Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 20
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 17
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.89
Goals − xG
+1.37 – -0.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
32.2%
Draw
26.7%
Bayer Leverkusen win
41.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.27–1.44 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 1.63 xGBayer Leverkusen 4.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Ezequiél Fernández | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 7' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 10' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 15' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 17' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 22' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ezequiél Fernández |
| 23' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ernest Poku |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 28' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Robert Andrich | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 33' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 33' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jonas Hofmann |
| 50' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikolas Veratschnig |
| 54' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Arthur | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 58' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 59' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 62' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 67' |
Mainz 05 |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nadiem Amiri |
| 70' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 74' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 83' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 86' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Seghir |
| 86' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 89' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nadiem Amiri |
| 92' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Seghir |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1.28 | 0.51 | 1.60 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 1.23 |
| Arthur DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Ezequiél Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 1.26 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Christian Kofane FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1.15 | 0.24 | 1.50 |
| Ernest Poku AMC | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| Jonas Hofmann AMC | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.37 | 0.89 |
| Ibrahim Maza Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 1.13 |
| Martin Terrier Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.94 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lasse Rieß GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Jae-Sung Lee AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Stefan Bell DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Bøving Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |