Lyon v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 19 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.40
Goals − xG
-1.37 – -0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
64.3%
Draw
21.1%
Angers win
14.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.12–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.35–0.73 | 2-0 13% | 59% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 2.37 xGAngers 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 5' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 14' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 25' |
 Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 53' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 64' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.54 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 69' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 75' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 79' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 82' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 82' |
Lyon |
Mathys de Carvalho | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 82' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierrick Capelle |
| 87' |
Angers |
Haris Belkebla | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Prosper Peter |
| 93' |
Angers |
Lanroy Machine | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 95' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 95' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.18 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Prosper Peter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lilian Raolisoa FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Justin-Noel Kalumba FWL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Mouton MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Himad Abdelli Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Sidiki Chérif Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.04 | 0.71 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Malick Fofana AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.96 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Adam Karabec AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| Corentin Tolisso DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 1.01 |
| Mathys de Carvalho Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Molébé Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rachid Ghezzal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Afonso Moreira Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |