Lyon v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 9
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.40
Goals − xG
+1.29 – +1.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
35.4%
Draw
21.5%
Paris Saint Germain win
43.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–1.95 | 1-1 9% | 66% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 0.71 xGParis Saint Germain 1.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 17' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 25' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vitinha |
| 29' |
 Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Moussa Niakhate |
| 32' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vitinha |
| 41' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Tanner Tessmann |
| 43' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Hernández |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Illia Zabarnyi |
| 49' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tyler Morton |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rachid Ghezzal |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 75' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lyon |
Nicolás Tagliafico | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 94' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lee Kang-In |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Neves MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lee Kang-In FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.63 | 1.28 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.97 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.93 |
| Fabián MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Senny Mayulu FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.90 |
| Quentin Ndjantou Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marquinhos Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afonso Moreira AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| Ruben Kluivert DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rachid Ghezzal FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Corentin Tolisso Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |