Machida Zelvia v V-Varen Nagasaki — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Machida Zelvia

05:00 UTC

V-Varen Nagasaki

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 642h before kick-off

Machida Zelvia win

60.6%

model 63.3%

Draw

21.6%

model 20.9%

V-Varen Nagasaki win

17.8%

model 15.7%

612218

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.5%
2-0 11.8%
1-1 9.9%
2-1 9.8%
3-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.0%	Under 2.5	48.0%
BTTS yes	48.0%	BTTS no	52.0%
Machida Zelvia 1+	85.4%	Machida Zelvia 2+	57.3%
V-Varen Nagasaki 1+	56.4%	V-Varen Nagasaki 2+	20.2%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Machida Zelvia (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

V-Varen Nagasaki not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1462.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Machida Zelvia have an estimated 60.6% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 17.8% for V-Varen Nagasaki. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Machida Zelvia and 0.83 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

Why Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1462. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why V-Varen Nagasaki can win

Nothing in the data singles out V-Varen Nagasaki.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Machida Zelvia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for V-Varen Nagasaki, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Machida Zelvia: 50% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. V-Varen Nagasaki: 43% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Machida Zelvia's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Machida Zelvia are the model's most likely outcome at 60.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.5%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	632116	1.93–0.83	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	642115	1.88–0.78	1-0 13%	50%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win	63.6%	58.3%	43.0%	1.36×	1.72
Draw	21.2%	24.5%	26.1%	0.94×	4.09
V-Varen Nagasaki to win	15.2%	19.4%	31.1%	0.62×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia & not both score	39.0%	33.3%	25.0%	1.33×	3.00
Machida Zelvia & both teams score	24.7%	21.8%	18.1%	1.20×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	19.2%	0.69×	7.53
V-Varen Nagasaki & not both score	8.5%	8.3%	17.8%	0.47×	12.01
Draw & not both score	6.7%	8.3%	7.0%	1.18×	12.01
V-Varen Nagasaki & both teams score	6.7%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia & over 1.5	50.3%	48.8%	30.3%	1.61×	2.05
Machida Zelvia & under 3.5	43.0%	40.2%	33.1%	1.22×	2.49
Machida Zelvia & over 2.5	38.0%	34.9%	23.1%	1.51×	2.87
Machida Zelvia & under 2.5	25.7%	26.1%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Machida Zelvia & over 3.5	20.6%	21.6%	10.0%	2.16×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.5%	12.8%	19.2%	0.67×	7.79
Machida Zelvia & under 1.5	13.3%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	23.4%	0.55×	7.79
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	21.3%	0.37×	12.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 2.5	7.4%	7.9%	17.8%	0.44×	12.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.5%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	7.8%	0.61×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (1UP)	74.0%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
V-Varen Nagasaki (1UP)	30.8%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2UP)	63.6%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
V-Varen Nagasaki (2UP)	15.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win 2nd half	50.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
2nd half drawn	33.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
V-Varen Nagasaki to win 2nd half	16.1%	17.8%	—	—	5.62

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.9%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 2nd half	62.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 2nd half	37.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.52
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.1%	7.8%	—	—	12.75

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.9%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.1%	25.7%	—	—	3.88

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (+0.5)	84.8%	82.6%	68.9%	1.20×	1.21
V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.5)	81.7%	82.5%	93.8%	0.88×	1.21
Machida Zelvia (-0.5)	63.6%	62.9%	43.0%	1.47×	1.59
V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.5)	62.0%	62.9%	81.9%	0.77×	1.59
Machida Zelvia (-1.5)	38.0%	37.1%	18.1%	2.05×	2.70
V-Varen Nagasaki (+0.5)	36.4%	37.1%	57.0%	0.65×	2.70
Machida Zelvia (-2.5)	18.3%	17.5%	6.3%	2.79×	5.73
V-Varen Nagasaki (-0.5)	15.2%	17.4%	31.1%	0.56×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede	84.8%	81.6%	75.3%	1.08×	1.23
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet	15.2%	18.4%	24.7%	0.75×	5.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 1st half	55.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 1st half	44.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 2nd half	65.8%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 2nd half	34.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 6.5 corners	95.6%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
V-Varen Nagasaki under 5.5 corners	90.5%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
V-Varen Nagasaki under 4.5 corners	81.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 corners	66.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 corners	53.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 corners	33.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
V-Varen Nagasaki over 4.5 corners	18.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
V-Varen Nagasaki over 5.5 corners	9.5%	10.1%	—	—	9.87
V-Varen Nagasaki over 6.5 corners	4.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 goals	95.5%	97.5%	87.8%	1.11×	1.03
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 goals	81.5%	81.5%	68.3%	1.19×	1.23
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 goals	54.3%	53.5%	68.1%	0.79×	1.87
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 goals	45.7%	46.5%	31.9%	1.46×	2.15
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 goals	18.5%	18.5%	31.7%	0.58×	5.40
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 goals	4.5%	2.5%	12.2%	0.21×	39.83
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.5%	4.1%	0.62×	40.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 1st half	96.0%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 1st half	73.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 1st half	26.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 1st half	4.0%	3.9%	—	—	25.44

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki scores equally in both	52.7%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
V-Varen Nagasaki scores more in 2nd half	29.3%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
V-Varen Nagasaki scores more in 1st half	18.0%	18.1%	—	—	5.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (away no bet)	75.0%	73.5%	62.2%	1.18×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	25.0%	26.5%	37.8%	0.70×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki even goals	60.4%	59.0%	54.2%	1.09×	1.69
V-Varen Nagasaki odd goals	39.6%	41.0%	45.8%	0.89×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.9%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.18

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Machida Zelvia to score 2+ in a row	49.9%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.5%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Machida Zelvia to score 3+ in a row	22.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 2+ in a row	12.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+ in a row	2.1%	2.5%	—	—	39.49

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia corners (+3.5)	96.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Machida Zelvia corners (+2.5)	93.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Machida Zelvia corners (+1.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+3.5)	65.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Machida Zelvia corners (-1.5)	59.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+2.5)	53.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Machida Zelvia corners (-2.5)	46.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+1.5)	40.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Machida Zelvia corners (-3.5)	34.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-1.5)	11.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-2.5)	6.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-3.5)	3.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.47

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	15.7%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	89.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	84.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	77.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 7.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	22.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	15.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	10.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.3%	11.5%	12.8%	0.90×	8.71
2-0	12.3%	11.5%	7.3%	1.56×	8.72
1-1	10.0%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.72
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.51
0-0	6.7%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
3-0	7.7%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
0-1	5.7%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
3-1	6.1%	7.4%	3.0%	2.49×	13.51
0-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.32
1-2	4.0%	1.7%	7.2%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
2-2	3.8%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.32
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.32
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.30
4-1	2.9%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.30
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
Any other score	4.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2nd half DNB)	75.8%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki (2nd half DNB)	24.2%	19.9%	—	—	5.01

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia leading at HT (DNB)	77.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT (DNB)	23.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw (1X)	84.8%	80.6%	68.9%	1.17×	1.24
Machida Zelvia or V-Varen Nagasaki (12)	78.8%	75.5%	73.9%	1.02×	1.32
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (X2)	36.4%	41.7%	57.0%	0.73×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw at HT	86.5%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Machida Zelvia or V-Varen Nagasaki at HT	58.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw at HT	54.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw (1UP)	84.8%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1UP)	36.4%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw in 2nd half	83.9%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
Machida Zelvia or V-Varen Nagasaki in 2nd half	66.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw in 2nd half	49.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (DNB)	80.8%	80.3%	58.0%	1.38×	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki (DNB)	19.2%	19.8%	42.0%	0.47×	5.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score first	65.9%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
V-Varen Nagasaki to score first	27.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
No goal scored	6.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.2%	51.3%	49.5%	1.04×	1.95
Both teams to score	45.8%	48.7%	50.5%	0.97×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.2%	41.6%	40.2%	1.03×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	35.8%	38.4%	37.2%	1.03×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	14.0%	12.4%	9.5%	1.30×	8.08
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.4%	13.4%	0.92×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.6%	85.6%	86.3%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.4%	14.4%	13.8%	1.05×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.4%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.2%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	20.9%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	11.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	47.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12
4-6 goals	25.9%	26.6%	20.9%	1.27×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.7%	26.6%	29.5%	0.90×	3.76
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.34

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 0	45.7%	42.8%	31.9%	1.34×	2.33
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 2	14.0%	12.9%	19.7%	0.66×	7.75
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+	4.5%	4.6%	12.2%	0.38×	21.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score 3+	29.2%	26.6%	14.8%	1.79×	3.77
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 1	28.7%	26.6%	36.3%	0.73×	3.77
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	24.5%	1.08×	3.77
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 0	15.2%	18.7%	24.7%	0.76×	5.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia leading at HT	45.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	41.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT	13.5%	11.8%	—	—	8.46

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia -1: 1	38.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Machida Zelvia -1: 2	36.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Machida Zelvia -1: X	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (0:1)	38.0%	37.3%	18.1%	2.06×	2.68
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:1)	36.4%	37.3%	57.0%	0.65×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	25.7%	27.0%	25.0%	1.08×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:2)	62.0%	67.1%	81.9%	0.82×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.6%	15.3%	12.0%	1.27×	6.54
Machida Zelvia (0:2)	18.3%	15.3%	6.3%	2.44×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:3)	81.7%	85.3%	93.8%	0.91×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.0%	9.9%	4.2%	2.35×	10.10
Machida Zelvia (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	2.2%	2.65×	17.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:4)	92.7%	94.5%	97.8%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.63
Machida Zelvia (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	81.90

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (1:0)	84.8%	81.4%	68.9%	1.18×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.8%	12.7%	19.4%	0.66×	7.88
V-Varen Nagasaki (1:0)	4.4%	3.3%	11.9%	0.28×	30.44

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2:0)	95.6%	96.8%	88.1%	1.10×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.4%	2.3%	6.1%	0.38×	43.68
V-Varen Nagasaki (2:0)	1.0%	2.3%	5.9%	0.38×	43.83

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to concede	54.3%	53.2%	68.1%	0.78×	1.88
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	45.7%	46.8%	31.9%	1.47×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia clean sheet in 1st half	73.1%	66.9%	—	—	1.50
Machida Zelvia to concede in 1st half	26.9%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia clean sheet in 2nd half	62.5%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Machida Zelvia to concede in 2nd half	37.5%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia over 2.5 corners	85.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Machida Zelvia over 3.5 corners	72.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Machida Zelvia under 6.5 corners	70.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Machida Zelvia under 5.5 corners	57.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Machida Zelvia over 4.5 corners	57.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Machida Zelvia under 4.5 corners	42.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Machida Zelvia over 5.5 corners	42.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Machida Zelvia over 6.5 corners	29.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Machida Zelvia under 3.5 corners	27.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Machida Zelvia under 2.5 corners	14.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 3.5 goals	87.8%	87.3%	94.8%	0.92×	1.15
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 goals	84.8%	82.2%	75.3%	1.09×	1.22
Machida Zelvia under 2.5 goals	70.8%	74.2%	85.2%	0.87×	1.35
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 goals	56.1%	58.6%	39.2%	1.49×	1.71
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 goals	43.9%	41.4%	60.8%	0.68×	2.42
Machida Zelvia over 2.5 goals	29.2%	25.8%	14.8%	1.74×	3.88
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 goals	15.2%	17.8%	24.7%	0.72×	5.63
Machida Zelvia over 3.5 goals	12.2%	12.7%	5.2%	2.47×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 in 1st half	80.5%	83.7%	—	—	1.20
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 in 1st half	19.5%	16.3%	—	—	6.13

