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Mainz 05 v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 October 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
16 – 11
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-0.61 – -0.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Xavi Simons 19' — goalWilli Orban 36' — goal
Mainz 05 0.61 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 2.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jonathan Burkardt 7' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 14' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 15' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 19' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 21' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 22' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Antonio Nusa 28' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 29' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 31' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 33' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Kaishu Sano 33' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 34' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 36' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Willi Orban 36' — Goal (0.74 xG, From Corner)Anthony Caci 38' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 38' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 45' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Maxim Leitsch 53' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jae-Sung Lee 65' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Anthony Caci 66' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arthur Vermeeren 67' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Paul Nebel 68' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 69' — Saved Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 71' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Willi Orban 88' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Paul Nebel 92' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Vidovic 93' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Mainz 05 attacking right RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Mwene
14' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nadiem Amiri
15' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
19' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal Amadou Haidara
21' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
22' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
28' RasenBallsport Leipzig Antonio Nusa 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Castello Lukeba
29' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.03 Open Play Saved Shot Danny da Costa
31' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
33' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Nadiem Amiri
33' Mainz 05 Kaishu Sano 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
34' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
36' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Xavi Simons
36' RasenBallsport Leipzig Willi Orban 0.74 From Corner Right Foot Goal
38' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
38' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Anthony Caci
45' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
53' Mainz 05 Maxim Leitsch 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jae-Sung Lee
65' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Nadiem Amiri
66' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
67' RasenBallsport Leipzig Arthur Vermeeren 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Xavi Simons
68' Mainz 05 Paul Nebel 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
69' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
71' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Loïs Openda
88' RasenBallsport Leipzig Willi Orban 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Xavi Simons
92' Mainz 05 Paul Nebel 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Mwene
93' Mainz 05 Gabriel Vidovic 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nadiem Amiri

Players

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jonathan Burkardt FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.08
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.02
Philipp Mwene DML 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.27
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Danny da Costa DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.09
Nadiem Amiri MC 90 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.25 0.23
Moritz Jenz DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Anthony Caci DMR 88 0 0 2 3 0.05 0.11 0.17
Maxim Leitsch DC 88 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.05
Jae-Sung Lee AMC 75 0 0 3 1 0.12 0.01 0.26
Armindo Sieb AMC 60 0 0 4 0 0.21 0.00 0.21
Paul Nebel Sub 30 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Nelson Weiper Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gabriel Vidovic Sub 2 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Silvan Widmer Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

RasenBallsport Leipzig

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Willi Orban DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.78 0.00 0.49
Xavi Simons AMC 90 1 0 2 3 0.43 0.21 0.58
Lukas Klostermann DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lutsharel Geertruida DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Péter Gulácsi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Castello Lukeba DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.39
Loïs Openda FW 85 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.28 0.36
Benjamin Sesko AMC 75 0 0 3 0 0.71 0.00 0.71
Arthur Vermeeren MC 75 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Antonio Nusa DML 75 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.67
Amadou Haidara MC 57 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.36 0.36
Kevin Kampl Sub 33 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eljif Elmas Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christoph Baumgartner Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benjamin Henrichs Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yussuf Poulsen Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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