Lyon v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.42 – -0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
55.8%
Draw
26.0%
Le Havre win
18.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.71–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–0.92 | 2-0 11% | 58% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 2.42 xGLe Havre 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Le Havre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amir Richardson |
| 12' |
 Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ernest Nuamah |
| 12' |
Lyon |
Loïs Openda | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 25' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ayumu Seko |
| 28' |
Le Havre |
Djibril Ouziad | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Le Havre |
Ayumu Seko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Ebonog |
| 38' |
Le Havre |
Kaito Mizuta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Ebonog |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 45' |
Le Havre |
Amir Richardson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ayumu Seko |
| 49' |
Le Havre |
Kaito Mizuta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Ernest Nuamah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mads Bidstrup |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Loïs Openda | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 57' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Kaito Mizuta |
| 58' |
Lyon |
Ernest Nuamah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mads Bidstrup |
| 59' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ernest Nuamah |
| 59' |
Lyon |
Loïs Openda | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 73' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Goal | Fodé Doucouré |
| 81' |
Le Havre |
Enzo Koffi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ayumu Seko |
| 81' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Lyon |
Loïs Openda | 0.53 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Zachary Athekame |
| 91' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Lyon |
Zachary Athekame | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moussa Niakhate |
| 96' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Abner |
| 97' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 98' |
Lyon |
Zachary Athekame | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Malick Fofana |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.32 | 0.86 |
| Amir Richardson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| Ahmed Touba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lionel Mpasi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Junior Mwanga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Timothee Pembele DML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kaito Mizuta AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Djibril Ouziad DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Josh Maja Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Fodé Doucouré Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| Enzo Koffi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sota Nakamura Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincent Sasso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loïs Openda FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.26 | 0.12 | 0.91 |
| Corentin Tolisso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.02 | 0.76 |
| Zachary Athekame DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Felix Bacher DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Ernest Nuamah AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Mads Bidstrup DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Kail Boudache AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Malick Fofana Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Noah Nartey Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Abner Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |