Lyon v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 6
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+0.75 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
57.8%
Draw
21.7%
Nantes win
20.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon have scored 18 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 13.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLWDWDWLW last 10
scored 18
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 13.5 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–0.81 | 2-0 12% | 56% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 2.25 xGNantes 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mayckel Lahdo |
| 8' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef El-Arabi |
| 13' |
Nantes |
Junior Mwanga | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Lyon |
Hans Hateboer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 17' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 24' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Tagliafico |
| 25' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abner |
| 29' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathys de Carvalho |
| 45' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Hans Hateboer | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pavel Sulc |
| 52' |
Lyon |
Mathys de Carvalho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pavel Sulc |
| 72' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 75' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Afonso Moreira |
| 94' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 97' |
Lyon |
Adam Karabec | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abner |
| 97' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 98' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Karabec |
Players
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.09 | 1.57 |
| Pavel Sulc AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.57 |
| Abner DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.63 |
| Tanner Tessmann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.39 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Tyler Morton MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.74 |
| Hans Hateboer DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mathys de Carvalho MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Afonso Moreira Sub | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Orel Mangala Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Khalis Merah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthis Abline FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Mayckel Lahdo FWR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bahmed Deuff Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bahereba Guirassy Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Uros Radakovic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabien Centonze Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |