Mainz 05 v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.62 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-1.01 – -1.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
49.1%
Draw
29.6%
Augsburg win
21.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.12 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 3.01 xGAugsburg 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 9' |
 Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noahkai Banks |
| 18' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elvis Rexhbecaj |
| 19' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Arthur Chaves | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 43' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 48' |
Mainz 05 |
Silas Wamangituka | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Danny da Costa |
| 48' |
Mainz 05 |
Silas Wamangituka | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 65' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 67' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Kade |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 76' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Kade |
| 79' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 84' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 94' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danny da Costa |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mert Kömür AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.98 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Robin Fellhauer DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Michael Gregoritsch FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| Cédric Zesiger Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Fabian Rieder Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Bell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.49 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Danny da Costa DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 84 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.52 | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Silas Wamangituka FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Sheraldo Becker Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Paul Nebel Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Mwene Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kacper Potulski Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |