Lyon v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.34 – +0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lyon win
52.8%
Draw
23.4%
Rennes win
23.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.81–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lyon 2.66 xGRennes 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lyon attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 3' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Seko Fofana |
| 7' |
 Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Thiago Almada |
| 24' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 31' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 32' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 32' |
Lyon |
Mathis Cherki | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 38' |
Lyon |
Alexandre Lacazette | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Thiago Almada |
| 41' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 47' |
Lyon |
Thiago Almada | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 65' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Meïté |
| 71' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 76' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 80' |
Rennes |
Andrés Gómez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kazeem Olaigbe |
| 87' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.75 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 88' |
Lyon |
Jordan Veretout | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 91' |
Lyon |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 91' |
Lyon |
Thiago Almada | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 92' |
Rennes |
Ismaël Koné | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Adrien Truffert DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Azor Matusiwa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Seko Fofana MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mousa Al Tamari FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mohamed Meïté Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andrés Gómez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kazeem Olaigbe Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Ismaël Koné Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Almada AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 1.13 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malick Fofana AML | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mathis Cherki AMR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Alexandre Lacazette FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Nemanja Matic DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Corentin Tolisso DMC | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.34 | 1.36 |
| Jordan Veretout Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Abner Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Sael Kumbedi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |