Lyon v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.68
Goals − xG
+0.84 – +1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
57.9%
Draw
25.5%
Auxerre win
16.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–0.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.01 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 2.16 xGAuxerre 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 3' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 13' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 18' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abner |
| 27' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 34' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.68 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Roman Yaremchuk |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Roman Yaremchuk |
| 49' |
Lyon |
Khalis Merah | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 59' |
Auxerre |
Elisha Owusu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 70' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Corentin Tolisso |
| 72' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 73' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 87' |
Auxerre |
Bryan Okoh | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sinaly Diomande |
| 89' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Kévin Danois DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Elisha Owusu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Théo De Percin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Danny Namaso AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Romain Faivre AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fredrik Oppegård AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Sy Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Clément Akpa Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afonso Moreira AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1.21 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.70 | 1.13 |
| Abner DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.59 | 1.04 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Roman Yaremchuk FW | 81 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.09 | 0.09 | 1.26 |
| Endrick AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Orel Mangala DMC | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Corentin Tolisso Sub | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.99 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ruben Kluivert Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |