Machida Zelvia v Fagiano Okayama — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Machida Zelvia

07:00 UTC

Fagiano Okayama

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,076h before kick-off

Machida Zelvia win

57.8%

model 56.8%

Draw

23.1%

model 23.6%

Fagiano Okayama win

19.2%

model 19.6%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.4%
1-1 11.2%
2-0 11.0%
2-1 9.6%
0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.9%	Under 2.5	53.1%
BTTS yes	47.0%	BTTS no	53.0%
Machida Zelvia 1+	81.3%	Machida Zelvia 2+	50.0%
Fagiano Okayama 1+	58.1%	Fagiano Okayama 2+	21.7%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Machida Zelvia (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Fagiano Okayama not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1512.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Machida Zelvia have an estimated 57.8% win probability, against 23.1% for the draw and 19.2% for Fagiano Okayama. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for Machida Zelvia and 0.87 for Fagiano Okayama.

Why Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1512. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Fagiano Okayama can win

Nothing in the data singles out Fagiano Okayama.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Machida Zelvia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fagiano Okayama, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Machida Zelvia: 50% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fagiano Okayama: 48% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 7.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Machida Zelvia are the model's most likely outcome at 57.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	572420	1.68–0.87	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	562519	1.53–0.77	1-0 16%	40%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win	55.6%	54.0%	43.0%	1.26×	1.85
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
Fagiano Okayama to win	19.1%	19.4%	31.1%	0.62×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia & not both score	36.6%	33.3%	25.0%	1.33×	3.00
Machida Zelvia & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	15.5%	18.0%	19.2%	0.93×	5.57
Fagiano Okayama & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.54
Draw & not both score	9.8%	8.3%	7.0%	1.19×	12.00
Fagiano Okayama & both teams score	7.2%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia & under 3.5	42.4%	40.3%	33.1%	1.22×	2.48
Machida Zelvia & over 1.5	40.0%	40.2%	30.3%	1.33×	2.49
Machida Zelvia & over 2.5	28.3%	26.1%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84
Machida Zelvia & under 2.5	27.4%	26.1%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	20.3%	1.06×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	20.3%	1.06×	4.63
Machida Zelvia & under 1.5	15.6%	18.0%	12.8%	1.40×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Fagiano Okayama & under 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Machida Zelvia & over 3.5	13.3%	12.8%	10.0%	1.28×	7.79
Fagiano Okayama & over 1.5	11.1%	12.8%	21.3%	0.60×	7.79
Fagiano Okayama & under 2.5	11.0%	12.8%	13.4%	0.96×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Fagiano Okayama & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.63
Fagiano Okayama & over 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	17.8%	0.44×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Fagiano Okayama & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	7.8%	0.61×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (1UP)	66.5%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Fagiano Okayama (1UP)	33.5%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2UP)	55.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Fagiano Okayama (2UP)	19.1%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win 2nd half	43.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.38
2nd half drawn	37.9%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Fagiano Okayama to win 2nd half	18.6%	18.2%	—	—	5.51

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.1%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Fagiano Okayama under 0.5 in 2nd half	63.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Fagiano Okayama over 0.5 in 2nd half	37.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
Fagiano Okayama over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.9%	8.0%	—	—	12.43

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.3%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.8%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama (+2.5)	88.0%	88.5%	93.8%	0.94×	1.13
Machida Zelvia (+0.5)	80.9%	82.5%	68.9%	1.20×	1.21
Fagiano Okayama (+1.5)	71.0%	73.6%	81.9%	0.90×	1.36
Machida Zelvia (-0.5)	55.6%	57.0%	43.0%	1.33×	1.75
Fagiano Okayama (+0.5)	44.4%	43.0%	57.0%	0.75×	2.33
Machida Zelvia (-1.5)	29.0%	26.4%	18.1%	1.45×	3.79
Fagiano Okayama (-0.5)	19.1%	17.5%	31.1%	0.56×	5.72
Machida Zelvia (-2.5)	12.0%	11.5%	6.3%	1.85×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama to concede	78.3%	78.8%	75.3%	1.05×	1.27
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	21.7%	21.2%	24.7%	0.86×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet in 1st half	51.8%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Fagiano Okayama to concede in 1st half	48.2%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama to concede in 2nd half	58.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet in 2nd half	41.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama under 6.5 corners	89.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fagiano Okayama under 5.5 corners	80.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Fagiano Okayama under 4.5 corners	68.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fagiano Okayama over 2.5 corners	67.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fagiano Okayama under 3.5 corners	51.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Fagiano Okayama over 3.5 corners	48.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Fagiano Okayama under 2.5 corners	32.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fagiano Okayama over 4.5 corners	31.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fagiano Okayama over 5.5 corners	19.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Fagiano Okayama over 6.5 corners	10.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Fagiano Okayama under 2.5 goals	95.7%	97.5%	87.8%	1.11×	1.03
Fagiano Okayama under 1.5 goals	82.0%	81.5%	68.3%	1.19×	1.23
Fagiano Okayama over 0.5 goals	53.7%	53.6%	68.1%	0.79×	1.87
Fagiano Okayama under 0.5 goals	46.3%	46.4%	31.9%	1.46×	2.15
Fagiano Okayama over 1.5 goals	18.0%	18.5%	31.7%	0.58×	5.39
Fagiano Okayama over 2.5 goals	4.3%	2.5%	12.2%	0.21×	39.81
Fagiano Okayama over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.5%	4.1%	0.62×	39.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama under 1.5 in 1st half	96.1%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Fagiano Okayama under 0.5 in 1st half	73.5%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Fagiano Okayama over 0.5 in 1st half	26.5%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Fagiano Okayama over 1.5 in 1st half	3.9%	4.0%	—	—	25.29

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama scores equally in both	53.2%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Fagiano Okayama scores more in 2nd half	29.0%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Fagiano Okayama scores more in 1st half	17.8%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (away no bet)	68.8%	66.4%	62.2%	1.07×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.2%	33.6%	37.8%	0.89×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama even goals	60.7%	59.0%	54.2%	1.09×	1.69
Fagiano Okayama odd goals	39.3%	41.0%	45.8%	0.89×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.3%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	53.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Both halves under 1.5 goals	46.2%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.1%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Machida Zelvia to score 2+ in a row	39.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Machida Zelvia to score 3+ in a row	15.1%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Fagiano Okayama to score 2+ in a row	12.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Fagiano Okayama to score 3+ in a row	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia corners (+3.5)	91.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Machida Zelvia corners (+2.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Machida Zelvia corners (+1.5)	78.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fagiano Okayama corners (+3.5)	77.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fagiano Okayama corners (+2.5)	68.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fagiano Okayama corners (+1.5)	56.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Machida Zelvia corners (-1.5)	43.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Machida Zelvia corners (-2.5)	32.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Machida Zelvia corners (-3.5)	22.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fagiano Okayama corners (-1.5)	21.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fagiano Okayama corners (-2.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Fagiano Okayama corners (-3.5)	8.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	17.6%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	58.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	17.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.6%	13.8%	12.8%	1.08×	7.24
1-1	11.5%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.72
2-0	11.7%	11.5%	7.3%	1.56×	8.72
0-0	9.8%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.50
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.50
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.50
3-0	6.0%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.32
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.2%	0.24×	58.29
1-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.32
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.29
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.32
4-0	2.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.31
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2nd half DNB)	70.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fagiano Okayama (2nd half DNB)	30.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia leading at HT (DNB)	71.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Fagiano Okayama leading at HT (DNB)	28.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw (1X)	80.9%	80.6%	68.9%	1.17×	1.24
Machida Zelvia or Fagiano Okayama (12)	74.7%	72.1%	73.9%	0.98×	1.39
Fagiano Okayama or draw (X2)	44.4%	46.0%	57.0%	0.81×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw at HT	84.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Fagiano Okayama or draw at HT	61.2%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Machida Zelvia or Fagiano Okayama at HT	53.9%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw (1UP)	80.9%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Fagiano Okayama or draw (1UP)	44.4%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw in 2nd half	81.4%	81.8%	—	—	1.22
Machida Zelvia or Fagiano Okayama in 2nd half	62.1%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Fagiano Okayama or draw in 2nd half	56.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.8%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.2%	31.8%	—	—	3.14

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (DNB)	74.5%	71.6%	58.0%	1.23×	1.40
Fagiano Okayama (DNB)	25.5%	28.4%	42.0%	0.68×	3.52

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score first	60.0%	64.3%	—	—	1.55
Fagiano Okayama to score first	30.2%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	9.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.2%	55.0%	49.5%	1.11×	1.82
Both teams to score	41.8%	45.0%	50.5%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	48.1%	44.3%	40.2%	1.10×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	30.2%	34.5%	37.2%	0.93×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	12.4%	13.4%	0.92×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	10.1%	12.3%	9.5%	1.30×	8.10

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.9%	89.0%	86.3%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.1%	11.0%	13.8%	0.80×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.6%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	68.6%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	18.7%	15.1%	—	—	6.62
Both score 1st half only	10.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
Both score in both halves	2.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.47

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.3%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.7%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
A goal in each half	45.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12
0-1 goals	33.4%	30.7%	29.5%	1.04×	3.25
4-6 goals	19.1%	20.3%	20.9%	0.97×	4.94
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama to score exactly 0	46.3%	42.8%	31.9%	1.34×	2.34
Fagiano Okayama to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Fagiano Okayama to score exactly 2	13.7%	12.9%	19.7%	0.65×	7.76
Fagiano Okayama to score 3+	4.3%	4.6%	12.2%	0.38×	21.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 1	33.1%	32.6%	36.3%	0.90×	3.07
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	24.5%	1.08×	3.77
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 0	21.7%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Machida Zelvia to score 3+	19.8%	18.8%	14.8%	1.26×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Machida Zelvia leading at HT	38.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Fagiano Okayama leading at HT	15.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.42

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia -1: 2	44.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Machida Zelvia -1: 1	29.0%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Machida Zelvia -1: X	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama (0:1)	44.4%	42.7%	57.0%	0.75×	2.34
Machida Zelvia (0:1)	29.0%	27.0%	18.1%	1.49×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	26.6%	27.0%	25.0%	1.08×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama (0:2)	71.0%	75.6%	81.9%	0.92×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	17.1%	15.3%	12.0%	1.27×	6.54
Machida Zelvia (0:2)	12.0%	11.0%	6.3%	1.76×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama (0:3)	88.0%	90.6%	93.8%	0.97×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.0%	5.8%	4.2%	1.38×	17.20
Machida Zelvia (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	2.2%	1.09×	42.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama (0:4)	96.0%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.78
Machida Zelvia (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	81.98

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (1:0)	80.9%	81.3%	68.9%	1.18×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	13.5%	12.7%	19.4%	0.66×	7.87
Fagiano Okayama (1:0)	5.5%	6.9%	11.9%	0.58×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2:0)	94.5%	94.0%	88.1%	1.07×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	6.1%	0.38×	43.56
Fagiano Okayama (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	5.9%	0.38×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	27.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to concede	53.7%	53.2%	68.1%	0.78×	1.88
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	46.3%	46.8%	31.9%	1.47×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia clean sheet in 1st half	73.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Machida Zelvia to concede in 1st half	26.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia clean sheet in 2nd half	63.0%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Machida Zelvia to concede in 2nd half	37.0%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia over 2.5 corners	80.8%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Machida Zelvia under 6.5 corners	77.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Machida Zelvia over 3.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Machida Zelvia under 5.5 corners	65.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Machida Zelvia under 4.5 corners	50.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Machida Zelvia over 4.5 corners	49.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Machida Zelvia under 3.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Machida Zelvia over 5.5 corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Machida Zelvia over 6.5 corners	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Machida Zelvia under 2.5 corners	19.2%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Machida Zelvia under 2.5 goals	80.2%	82.2%	85.2%	0.97×	1.22
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 goals	78.3%	77.7%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	60.8%	0.88×	1.88
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 goals	45.2%	46.8%	39.2%	1.19×	2.14
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 goals	21.7%	22.3%	24.7%	0.90×	4.49
Machida Zelvia over 2.5 goals	19.8%	17.8%	14.8%	1.20×	5.62
Machida Zelvia over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 in 1st half	85.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 in 1st half	51.8%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 in 1st half	48.2%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 in 1st half	14.1%	9.9%	—	—	10.13

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia scores more in 2nd half	38.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Machida Zelvia scores equally in both	36.0%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Machida Zelvia scores more in 1st half	25.8%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.0%	56.4%	45.6%	1.24×	1.77
Fagiano Okayama (home no bet)	43.0%	43.6%	54.4%	0.80×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia even goals	52.4%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Machida Zelvia odd goals	47.7%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.1%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
HT 1-0	25.1%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
HT 0-1	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 2-0	8.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 1-1	7.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
Any other HT score	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	33.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Draw at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	20.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Fagiano Okayama at HT / Fagiano Okayama at FT	9.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.57
Draw at HT / Fagiano Okayama at FT	8.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.58
Machida Zelvia at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Fagiano Okayama at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.63
Fagiano Okayama at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.69
Machida Zelvia at HT / Fagiano Okayama at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score last	60.0%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Fagiano Okayama to score last	30.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
No goal scored	9.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Machida Zelvia to lead by 1 at any time	66.5%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.4%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Machida Zelvia to lead by 2 at any time	33.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Fagiano Okayama to lead by 1 at any time	33.5%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Machida Zelvia to lead by 3 at any time	13.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Fagiano Okayama to lead by 2 at any time	8.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.86
Fagiano Okayama to lead by 3 at any time	1.7%	1.6%	—	—	62.98

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia most corners	56.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Fagiano Okayama most corners	32.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.2%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.9%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.2%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	65.7%	68.8%	68.0%	1.01×	1.45
2-5 goals	63.6%	63.3%	65.0%	0.97×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.3%	59.1%	59.2%	1.00×	1.69
1-2 goals	49.9%	48.5%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	39.4%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
3-5 goals	37.4%	39.2%	41.1%	0.95×	2.55
3-4 goals	32.0%	35.2%	35.3%	1.00×	2.84
4-6 goals	19.1%	18.8%	20.9%	0.90×	5.31
4-5 goals	17.0%	18.8%	18.0%	1.05×	5.31
5-6 goals	7.4%	8.9%	8.9%	1.00×	11.26
7+ goals	0.9%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia never behind	56.7%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Fagiano Okayama never behind	23.7%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.2%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.8%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.3%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.0%	95.4%	94.4%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	80.0%	77.3%	76.6%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	66.6%	66.3%	70.5%	0.94×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	59.7%	58.6%	53.4%	1.10×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	40.3%	41.4%	46.6%	0.89×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	33.4%	33.7%	29.5%	1.14×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	20.0%	22.7%	23.4%	0.97×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	7.0%	1.10×	12.93
Over 4.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.0%	4.6%	5.6%	0.81×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.8%	97.2%	94.0%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.5%	92.4%	87.0%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	74.9%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.7%	51.9%	61.2%	0.85×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	45.3%	48.1%	38.8%	1.24×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	25.1%	27.6%	30.5%	0.90×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.5%	7.6%	13.0%	0.59×	13.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.2%	2.8%	6.0%	0.47×	35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	2.7%	1.03×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.6%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.4%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.43
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama not to score in both halves	90.2%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Machida Zelvia not to score in both halves	72.0%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Machida Zelvia to score in both halves	28.0%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Fagiano Okayama to score in both halves	9.8%	10.1%	—	—	9.87

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	41.8%	46.6%	50.5%	0.92×	2.15
Only Machida Zelvia scores	36.6%	39.9%	25.0%	1.60×	2.51
Only Fagiano Okayama scores	11.9%	11.0%	17.8%	0.62×	9.06
Neither team scores	9.8%	7.1%	7.0%	1.01×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.9%	24.1%	1.03×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	23.6%	22.6%	22.7%	1.00×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	20.3%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	11.7%	12.1%	12.2%	1.00×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	9.8%	7.6%	7.0%	1.08×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	5.4%	7.6%	5.9%	1.28×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.0%	4.5%	5.6%	0.79×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	17.7%	15.6%	—	—	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	7.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.53
1 goal in 2nd half	35.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
No goals in 2nd half	26.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Machida Zelvia not to win both halves	83.2%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Machida Zelvia to win both halves	16.8%	16.1%	—	—	6.22
Fagiano Okayama to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.62

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama to win neither half	69.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Machida Zelvia to win either half	65.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Machida Zelvia to win neither half	34.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Fagiano Okayama to win either half	30.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fagiano Okayama not to win to nil	88.1%	88.1%	82.2%	1.07×	1.14
Machida Zelvia not to win to nil	63.4%	66.6%	75.0%	0.89×	1.50
Machida Zelvia to win to nil	36.6%	33.4%	25.0%	1.34×	2.99
Fagiano Okayama to win to nil	11.9%	11.9%	17.8%	0.67×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia by 1	26.6%	27.9%	25.0%	1.12×	3.59
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
Machida Zelvia by 2	17.1%	17.0%	12.0%	1.42×	5.87
Fagiano Okayama by 1	13.5%	11.8%	19.4%	0.61×	8.51
Machida Zelvia by 3+	12.0%	11.8%	6.3%	1.88×	8.51
Fagiano Okayama by 2	4.3%	2.7%	6.1%	0.45×	36.77
Fagiano Okayama by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.87