Lyon v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 6
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.54 – -0.90
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
47.4%
Draw
22.6%
Marseille win
30.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLWLDLWWWL last 10
scored 14
from 22.5 xG
conceded 14
from 14.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.02–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.82 | 1-1 8% | 72% | 72% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 3.54 xGMarseille 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Lyon |
Abner | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malick Fofana |
| 14' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
 Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 30' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 37' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 39' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Moussa Niakhate |
| 44' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 47' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Clinton Mata |
| 48' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Adam Karabec | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 62' |
Lyon |
Adam Karabec | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 62' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 66' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 67' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lyon |
Moussa Niakhate | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 76' |
Lyon |
Clinton Mata | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Tanner Tessmann |
| 86' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.92 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 95' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pol Lirola |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamed Junior Traore AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Amir Murillo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Angel Gomes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Timothy Weah DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Derek Cornelius Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Greenwood AMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Ulisses García Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bilal Nadir AMC | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CJ Egan-Riley DC | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pol Lirola Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Darryl Bakola Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 1.79 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 0.89 |
| Adam Karabec AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1.21 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 1.40 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 1.43 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.42 |
| Remy Descamps GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.61 |
| Abner DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.90 |
| Malick Fofana AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Afonso Moreira Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Ruben Kluivert Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |