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Luton v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 1 September 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

1–2
2.02 – 1.23 xG
Shots
16 – 9
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.01 – 0.41
Goals − xG
-1.20 – +0.77
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.92.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jarrod Bowen 36' — goalKurt Zouma 84' — goalMads Andersen 91' — goal
Luton 2.20 xGWest Ham United 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ross Barkley 1' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 12' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tahith Chong 13' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ross Barkley 14' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mads Andersen 23' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jarrod Bowen 25' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 28' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Edson Álvarez 35' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 35' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jarrod Bowen 36' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Elijah Adebayo 38' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 40' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Reece Burke 43' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, From Corner)Tahith Chong 43' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, From Corner)Alfie Doughty 52' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 54' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Elijah Adebayo 56' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Elijah Adebayo 56' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Reece Burke 60' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Reece Burke 60' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Said Benrahma 62' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Carlton Morris 82' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Kurt Zouma 84' — Goal (0.37 xG, From Corner)Mads Andersen 91' — Goal (0.57 xG, Open Play)Chiedozie Ogbene 95' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Luton attacking right West Ham United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Luton Ross Barkley 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
12' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
13' Luton Tahith Chong 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marvelous Nakamba
14' Luton Ross Barkley 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
23' Luton Mads Andersen 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Ross Barkley
25' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Naif Aguerd
28' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
35' West Ham United Edson Álvarez 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
35' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Edson Álvarez
36' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.52 Open Play Goal Lucas Paquetá
38' Luton Elijah Adebayo 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
40' Luton Carlton Morris 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Ryan John Giles
43' Luton Reece Burke 0.38 From Corner Missed Shot Ross Barkley
43' Luton Tahith Chong 0.47 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Reece Burke
52' Luton Alfie Doughty 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Elijah Adebayo
54' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
56' Luton Elijah Adebayo 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marvelous Nakamba
56' Luton Elijah Adebayo 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
60' Luton Reece Burke 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Ross Barkley
60' Luton Reece Burke 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Ross Barkley
62' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Vladimir Coufal
82' Luton Carlton Morris 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
84' West Ham United Kurt Zouma 0.37 From Corner Goal James Ward-Prowse
91' Luton Mads Andersen 0.57 Open Play Goal Carlton Morris
95' Luton Chiedozie Ogbene 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Cauley Woodrow

Players

West Ham United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jarrod Bowen AMR 90 1 0 2 0 0.55 0.00 0.55
Kurt Zouma DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.37 0.00 0.03
Edson Álvarez DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.05 0.66
Vladimir Coufal DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.52
Emerson DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
James Ward-Prowse DMC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.37 0.03
Alphonse Areola GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Lucas Paquetá AMC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.52 0.52
Naif Aguerd DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Michail Antonio FW 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Said Benrahma AML 73 0 0 5 0 0.24 0.00 0.76
Pablo Fornals Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Danny Ings Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mohammed Kudus Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Luton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mads Andersen DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.62 0.00 0.57
Reece Burke DC 90 0 0 3 1 0.49 0.47 0.57
Carlton Morris FW 90 0 1 2 1 0.12 0.57 0.95
Thomas Kaminski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Amari'i Bell DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Marvelous Nakamba MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.16
Tahith Chong MC 86 0 0 2 0 0.49 0.00 0.02
Alfie Doughty DR 80 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.11 0.18
Elijah Adebayo FW 73 0 0 3 1 0.25 0.02 0.27
Ross Barkley MC 73 0 0 2 4 0.16 0.54 0.18
Ryan John Giles DL 73 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.14
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Issa Kabore Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.62
Jacob Brown Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chiedozie Ogbene Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Cauley Woodrow Sub 4 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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