Lyon v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.68
Goals − xG
-0.18 – +1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
50.8%
Draw
25.0%
Lens win
24.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.64–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 1.18 xGLens 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 14' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 19' |
 Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 20' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 20' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.59 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
| 25' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 30' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 34' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 35' |
Lens |
Deiver Machado | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 42' |
Lyon |
Nemanja Matic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Thiago Almada | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 56' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 57' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 58' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 61' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 68' |
Lyon |
Clinton Mata | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 75' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 77' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moussa Niakhate |
| 78' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Goal | Clinton Mata |
| 81' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 83' |
Lens |
Martín Satriano | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 84' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
| 90' |
Lyon |
Thiago Almada | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson MR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.79 | 0.27 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nampalys Mendy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Andy Diouf ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Tom Pouilly DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Martín Satriano Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hamzat Ojediran Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anass Zaroury Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Malang Sarr Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Mathis Cherki AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 0.85 |
| Thiago Almada AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Malick Fofana AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.65 |
| Corentin Tolisso DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Nemanja Matic DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| Alejandro Rodríguez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |