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Mainz 05 v Bochum — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–0
1.72 – 0.70 xG
Shots
10 – 11
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.20
Goals − xG
+0.28 – -0.70
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jonathan Burkardt 22' — goalJonathan Burkardt 68' — goal
Mainz 05 1.72 xGBochum 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Moritz Jenz 6' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dominik Kohr 9' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Burkardt 21' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 22' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 27' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jakov Medic 34' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Anthony Caci 38' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Anthony Caci 47' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Anthony Caci 49' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Dani de Wit 54' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jakov Medic 54' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Felix Passlack 60' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 68' — Goal (0.73 xG, Open Play)Myron Boadu 69' — Saved Shot (0.24 xG, Open Play)Dani de Wit 70' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Philipp Mwene 74' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Dani de Wit 76' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Felix Passlack 76' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jakov Medic 77' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Gerrit Holtmann 82' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 92' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)
Mainz 05 attacking right Bochum attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Mainz 05 Moritz Jenz 0.04 Open Play — Saved Shot Anthony Caci
9' Mainz 05 Dominik Kohr 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Anthony Caci
21' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jae-Sung Lee
22' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal Anthony Caci
27' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.05 From Corner — Saved Shot Paul Nebel
34' Bochum Jakov Medic 0.02 Open Play — Missed Shot Matús Bero
38' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
47' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Stefan Bell
49' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Philipp Mwene
54' Bochum Dani de Wit 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ibrahima Sissoko
54' Bochum Jakov Medic 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
60' Bochum Felix Passlack 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Matús Bero
68' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.73 Open Play Left Foot Goal Philipp Mwene
69' Bochum Myron Boadu 0.24 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Felix Passlack
70' Bochum Dani de Wit 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Matús Bero
74' Mainz 05 Philipp Mwene 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anthony Caci
76' Bochum Dani de Wit 0.04 Open Play — Blocked Shot —
76' Bochum Felix Passlack 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
77' Bochum Jakov Medic 0.08 From Corner — Saved Shot Matús Bero
82' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matús Bero
92' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Matús Bero

Players

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Anthony Caci DMR 90 0 1 3 4 0.16 0.47 1.30
Dominik Kohr MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.44
Philipp Mwene DML 90 0 1 1 2 0.06 0.80 0.86
Jae-Sung Lee AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.31 1.17
Moritz Jenz DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.82
Stefan Bell DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 1.16
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.78
Danny da Costa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.09
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Jonathan Burkardt FW 79 2 0 3 0 1.36 0.00 1.43
Hong Hyun-Seok Sub 54 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.90
Paul Nebel AMC 36 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.31
Armindo Sieb Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Nelson Weiper Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Silvan Widmer Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andreas Hanche-Olsen Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bochum

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Felix Passlack DMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.24 0.29
Ibrahima Sissoko MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.07
Philipp Hofmann FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.24
Patrick Drewes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Bernardo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matús Bero MC 90 0 0 0 6 0.00 0.24 0.30
Ivan Ordets DC 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Moritz Broschinski FW 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Maximilian Wittek DML 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jakov Medic Sub 71 0 0 3 0 0.17 0.00 0.33
Anthony Losilla MC 54 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dani de Wit Sub 36 0 0 3 0 0.17 0.00 0.12
Tim Oermann DC 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gerrit Holtmann Sub 17 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.02
Myron Boadu Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.24 0.00 0.24
Erhan Masovic Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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