Luton v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG
Shots
10 – 16
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+0.15 – -0.95
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Luton 0.85 xGNottingham Forest 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Luton attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Divock Origi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 7' |
 Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlton Morris |
| 9' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Luton |
Ross Barkley | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Divock Origi | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Willy Boly | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' | Nottingham Forest | Divock Origi | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 39' |
Luton |
Tahith Chong | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Divock Origi |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 49' |
Luton |
Jordan Clark | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chiedozie Ogbene |
| 50' |
Luton |
Jordan Clark | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Wood |
| 56' |
Luton |
Tahith Chong | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.01 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 69' |
Luton |
Andros Townsend | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 84' |
Luton |
Chiedozie Ogbene | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Luton |
Luke Berry | 0.46 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Reece Burke |
| 95' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 96' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Elanga AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.72 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willy Boly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1.16 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Neco Williams DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Harry Toffolo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| Divock Origi AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.09 | 1.10 |
| Chris Wood FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.88 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Felipe Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
Luton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Barkley MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tahith Chong AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chiedozie Ogbene DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Issa Kabore DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Teden Mengi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reece Burke DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| Carlton Morris FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Thomas Kaminski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jordan Clark AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Alfie Doughty DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cauley Woodrow Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andros Townsend Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luke Berry Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |