Mainz 05 v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 16
On target
3 – 9
Shots in box
10 – 12
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 1.24
Goals − xG
-1.11 – +0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
57.7%
Draw
23.3%
Union Berlin win
19.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLWLWL last 10
scored 21
from 24.9 xG
conceded 17
from 18.9 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.18–1.05 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 2.11 xGUnion Berlin 2.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 8' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 9' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 16' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 27' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 31' |
 Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 35' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Posch | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 36' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 37' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Goal | Aljoscha Kemlein |
| 38' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Paul Nebel |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.11 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 49' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Kacper Potulski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Kacper Potulski | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 52' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 53' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 54' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 54' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Leite |
| 64' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 69' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 80' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Posch | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Aljoscha Kemlein |
| 87' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
| 89' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tim Skarke |
| 94' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Derrick Köhn |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 0.85 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Paul Nebel MC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 1.00 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.40 | 0.98 |
| Kacper Potulski Sub | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jae-Sung Lee Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.17 | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| Oliver Burke AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.55 | 1.23 |
| Carl Klaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.22 |
| Rani Khedira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tom Rothe DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Livan Burcu AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.65 | 0.67 |