Lyon v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 14
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.55
Goals − xG
-1.14 – +1.98
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
38.1%
Draw
26.8%
Lens win
35.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon have scored 18 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 13.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLWDWDWLW last 10
scored 18
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 13.5 xG
Lens are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWWLLDLWW last 10
scored 19
from 21.6 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.67 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 1.14 xGLens 2.02 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lyon |
Endrick | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Lyon |
Ruben Kluivert | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 19' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kyllian Antonio |
| 31' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amadou Haidara |
| 35' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 43' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Florian Thauvin |
| 47' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 49' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 50' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 52' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 53' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Endrick |
| 56' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Pavel Sulc |
| 58' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Endrick |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 75' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 76' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lyon |
Hans Hateboer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 85' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 85' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 87' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lyon |
Ernest Nuamah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Greif |
| 88' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Said AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.13 | 0.76 |
| Andrija Bulatovic MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.99 | 0.66 |
| Florian Sotoca FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Nidal Celik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Masuaku DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Mathieu Gorgelin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 68 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 0.81 |
| Amadou Haidara MC | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Pierre Ganiou Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Kyllian Antonio DC | 38 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Matthieu Udol Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Ruben Aguilar Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Adrien Thomasson Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Afonso Moreira FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Pavel Sulc AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Endrick FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Ruben Kluivert DL | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roman Yaremchuk Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Hans Hateboer Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ernest Nuamah Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Malick Fofana Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |