo Dalot DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.10 0.34
André Onana GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kobbie Mainoo DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.33
Raphael Varane DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Casemiro DMC 50 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.13
Harry Maguire DC 50 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Luke Shaw DL 46 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Victor Lindelöf Sub 44 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Jonny Evans Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.81
Scott McTominay Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Sofyan Amrabat Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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