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Mainz 05 v Paderborn — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 29 August 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG

Mainz 05
0–0
1.55 – 0.69 xG
Paderborn
Shots
22 – 10
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
15 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-1.55 – -0.69
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Mainz 05 1.55 xGPaderborn 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jae-Sung Lee 1' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Fabio Gruber 3' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Laurin Curda 8' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Laurin Ulrich 20' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jano ter Horst 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 23' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)Laurin Curda 24' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Marvin Pieringer 27' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Danny da Costa 29' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Kaishu Sano 29' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Stefano Marino 30' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 34' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Phillip Tietz 36' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, From Corner)Kaishu Sano 38' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 41' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 42' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 47' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Anthony Caci 48' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Philipp Mwene 48' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Anthony Caci 61' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Phillip Tietz 70' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Danny da Costa 71' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Danny da Costa 71' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Danny da Costa 73' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Dominik Kohr 74' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Raphael Obermair 79' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Steffen Tigges 79' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Steffen Tigges 79' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Phillip Tietz 83' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Ransford Königsdörffer 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Danny da Costa 91' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Laurin Curda 92' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Mainz 05 attacking right Paderborn attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
3' Mainz 05 Fabio Gruber 0.03 From Corner — Blocked Shot Nadiem Amiri
8' Paderborn Laurin Curda 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Santiago Castañeda
20' Paderborn Laurin Ulrich 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Stefano Marino
21' Paderborn Jano ter Horst 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Vidovic
23' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.20 Open Play — Missed Shot Nadiem Amiri
24' Paderborn Laurin Curda 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marvin Pieringer
27' Paderborn Marvin Pieringer 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jano ter Horst
29' Mainz 05 Danny da Costa 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
29' Mainz 05 Kaishu Sano 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
30' Paderborn Stefano Marino 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Laurin Curda
34' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Phillip Tietz
36' Mainz 05 Phillip Tietz 0.05 From Corner — Shot On Post Nadiem Amiri
38' Mainz 05 Kaishu Sano 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jae-Sung Lee
41' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
42' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.07 Open Play — Missed Shot Danny da Costa
47' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.09 Set Piece — Missed Shot Nadiem Amiri
48' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
48' Mainz 05 Philipp Mwene 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Anthony Caci
61' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
70' Mainz 05 Phillip Tietz 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
71' Mainz 05 Danny da Costa 0.06 Set Piece — Blocked Shot Nadiem Amiri
71' Mainz 05 Danny da Costa 0.04 Set Piece — Missed Shot Kaishu Sano
73' Mainz 05 Danny da Costa 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Nadiem Amiri
74' Mainz 05 Dominik Kohr 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
79' Paderborn Raphael Obermair 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
79' Paderborn Steffen Tigges 0.03 Set Piece — Missed Shot Raphael Obermair
79' Paderborn Steffen Tigges 0.07 Set Piece — Missed Shot Raphael Obermair
83' Mainz 05 Phillip Tietz 0.33 Open Play — Missed Shot Silvan Widmer
83' Mainz 05 Ransford Königsdörffer 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Danny da Costa
91' Mainz 05 Danny da Costa 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Phillip Tietz
92' Paderborn Laurin Curda 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —

Players

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Phillip Tietz FW 90 0 0 3 2 0.44 0.06 0.81
Danny da Costa DC 90 0 0 5 2 0.19 0.10 0.23
Nadiem Amiri MC 90 0 0 2 6 0.14 0.49 0.42
Kaishu Sano DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.04 0.66
Philipp Mwene ML 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.16
Fabio Gruber DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.14
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Dominik Kohr DC 81 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.32
Anthony Caci MR 74 0 0 2 2 0.15 0.18 0.43
Jae-Sung Lee MC 69 0 0 4 1 0.38 0.06 0.45
Sheraldo Becker FW 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Ransford Königsdörffer Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Otto Ruoppi Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Silvan Widmer Sub 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.33 0.33
Kacper Potulski Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36

Paderborn

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Laurin Curda DMR 90 0 0 3 1 0.34 0.11 0.45
Marvin Pieringer FWR 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.29 0.50
Raphael Obermair DML 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.10 0.17
Jano ter Horst DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.11
Santiago Castañeda MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.21
Nahuel Nicolas Noll GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Gabriel Vidovic FWL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.25
Tjark Scheller DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Laurin Ulrich MC 76 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.23
Mattes Hansen DC 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Stefano Marino FW 68 0 0 1 1 0.11 0.02 0.23
Steffen Tigges Sub 22 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.00
Jonah Sticker Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tom Baack Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Clemens Lippmann Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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