Lyon v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 21
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 18
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.99
Goals − xG
-0.12 – -1.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
51.1%
Draw
22.7%
Monaco win
26.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.46 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 1.12 xGMonaco 3.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 15' |
 Lyon |
Endrick | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 16' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 19' |
Lyon |
Orel Mangala | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 25' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 29' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 32' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 33' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 34' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 41' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Endrick |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 56' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 56' |
Lyon |
Orel Mangala | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 60' |
Lyon |
Hans Hateboer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Endrick |
| 60' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 61' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jordan Teze |
| 66' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 71' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 75' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Mawissa Elebi |
| 76' |
Monaco |
Wout Faes | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 78' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Nartey |
| 79' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Mawissa Elebi |
| 79' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 82' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 87' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Lyon |
Moussa Niakhate | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Lyon |
Noah Nartey | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 94' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Monaco |
Mamadou Coulibaly | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 97' |
Monaco |
Christian Mawissa Elebi | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 97' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jordan Teze MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 0.96 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Maghnes Akliouche FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.54 | 0.22 | 1.07 |
| Simon Adingra ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.37 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.30 | 1.43 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.54 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endrick AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.72 |
| Pavel Sulc FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.85 |
| Corentin Tolisso MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.72 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hans Hateboer DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Afonso Moreira DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Noah Nartey Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Malick Fofana Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Steeve Kango Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |