Macarthur FC v Western Sydney Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 October 2026 · AUS-A-League · 2627
AUS-A-League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.5%
- 2-1 9.4%
- 1-0 7.6%
- 2-0 7.0%
- 1-2 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% | Under 2.5 | 39.0% |
| BTTS yes | 61.9% | BTTS no | 38.1% |
| Macarthur FC 1+ | 83.7% | Macarthur FC 2+ | 54.1% |
| Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ | 73.7% | Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ | 38.6% |
Expected goals 1.81 – 1.34. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Macarthur FC carry the stronger rating, 1463 Elo against 1395.
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Macarthur FC have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for Western Sydney Wanderers and 23.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.81 for Macarthur FC and 1.34 for Western Sydney Wanderers.
Why Macarthur FC
Macarthur FC carry the stronger rating, 1463 Elo against 1395. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Western Sydney Wanderers can win
Nothing in the data singles out Western Sydney Wanderers.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Macarthur FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Western Sydney Wanderers, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Macarthur FC: 45% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Western Sydney Wanderers: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Macarthur FC's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Macarthur FC are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 37/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.88–1.38 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.