Mainz 05 v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Mainz 05

14:30 UTC

Freiburg

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,204h before kick-off

Mainz 05 win

49.2%

model 46.7%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.4%

Freiburg win

27.8%

model 29.9%

492328

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.3%
1-0 7.9%
1-2 7.2%
2-0 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.8%	Under 2.5	40.2%
BTTS yes	61.2%	BTTS no	38.8%
Mainz 05 1+	82.5%	Mainz 05 2+	52.0%
Freiburg 1+	74.2%	Freiburg 2+	39.2%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.35. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 50%

58.5% fair odds 1.71

strong signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mainz 05 have created 2.63 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.40.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home Mainz 05 average 2.26 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mainz 05 have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for Freiburg and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.74 for Mainz 05 and 1.35 for Freiburg.

Why Mainz 05

Mainz 05 have created 2.63 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.40. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Mainz 05 average 2.26 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Freiburg can win

Freiburg carry the stronger rating, 1588 Elo against 1549. Freiburg have created 1.60 xG a match over their last five while Mainz 05 have allowed 1.83. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Freiburg average 1.28 xG a match.

Key players

Mainz 05's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Phillip Tietz (0.63), Sheraldo Becker (0.58), Nadiem Amiri (0.52). Freiburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Igor Matanovic (0.39), Yuito Suzuki (0.29), Johan Manzambi (0.25).

Availability

2 of Freiburg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Freiburg's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mainz 05: 51% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.60 xG a match from set pieces. Freiburg: 52% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Mainz 05 are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWLWDWLWLW last 10 scored 22 from 26.3 xG conceded 18 from 18.3 xG

Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LDLWWWWDWL last 10 scored 22 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 14.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472330	1.74–1.35	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	432433	1.66–1.41	1-1 11%	59%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win	55.8%	54.0%	42.1%	1.28×	1.85
Freiburg to win	23.0%	24.4%	33.4%	0.73×	4.09
Draw	21.2%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & both teams score	31.1%	29.6%	22.3%	1.33×	3.38
Mainz 05 & not both score	24.7%	21.8%	19.9%	1.10×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.57
Freiburg & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	18.4%	0.72×	7.53
Freiburg & not both score	9.1%	8.3%	15.1%	0.55×	12.00
Draw & not both score	3.6%	4.9%	5.8%	0.83×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & over 1.5	48.4%	45.1%	35.8%	1.26×	2.22
Mainz 05 & over 2.5	40.7%	40.2%	29.9%	1.34×	2.49
Mainz 05 & under 3.5	30.0%	30.8%	21.9%	1.41×	3.25
Mainz 05 & over 3.5	25.8%	26.1%	20.4%	1.28×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Freiburg & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	27.5%	0.65×	5.56
Freiburg & over 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Mainz 05 & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	12.3%	1.47×	5.56
Freiburg & under 3.5	14.6%	12.8%	19.5%	0.66×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.0%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.0%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Mainz 05 & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Freiburg & under 2.5	7.4%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Freiburg & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.63
Freiburg & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.0%	0.80×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (1UP)	71.1%	75.4%	60.1%	1.25×	1.33
Freiburg (1UP)	43.5%	38.6%	52.2%	0.74×	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2UP)	55.8%	54.9%	45.4%	1.21×	1.82
Freiburg (2UP)	23.0%	23.4%	36.4%	0.64×	4.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win 2nd half	48.5%	46.0%	37.5%	1.23×	2.18
2nd half drawn	29.4%	25.8%	33.6%	0.77×	3.87
Freiburg to win 2nd half	22.1%	24.2%	29.1%	0.83×	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	84.4%	79.5%	1.06×	1.19
Freiburg over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.6%	56.5%	0.93×	1.90
Freiburg under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.4%	43.5%	1.09×	2.11
Freiburg over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.2%	15.6%	20.5%	0.76×	6.40

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.6%	73.9%	63.1%	1.17×	1.35
Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.2%	63.3%	74.4%	0.85×	1.58
Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.8%	36.7%	25.6%	1.43×	2.73
Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.4%	26.1%	36.9%	0.71×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (+2.5)	83.4%	82.5%	88.0%	0.94×	1.21
Mainz 05 (+0.5)	77.0%	78.5%	66.6%	1.18×	1.27
Freiburg (+1.5)	66.5%	68.7%	75.4%	0.91×	1.46
Mainz 05 (-0.5)	55.8%	57.0%	42.1%	1.36×	1.75
Freiburg (+0.5)	44.2%	43.0%	57.9%	0.74×	2.33
Mainz 05 (-1.5)	33.5%	31.3%	24.6%	1.28×	3.19
Freiburg (-0.5)	23.0%	21.5%	33.4%	0.64×	4.65
Mainz 05 (-2.5)	16.6%	17.5%	12.0%	1.46×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede	87.3%	86.3%	79.2%	1.09×	1.16
Freiburg clean sheet	12.7%	13.7%	20.8%	0.66×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede in 1st half	55.2%	56.9%	51.9%	1.10×	1.76
Freiburg clean sheet in 1st half	44.8%	43.1%	48.1%	0.90×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede in 2nd half	71.6%	70.8%	63.1%	1.12×	1.41
Freiburg clean sheet in 2nd half	28.4%	29.2%	36.9%	0.79×	3.42

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 6.5 corners	88.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Freiburg under 5.5 corners	80.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Freiburg over 2.5 corners	67.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Freiburg under 4.5 corners	67.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Freiburg under 3.5 corners	51.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Freiburg over 3.5 corners	48.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Freiburg under 2.5 corners	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Freiburg over 4.5 corners	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Freiburg over 5.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Freiburg over 6.5 corners	11.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 3.5 goals	96.1%	97.5%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Freiburg under 2.5 goals	86.6%	87.8%	79.2%	1.11×	1.14
Freiburg over 0.5 goals	71.7%	71.9%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Freiburg under 1.5 goals	64.1%	63.2%	57.2%	1.10×	1.58
Freiburg over 1.5 goals	36.0%	36.8%	42.8%	0.86×	2.72
Freiburg under 0.5 goals	28.3%	28.1%	25.6%	1.10×	3.56
Freiburg over 2.5 goals	13.4%	12.2%	20.8%	0.59×	8.20
Freiburg over 3.5 goals	3.9%	2.5%	7.3%	0.34×	39.83

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	93.8%	85.8%	1.09×	1.07
Freiburg under 0.5 in 1st half	59.7%	62.1%	54.4%	1.14×	1.61
Freiburg over 0.5 in 1st half	40.3%	37.9%	45.6%	0.83×	2.64
Freiburg over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	6.2%	14.2%	0.43×	16.19

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg scores equally in both	40.3%	43.3%	39.6%	1.10×	2.31
Freiburg scores more in 2nd half	37.0%	37.3%	36.4%	1.02×	2.68
Freiburg scores more in 1st half	22.7%	22.0%	24.1%	0.91×	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (away no bet)	72.5%	68.4%	63.0%	1.09×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.5%	31.6%	37.0%	0.85×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg even goals	54.0%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Freiburg odd goals	46.0%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.4%	81.3%	75.3%	1.08×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.6%	18.7%	24.7%	0.76×	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.9%	67.5%	72.3%	0.93×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.1%	32.5%	27.7%	1.17×	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.9%	62.3%	66.4%	0.94×	1.60
Mainz 05 to score 2+ in a row	51.4%	50.9%	42.6%	1.20×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.9%	25.2%	29.2%	0.86×	3.96
Freiburg to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	19.7%	34.3%	0.57×	5.08
Mainz 05 to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	19.6%	17.8%	1.10×	5.09
Freiburg to score 3+ in a row	6.5%	5.5%	12.3%	0.45×	18.03

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 corners (+3.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Mainz 05 corners (+2.5)	85.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Freiburg corners (+3.5)	78.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Mainz 05 corners (+1.5)	76.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Freiburg corners (+2.5)	68.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Freiburg corners (+1.5)	57.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Mainz 05 corners (-1.5)	42.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Mainz 05 corners (-2.5)	31.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Freiburg corners (-1.5)	23.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Mainz 05 corners (-3.5)	22.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Freiburg corners (-2.5)	15.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Freiburg corners (-3.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	18.0%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.50
1-0	7.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
2-0	7.7%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.50
3-1	6.6%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
Any other score	6.7%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.51
1-2	5.9%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
3-0	5.3%	7.4%	2.7%	2.75×	13.51
0-0	3.6%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.30
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
0-2	2.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.32
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.31
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.30
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
3-2	4.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.32
4-0	2.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.30
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	3.82×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2nd half DNB)	68.7%	67.5%	56.3%	1.20×	1.48
Freiburg (2nd half DNB)	31.3%	32.5%	43.7%	0.74×	3.08

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 leading at HT (DNB)	64.4%	65.9%	55.6%	1.19×	1.52
Freiburg leading at HT (DNB)	35.6%	34.1%	44.4%	0.77×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or Freiburg (12)	78.8%	75.6%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Mainz 05 or draw (1X)	77.0%	75.6%	66.6%	1.13×	1.32
Freiburg or draw (X2)	44.2%	46.0%	57.9%	0.79×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw at HT	78.3%	79.1%	70.6%	1.12×	1.26
Mainz 05 or Freiburg at HT	61.0%	61.6%	66.0%	0.93×	1.63
Freiburg or draw at HT	60.7%	61.6%	63.3%	0.97×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw (1UP)	77.0%	84.0%	73.8%	1.14×	1.19
Freiburg or draw (1UP)	44.2%	52.7%	64.6%	0.82×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw in 2nd half	77.9%	75.8%	70.9%	1.07×	1.32
Mainz 05 or Freiburg in 2nd half	70.6%	74.2%	66.4%	1.12×	1.35
Freiburg or draw in 2nd half	51.5%	54.0%	62.5%	0.86×	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.0%	58.4%	54.0%	1.08×	1.71
Neither half drawn	43.0%	41.6%	46.0%	0.90×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (DNB)	70.8%	71.5%	55.8%	1.28×	1.40
Freiburg (DNB)	29.2%	28.5%	44.2%	0.65×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score first	59.8%	62.3%	51.1%	1.22×	1.61
Freiburg to score first	36.6%	32.8%	43.2%	0.76×	3.05
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	5.8%	0.73×	23.36

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.5%	56.6%	59.4%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.5%	43.4%	40.6%	1.07×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	53.2%	47.3%	50.2%	0.94×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	26.1%	33.3%	28.0%	1.19×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	12.7%	0.97×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	9.4%	0.88×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.1%	79.7%	79.3%	1.00×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.9%	20.3%	20.7%	0.98×	4.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.4%	65.7%	65.1%	1.01×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.6%	34.3%	34.9%	0.98×	2.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.5%	53.0%	51.3%	1.03×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	29.3%	27.5%	28.3%	0.97×	3.64
Both score 1st half only	13.9%	10.7%	13.9%	0.77×	9.34
Both score in both halves	8.4%	6.8%	6.7%	1.01×	14.64

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.8%	81.2%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.2%	18.8%	20.5%	0.91×	5.32

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.4%	59.8%	67.5%	0.89×	1.67
A half without a goal	36.6%	40.2%	32.5%	1.24×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.0%	42.1%	38.3%	1.10×	2.37
4-6 goals	37.2%	35.1%	39.7%	0.89×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.6%	20.2%	18.0%	1.13×	4.95
7+ goals	5.2%	7.6%	4.3%	1.75×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.9%	31.7%	1.13×	2.78
Freiburg to score exactly 0	28.3%	27.4%	25.6%	1.07×	3.65
Freiburg to score exactly 2	22.5%	22.3%	22.2%	1.01×	4.49
Freiburg to score 3+	13.4%	12.9%	20.8%	0.62×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score 3+	33.9%	32.6%	27.5%	1.18×	3.07
Mainz 05 to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	23.2%	1.14×	3.77
Mainz 05 to score exactly 1	26.3%	26.5%	28.7%	0.92×	3.77
Mainz 05 to score exactly 0	12.7%	14.3%	20.8%	0.69×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 leading at HT	39.3%	38.4%	36.7%	1.05×	2.60
Draw at HT	39.0%	38.4%	34.0%	1.13×	2.60
Freiburg leading at HT	21.7%	20.9%	29.4%	0.71×	4.79

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 -1: 2	44.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Mainz 05 -1: 1	33.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Mainz 05 -1: X	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (0:1)	44.2%	42.7%	57.9%	0.74×	2.34
Mainz 05 (0:1)	33.5%	30.1%	24.6%	1.23×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.3%	24.2%	17.7%	1.37×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (0:2)	66.5%	72.2%	75.4%	0.96×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	16.9%	15.3%	12.7%	1.20×	6.54
Mainz 05 (0:2)	16.6%	15.3%	12.0%	1.28×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (0:3)	83.4%	85.4%	88.0%	0.97×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.7%	5.8%	4.9%	1.18×	17.17
Mainz 05 (0:3)	6.9%	5.8%	7.2%	0.81×	17.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (0:4)	93.1%	94.5%	92.8%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.5%	1.2%	4.9%	0.25×	81.61
Mainz 05 (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.83

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (1:0)	77.0%	78.7%	66.6%	1.18×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.7%	12.7%	16.6%	0.76×	7.87
Freiburg (1:0)	9.4%	6.9%	16.9%	0.41×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2:0)	90.6%	94.0%	83.1%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.3%	6.4%	9.9%	0.64×	15.70
Freiburg (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	43.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.3%	50.2%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	25.1%	26.2%	25.9%	1.01×	3.82
Halves equal	21.6%	24.3%	26.8%	0.91×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede	71.7%	73.2%	74.4%	0.98×	1.37
Mainz 05 clean sheet	28.3%	26.8%	25.6%	1.05×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 clean sheet in 1st half	59.7%	62.1%	54.4%	1.14×	1.61
Mainz 05 to concede in 1st half	40.3%	37.9%	45.6%	0.83×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede in 2nd half	52.6%	52.7%	56.5%	0.93×	1.90
Mainz 05 clean sheet in 2nd half	47.4%	47.3%	43.5%	1.09×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 over 2.5 corners	79.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Mainz 05 under 6.5 corners	77.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Mainz 05 under 5.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Mainz 05 over 3.5 corners	63.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Mainz 05 under 4.5 corners	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Mainz 05 over 4.5 corners	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Mainz 05 under 3.5 corners	36.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mainz 05 over 5.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Mainz 05 over 6.5 corners	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Mainz 05 under 2.5 corners	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 over 0.5 goals	87.3%	87.3%	79.2%	1.10×	1.15
Mainz 05 under 3.5 goals	84.6%	82.2%	88.3%	0.93×	1.22
Mainz 05 under 2.5 goals	66.1%	68.0%	72.5%	0.94×	1.47
Mainz 05 over 1.5 goals	61.0%	63.6%	50.6%	1.26×	1.57
Mainz 05 under 1.5 goals	39.0%	36.4%	49.4%	0.74×	2.75
Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals	33.9%	32.1%	27.5%	1.16×	3.12
Mainz 05 over 3.5 goals	15.4%	17.8%	11.7%	1.52×	5.63
Mainz 05 under 0.5 goals	12.7%	12.7%	20.8%	0.61×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 1st half	80.8%	83.6%	80.5%	1.04×	1.20
Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 1st half	55.2%	56.6%	51.9%	1.09×	1.77
Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 1st half	44.8%	43.4%	48.1%	0.90×	2.31
Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 1st half	19.2%	16.4%	19.5%	0.84×	6.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 scores more in 2nd half	47.0%	47.4%	38.2%	1.24×	2.11
Mainz 05 scores equally in both	29.3%	27.9%	36.7%	0.76×	3.59
Mainz 05 scores more in 1st half	23.7%	21.3%	25.2%	0.84×	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (home no bet)	52.1%	51.4%	57.5%	0.89×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.9%	48.6%	42.5%	1.14×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 even goals	50.8%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Mainz 05 odd goals	49.2%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.8%	28.0%	23.1%	1.21×	3.58
HT 1-0	21.5%	24.4%	19.2%	1.27×	4.10
HT 0-1	13.8%	11.0%	16.6%	0.66×	9.06
HT 1-1	11.1%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.09
HT 2-0	8.6%	6.9%	9.4%	0.73×	14.47
Any other HT score	6.3%	6.9%	6.9%	1.00×	14.50
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	41.99
HT 0-2	3.6%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	42.05
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.09
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	1.3%	1.76×	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	32.8%	32.2%	28.2%	1.14×	3.10
Draw at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	18.9%	16.7%	10.9%	1.53×	5.97
Freiburg at HT / Freiburg at FT	12.6%	12.6%	20.4%	0.62×	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.5%	12.6%	13.6%	0.93×	7.92
Draw at HT / Freiburg at FT	8.6%	6.0%	9.7%	0.62×	16.58
Freiburg at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.69
Mainz 05 at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	5.2%	0.67×	28.60
Freiburg at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	4.1%	3.5%	3.3%	1.06×	28.62
Mainz 05 at HT / Freiburg at FT	1.8%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score last	59.8%	56.6%	49.9%	1.13×	1.77
Freiburg to score last	36.6%	38.6%	44.4%	0.87×	2.59
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	5.8%	0.73×	23.36

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.4%	95.7%	94.2%	1.02×	1.05
Mainz 05 to lead by 1 at any time	71.1%	74.1%	60.1%	1.23×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.7%	54.9%	55.6%	0.99×	1.82
Freiburg to lead by 1 at any time	43.5%	39.2%	52.2%	0.75×	2.55
Mainz 05 to lead by 2 at any time	41.6%	39.1%	33.0%	1.19×	2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.7%	19.7%	25.5%	0.77×	5.08
Mainz 05 to lead by 3 at any time	20.1%	19.6%	15.7%	1.25×	5.10
Freiburg to lead by 2 at any time	15.6%	14.9%	23.4%	0.64×	6.71
Freiburg to lead by 3 at any time	4.6%	1.7%	9.9%	0.17×	60.27

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 most corners	54.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Freiburg most corners	33.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.4%	83.4%	82.9%	1.01×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.2%	78.7%	77.8%	1.01×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.3%	72.4%	72.0%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.3%	63.3%	59.9%	1.06×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.3%	59.1%	58.5%	1.01×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.0%	53.2%	50.4%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.5%	53.2%	51.5%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.0%	43.6%	38.3%	1.14×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.2%	39.2%	39.7%	0.99×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.9%	35.2%	31.6%	1.12×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.5%	35.2%	32.6%	1.08×	2.84
5-6 goals	18.9%	18.8%	18.1%	1.04×	5.31
7+ goals	5.2%	8.9%	4.3%	2.04×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 never behind	52.8%	62.5%	47.8%	1.31×	1.60
Freiburg never behind	25.3%	29.9%	39.9%	0.75×	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	45.7%	1.12×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	54.3%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.6%	51.7%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.4%	48.3%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.9%	53.1%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.4%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.1%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.4%	82.3%	82.0%	1.00×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.9%	77.3%	77.7%	0.99×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.5%	61.7%	62.7%	0.98×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.6%	58.6%	56.1%	1.04×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.4%	41.4%	43.9%	0.94×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.5%	38.3%	37.3%	1.03×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	24.1%	22.7%	22.3%	1.02×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.6%	17.7%	18.0%	0.98×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.9%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.6%	4.6%	5.8%	0.78×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.4%	92.4%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.4%	86.7%	87.2%	0.99×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.5%	81.1%	77.7%	1.04×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.5%	72.4%	71.6%	1.01×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.4%	51.9%	54.1%	0.96×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.6%	48.1%	45.9%	1.05×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.5%	27.6%	28.4%	0.97×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.5%	18.9%	22.3%	0.85×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.6%	13.3%	12.8%	1.04×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.6%	7.6%	4.7%	1.63×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.3%	89.1%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.2%	71.9%	76.9%	0.93×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.0%	63.2%	58.6%	1.08×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.0%	36.8%	41.4%	0.89×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.8%	28.1%	23.1%	1.22×	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.7%	10.9%	15.4%	0.71×	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.5%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.6%	68.7%	73.0%	0.94×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.5%	55.0%	55.6%	0.99×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.5%	45.0%	44.4%	1.01×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.4%	31.3%	27.0%	1.16×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.5%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg not to score in both halves	78.8%	78.5%	72.3%	1.09×	1.27
Mainz 05 not to score in both halves	60.5%	63.5%	64.2%	0.99×	1.58
Mainz 05 to score in both halves	39.5%	36.5%	35.8%	1.02×	2.74
Freiburg to score in both halves	21.2%	21.5%	27.7%	0.78×	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.5%	60.3%	59.4%	1.01×	1.66
Only Mainz 05 scores	24.7%	22.3%	19.9%	1.12×	4.49
Only Freiburg scores	9.1%	7.1%	15.1%	0.47×	14.02
Neither team scores	3.6%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.9%	17.5%	19.5%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.3%	17.5%	21.7%	0.80×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.0%	12.1%	12.3%	0.99×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	11.1%	1.09×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.9%	12.1%	11.4%	1.07×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.6%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.3%	37.4%	35.7%	1.05×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.8%	28.2%	23.1%	1.22×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.5%	26.1%	0.83×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.7%	10.8%	15.4%	0.70×	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.5%	54.3%	55.6%	0.98×	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	27.0%	29.3%	29.2%	1.00×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	13.5%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg not to win both halves	95.2%	97.1%	90.9%	1.07×	1.03
Mainz 05 not to win both halves	81.0%	83.8%	84.0%	1.00×	1.19
Mainz 05 to win both halves	19.0%	16.2%	16.0%	1.01×	6.17
Freiburg to win both halves	4.8%	2.9%	9.1%	0.31×	34.83

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win either half	68.7%	67.8%	58.2%	1.17×	1.47
Freiburg to win neither half	61.0%	65.0%	50.7%	1.28×	1.54
Freiburg to win either half	39.0%	35.0%	49.3%	0.71×	2.86
Mainz 05 to win neither half	31.3%	32.2%	41.8%	0.77×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg not to win to nil	90.9%	92.1%	84.9%	1.08×	1.09
Mainz 05 not to win to nil	75.3%	78.1%	80.1%	0.98×	1.28
Mainz 05 to win to nil	24.7%	21.9%	19.9%	1.10×	4.57
Freiburg to win to nil	9.1%	7.9%	15.1%	0.52×	12.62

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 by 1	22.3%	24.1%	17.7%	1.36×	4.15
Draw	21.2%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15
Mainz 05 by 2	16.9%	17.0%	12.7%	1.34×	5.87
Mainz 05 by 3+	16.6%	17.0%	12.0%	1.42×	5.87
Freiburg by 1	13.7%	11.8%	16.6%	0.71×	8.51
Freiburg by 2	6.3%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91
Freiburg by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	36.81