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia scores more in 2nd half	41.2%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Machida Zelvia scores equally in both	31.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
Machida Zelvia scores more in 1st half	27.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.3%	56.4%	45.6%	1.24×	1.77
V-Varen Nagasaki (home no bet)	41.7%	43.6%	54.4%	0.80×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia even goals	51.2%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Machida Zelvia odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
HT 1-0	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
HT 2-0	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-1	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	8.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	41.99
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	40.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Draw at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	20.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	7.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Draw at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	6.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.45
Machida Zelvia at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Machida Zelvia at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score last	65.8%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
V-Varen Nagasaki to score last	27.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
No goal scored	6.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Machida Zelvia to lead by 1 at any time	74.0%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Machida Zelvia to lead by 2 at any time	43.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 1 at any time	30.8%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Machida Zelvia to lead by 3 at any time	20.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 2 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 3 at any time	1.5%	1.6%	—	—	63.50

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia most corners	71.3%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
V-Varen Nagasaki most corners	18.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.9%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	72.4%	72.4%	68.0%	1.06×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.9%	68.8%	65.0%	1.06×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.4%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	59.2%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.9%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.4%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.5%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.6%	39.2%	35.3%	1.11×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.9%	30.2%	20.9%	1.44×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.4%	24.5%	18.0%	1.36×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.3%	14.8%	8.9%	1.66×	6.76
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia never behind	62.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
V-Varen Nagasaki never behind	19.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.8%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	70.5%	1.03×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.2%	72.5%	76.6%	0.95×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.2%	52.5%	53.4%	0.98×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	49.8%	47.5%	46.6%	1.02×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.8%	27.5%	23.4%	1.17×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	29.5%	0.93×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.2%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	7.0%	1.10×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	5.6%	1.37×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.2%	92.4%	94.0%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.5%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.9%	67.4%	61.2%	1.10×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.3%	61.9%	69.5%	0.89×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.7%	38.1%	30.5%	1.25×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.1%	32.6%	38.8%	0.84×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.5%	18.9%	13.0%	1.46×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.8%	7.6%	6.0%	1.27×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	2.7%	1.03×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.16

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.4%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.6%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to score in both halves	89.9%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Machida Zelvia not to score in both halves	63.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Machida Zelvia to score in both halves	36.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
V-Varen Nagasaki to score in both halves	10.1%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.8%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Only Machida Zelvia scores	39.0%	39.9%	25.0%	1.60×	2.51
Only V-Varen Nagasaki scores	8.5%	7.1%	17.8%	0.40×	14.02
Neither team scores	6.7%	7.1%	7.0%	1.01×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.5%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.0%	17.5%	22.7%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.6%	12.1%	12.2%	1.00×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	7.8%	7.6%	5.9%	1.28×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.7%	7.6%	7.0%	1.08×	13.15
6 or more goals	5.4%	7.6%	5.6%	1.35×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	32.5%	35.7%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	20.5%	21.4%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	10.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.25

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.6%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Machida Zelvia not to win both halves	77.2%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Machida Zelvia to win both halves	22.8%	24.7%	—	—	4.05
V-Varen Nagasaki to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	—	—	36.11

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win either half	72.9%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
V-Varen Nagasaki to win neither half	72.5%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
V-Varen Nagasaki to win either half	27.5%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Machida Zelvia to win neither half	27.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.70

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win to nil	91.5%	92.1%	82.2%	1.12×	1.09
Machida Zelvia not to win to nil	61.0%	66.5%	75.0%	0.89×	1.50
Machida Zelvia to win to nil	39.0%	33.5%	25.0%	1.34×	2.99
V-Varen Nagasaki to win to nil	8.5%	7.9%	17.8%	0.45×	12.61

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia by 1	25.7%	27.9%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Draw	21.2%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
Machida Zelvia by 2	19.6%	17.1%	12.0%	1.42×	5.86
Machida Zelvia by 3+	18.3%	17.0%	6.3%	2.73×	5.87
V-Varen Nagasaki by 1	10.8%	11.7%	19.4%	0.61×	8.51
V-Varen Nagasaki by 2	3.4%	2.7%	6.1%	0.45×	36.83
V-Varen Nagasaki by 3+	1.0%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.90