Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 12
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.41
Goals − xG
+0.49 – -0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
42.8%
Draw
25.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
31.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLWLWL last 10
scored 21
from 24.9 xG
conceded 17
from 18.9 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLWDLWL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 21.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.71–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–1.39 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 1.51 xGEintracht Frankfurt 1.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sheraldo Becker |
| 10' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 18' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 19' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jean Négoce |
| 22' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 23' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 34' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 36' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 42' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 45' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nnamdi Collins | 0.36 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 45' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 50' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 60' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Ritsu Doan |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 67' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 69' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 83' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Kaishu Sano |
| 88' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Silvan Widmer |
| 88' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 95' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Baum |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Farès Chaïbi MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 1.18 |
| Ritsu Doan MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| Nnamdi Collins DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jean Négoce FWL | 61 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 49 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Elias Baum Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Can Uzun Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.18 | 0.75 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.50 | 0.95 |
| Silvan Widmer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sota Kawasaki Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |