Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 7
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.99 – 1.08
Goals − xG
-0.94 – +0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
34.8%
Draw
27.9%
Bayer Leverkusen win
37.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.35 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 2.94 xGBayer Leverkusen 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Mainz 05 |
Andreas Hanche-Olsen | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 4' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 6' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Hofmann |
| 13' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 29' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 31' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nadiem Amiri |
| 44' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 47' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix García |
| 53' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Goal | Aleix García |
| 56' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 62' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 65' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Piero Hincapié |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 74' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikolas Veratschnig |
| 82' |
Mainz 05 |
Danny da Costa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 90' |
Mainz 05 |
Nikolas Veratschnig | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Piero Hincapié DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Sub | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Tella DMR | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Hofmann AMC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Andrich Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.19 | 1.19 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.45 | 0.92 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.49 |
| Jae-Sung Lee AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Bell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hong Hyun-Seok Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |