Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 5
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.90 – +0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mainz 05 win
46.7%
Draw
25.5%
Werder Bremen win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.44 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mainz 05 1.90 xGWerder Bremen 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mainz 05 attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 5' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 12' |
 Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 18' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 22' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Kohr |
| 23' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nadiem Amiri |
| 35' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Benedict Hollerbach |
| 39' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 46' |
Mainz 05 |
Lennard Maloney | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 56' |
Mainz 05 |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 64' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 64' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 85' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cameron Puertas |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Stage DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Friedl DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Grüll AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Victor Boniface FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula AML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Puertas Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Stark Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lennard Maloney DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jae-Sung Lee FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.53 | 0.23 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Silvan Widmer DML | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Philipp Mwene DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Benedict Hollerbach AMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny da Costa Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |