Lyon v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.25 – +0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
49.1%
Draw
27.4%
Lille win
23.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.81–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 1.75 xGLille 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lille |
Bafode Diakite | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Benjamin André |
| 13' |
Lille |
André Gomes | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 17' |
Lille |
Bafode Diakite | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 19' |
 Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 34' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 37' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 39' |
Lyon |
Thiago Almada | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Lille |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mitchel Bakker |
| 62' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 63' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Chevalier |
| 64' |
Lille |
Mitchel Bakker | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Corentin Tolisso |
| 74' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 75' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 84' |
Lyon |
Jordan Veretout | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 86' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin André |
| 89' |
Lyon |
Thiago Almada | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 91' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Osame Sahraoui |
| 92' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Osame Sahraoui |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bafode Diakite DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| André Gomes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Mitchel Bakker AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Chuba Akpom Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ismaily Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Almada AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Corentin Tolisso AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.96 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Cherki Sub | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Alexandre Lacazette FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nemanja Matic DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Veretout Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Ernest Nuamah AMR | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Akouokou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |