Mainz 05 v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 8
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.83 – +1.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
31.7%
Draw
26.8%
VfB Stuttgart win
41.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLWDWLWLW last 10
scored 22
from 26.3 xG
conceded 18
from 18.3 xG
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDLWLLWLL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 19
from 24.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.55 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.87 | 1-1 9% | 71% | 71% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 3.83 xGVfB Stuttgart 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 4' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 17' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Jaquez |
| 23' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 25' |
 Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 29' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 31' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 35' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 38' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Goal | Danny da Costa |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 49' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 54' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 62' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 65' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 65' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 67' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 70' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 74' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Deniz Undav |
| 76' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tiago Tomás |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 88' |
Mainz 05 |
Danny da Costa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 89' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Stefan Posch |
| 90' |
Mainz 05 |
Danny da Costa | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Paul Nebel |
| 95' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | William Bøving |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Leweling AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.42 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.43 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deniz Undav AMC | 85 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.12 | 0.60 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Chris Führich AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Finn Jeltsch Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jeremy Arévalo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.03 | 1.16 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.32 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Paul Nebel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.98 | 1.72 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.87 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Silvan Widmer DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.41 | 1.38 | 1.79 |
| Silas Wamangituka Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Bøving Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |