Lyon v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.49
Goals − xG
+0.02 – -1.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
55.1%
Draw
23.4%
Lorient win
21.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon have scored 18 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 13.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLWDWDWLW last 10
scored 18
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 13.5 xG
Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDLWDLWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.4 xG
conceded 10
from 12.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.69–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.10 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 1.98 xGLorient 1.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 9' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 15' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Moussa Niakhate |
| 17' |
 Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 17' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 40' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 46' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Panos Katseris |
| 46' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Orel Mangala | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | Endrick |
| 52' |
Lorient |
Arsène Kouassi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Abdoulaye Faye |
| 53' |
Lyon |
Roman Yaremchuk | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 57' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 78' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 82' |
Lorient |
Nathaniel Adjei | 0.38 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 83' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 86' |
Lorient |
Bamo Meïté | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 89' |
Lorient |
Panos Katseris | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
Players
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afonso Moreira ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 1.25 |
| Abner DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.58 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Roman Yaremchuk FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Steeve Kango DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Rachid Ghezzal MR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noah Nartey MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Corentin Tolisso Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Endrick Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| Orel Mangala Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Kluivert Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 0.39 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.67 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darline Yongwa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |