Lyon v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 5
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.92
Goals − xG
-0.63 – -0.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
60.4%
Draw
20.0%
Brest win
19.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.80–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.08 | 1-1 10% | 58% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 2.63 xGBrest 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lyon |
Endrick | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 15' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Endrick |
| 24' |
 Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 35' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 38' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 40' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Afonso Moreira |
| 43' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 43' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 45' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Endrick |
| 45' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Endrick |
| 52' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.49 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Endrick |
| 57' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 63' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 65' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Abner |
| 71' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.41 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Brendan Chardonnet |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Orel Mangala | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 94' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Soumaila Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Kamory Doumbia Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Daouda Guindo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Luc Zogbe Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Sulc FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.42 |
| Endrick FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.45 | 1.06 | 1.57 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Abner MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.71 |
| Afonso Moreira FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| Tyler Morton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Ruben Kluivert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Tanner Tessmann MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 1.02 |
| Orel Mangala Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Khalis Merah Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Rémi Himbert Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hans Hateboer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |