Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Mainz 05

09:30

Werder Bremen

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 1,134h before kick-off

Mainz 05 win

62.4%

model 63.2%

Draw

18.9%

model 19.8%

Werder Bremen win

18.7%

model 17.0%

621919

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.9%
2-0 9.5%
1-1 9.1%
1-0 8.8%
3-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.1%	Under 2.5	37.9%
BTTS yes	57.1%	BTTS no	42.9%
Mainz 05 1+	88.6%	Mainz 05 2+	63.8%
Werder Bremen 1+	64.5%	Werder Bremen 2+	27.7%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Mainz 05 (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 42%

63.5% fair odds 1.58

strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Werder Bremen not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 72%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mainz 05 carry the stronger rating, 1553 Elo against 1432.
Mainz 05 have created 2.34 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 2.14.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Mainz 05 average 1.74 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Werder Bremen were missing 1.12 expected goal involvements a match against 0.45.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mainz 05 have an estimated 62.4% win probability, against 18.9% for the draw and 18.7% for Werder Bremen. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.17 for Mainz 05 and 1.04 for Werder Bremen.

Why Mainz 05

Mainz 05 carry the stronger rating, 1553 Elo against 1432. Mainz 05 have created 2.34 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 2.14. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Mainz 05 average 1.74 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Werder Bremen were missing 1.12 expected goal involvements a match against 0.45.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Werder Bremen can win

Werder Bremen have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while Mainz 05 have allowed 1.53. Away from home Werder Bremen average 0.93 xG a match.

Key players

Mainz 05's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Phillip Tietz (0.61), Nadiem Amiri (0.55), Sheraldo Becker (0.54). Werder Bremen's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Romano Schmid (0.44), Jens Stage (0.30), Niclas Füllkrug (0.28).

Availability

Mainz 05 changed goalkeeper for their last match. 2 of Werder Bremen's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Werder Bremen's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mainz 05: 48% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.52 xG a match from set pieces. Werder Bremen: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Mainz 05's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Mainz 05 are the model's most likely outcome at 62.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDLWLWDW last 10 scored 18 from 23.4 xG conceded 12 from 15.3 xG

Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWDLLLLW last 10 scored 12 from 9.3 xG conceded 18 from 21.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	632017	2.17–1.04	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	592120	2.01–1.08	2-1 10%	60%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win	65.2%	64.9%	41.6%	1.56×	1.54
Draw	18.5%	19.3%	24.8%	0.78×	5.17
Werder Bremen to win	16.2%	19.3%	33.7%	0.57×	5.18

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & both teams score	34.7%	29.7%	22.2%	1.34×	3.36
Mainz 05 & not both score	30.5%	29.7%	19.6%	1.51×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	15.3%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
Werder Bremen & both teams score	9.8%	8.4%	18.4%	0.46×	11.92
Werder Bremen & not both score	6.4%	8.4%	15.5%	0.54×	11.93
Draw & not both score	3.3%	4.9%	5.9%	0.83×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 & over 1.5	57.6%	54.9%	35.4%	1.55×	1.82
Mainz 05 & over 2.5	48.7%	45.2%	29.4%	1.54×	2.21
Mainz 05 & under 3.5	33.2%	30.9%	21.5%	1.43×	3.24
Mainz 05 & over 3.5	32.1%	30.9%	20.3%	1.52×	3.24
Mainz 05 & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	12.3%	1.46×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Werder Bremen & over 1.5	12.7%	12.9%	27.8%	0.46×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	11.6%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	11.6%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.77
Werder Bremen & over 2.5	10.7%	12.9%	23.6%	0.55×	7.77
Werder Bremen & under 3.5	10.7%	12.9%	19.8%	0.65×	7.77
Mainz 05 & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.24×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Werder Bremen & under 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.70
Werder Bremen & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	5.9%	0.82×	20.94
Werder Bremen & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (1UP)	77.7%	78.9%	59.6%	1.32×	1.27
Werder Bremen (1UP)	36.1%	34.2%	52.9%	0.65×	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2UP)	65.2%	68.4%	45.0%	1.52×	1.46
Werder Bremen (2UP)	16.2%	17.3%	36.6%	0.47×	5.78

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win 2nd half	47.8%	45.5%	37.1%	1.23×	2.20
2nd half drawn	30.2%	34.5%	33.4%	1.03×	2.90
Werder Bremen to win 2nd half	22.0%	23.1%	29.6%	0.78×	4.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (+0.5)	83.8%	82.4%	66.3%	1.24×	1.21
Werder Bremen (+2.5)	76.4%	78.4%	88.3%	0.89×	1.28
Mainz 05 (-0.5)	65.2%	68.7%	41.6%	1.65×	1.46
Werder Bremen (+1.5)	57.2%	57.0%	75.3%	0.76×	1.75
Mainz 05 (-1.5)	42.8%	43.0%	24.7%	1.74×	2.33
Werder Bremen (+0.5)	34.8%	31.3%	58.4%	0.54×	3.20
Mainz 05 (-2.5)	23.6%	21.6%	11.7%	1.84×	4.64
Werder Bremen (-0.5)	16.2%	17.6%	33.7%	0.52×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to concede	90.3%	91.7%	78.8%	1.16×	1.09
Werder Bremen clean sheet	9.7%	8.3%	21.2%	0.39×	12.04

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to concede in 1st half	67.5%	69.4%	51.8%	1.34×	1.44
Werder Bremen clean sheet in 1st half	32.5%	30.6%	48.2%	0.64×	3.27

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen under 3.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Werder Bremen under 2.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	79.0%	1.17×	1.08
Werder Bremen under 1.5 goals	70.4%	71.9%	57.1%	1.26×	1.39
Werder Bremen over 0.5 goals	66.2%	67.9%	74.7%	0.91×	1.47
Werder Bremen under 0.5 goals	33.8%	32.1%	25.3%	1.27×	3.12
Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals	29.6%	28.1%	42.9%	0.65×	3.56
Werder Bremen over 2.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	21.0%	0.37×	13.01
Werder Bremen over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	7.4%	0.33×	40.75

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.3%	85.7%	1.10×	1.06
Werder Bremen under 0.5 in 1st half	69.4%	68.5%	54.4%	1.26×	1.46
Werder Bremen over 0.5 in 1st half	30.6%	31.5%	45.6%	0.69×	3.17
Werder Bremen over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	5.7%	14.3%	0.40×	17.43

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (away no bet)	77.9%	73.7%	62.6%	1.18×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.1%	26.3%	37.4%	0.70×	3.80

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen even goals	55.7%	56.9%	53.2%	1.07×	1.76
Werder Bremen odd goals	44.3%	43.1%	46.8%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.8%	77.4%	75.8%	1.02×	1.29
Both halves over 1.5 goals	25.2%	22.6%	24.2%	0.93×	4.42

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.1%	72.5%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.9%	27.5%	27.7%	0.99×	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.0%	62.4%	66.9%	0.93×	1.60
Mainz 05 to score 2+ in a row	59.4%	55.3%	42.3%	1.31×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	33.8%	29.0%	29.5%	0.99×	3.44
Mainz 05 to score 3+ in a row	30.2%	28.9%	17.6%	1.64×	3.46
Werder Bremen to score 2+ in a row	19.1%	16.4%	34.7%	0.47×	6.11
Werder Bremen to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.6%	12.8%	0.20×	38.04

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	8.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
Any other score	9.2%	7.4%	5.4%	1.38×	13.48
1-0	7.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
1-1	8.3%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
3-0	6.9%	7.4%	2.7%	2.76×	13.48
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
0-0	3.3%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.47
0-1	3.5%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.47
0-2	1.9%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.48
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.49
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.49
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.46
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.49
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.48
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.47
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.48
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
4-0	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.47
4-1	4.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.46
4-2	2.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.80×	58.48
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 leading at HT (DNB)	82.2%	86.5%	55.5%	1.56×	1.16
Werder Bremen leading at HT (DNB)	17.8%	13.5%	44.5%	0.30×	7.42

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw (1X)	83.8%	80.7%	66.3%	1.22×	1.24
Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen (12)	81.5%	80.7%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Werder Bremen or draw (X2)	34.8%	35.1%	58.4%	0.60×	2.85

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw at HT	88.0%	88.3%	70.7%	1.25×	1.13
Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen at HT	67.2%	66.4%	65.8%	1.01×	1.51
Werder Bremen or draw at HT	44.8%	43.4%	63.4%	0.68×	2.31

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw (1UP)	83.8%	88.6%	73.5%	1.21×	1.13
Werder Bremen or draw (1UP)	36.1%	42.2%	65.1%	0.65×	2.37

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 or draw in 2nd half	78.0%	76.9%	70.4%	1.09×	1.30
Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen in 2nd half	69.8%	65.5%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
Werder Bremen or draw in 2nd half	52.2%	54.5%	62.9%	0.87×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	46.9%	50.1%	46.3%	1.08×	2.00
A half drawn	53.1%	49.9%	53.7%	0.93×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (DNB)	80.1%	80.4%	55.3%	1.46×	1.24
Werder Bremen (DNB)	19.9%	19.6%	44.7%	0.44×	5.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score first	66.0%	69.1%	50.7%	1.36×	1.45
Werder Bremen to score first	30.7%	27.0%	43.6%	0.62×	3.70
No goal scored	3.3%	4.3%	5.9%	0.73×	23.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.8%	54.9%	59.3%	0.93×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.2%	45.1%	40.7%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.5%	47.1%	49.7%	0.95×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	25.3%	33.6%	28.2%	1.19×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	14.9%	12.3%	12.7%	0.98×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	8.3%	8.4%	9.8%	0.85×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.0%	80.0%	79.7%	1.00×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	0.99×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.9%	66.2%	65.6%	1.01×	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.1%	33.8%	34.4%	0.98×	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.8%	55.8%	51.7%	1.08×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	28.6%	26.6%	27.7%	0.96×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.8%	14.1%	0.76×	9.29
Both score in both halves	7.4%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.4%	81.6%	79.2%	1.03×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.6%	18.4%	20.8%	0.89×	5.43

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.2%	66.7%	66.9%	1.00×	1.50
A half without a goal	33.8%	33.3%	33.1%	1.01×	3.00

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.9%	42.1%	38.8%	1.09×	2.38
4-6 goals	38.7%	35.1%	39.9%	0.88×	2.85
0-1 goals	14.5%	17.0%	17.9%	0.95×	5.90
7+ goals	5.9%	7.6%	3.8%	1.99×	13.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	32.0%	1.13×	2.78
Werder Bremen to score exactly 0	33.8%	33.8%	25.3%	1.34×	2.96
Werder Bremen to score exactly 2	19.9%	19.6%	22.0%	0.89×	5.11
Werder Bremen to score 3+	9.7%	8.5%	21.0%	0.40×	11.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score 3+	41.3%	34.9%	27.4%	1.27×	2.87
Mainz 05 to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Mainz 05 to score exactly 1	22.6%	23.2%	29.1%	0.80×	4.30
Mainz 05 to score exactly 0	9.7%	10.3%	21.2%	0.49×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 leading at HT	55.2%	56.6%	36.6%	1.55×	1.77
Draw at HT	32.8%	33.6%	34.2%	0.98×	2.98
Werder Bremen leading at HT	12.0%	11.7%	29.3%	0.40×	8.52

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 -1: 1	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Mainz 05 -1: 2	34.8%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Mainz 05 -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (0:1)	42.8%	42.7%	24.7%	1.73×	2.34
Werder Bremen (0:1)	34.8%	30.1%	58.4%	0.52×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.4%	24.3%	17.1%	1.42×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen (0:2)	57.2%	62.8%	75.3%	0.83×	1.59
Mainz 05 (0:2)	23.6%	20.4%	11.7%	1.74×	4.91
Draw (0:2)	19.3%	15.3%	13.1%	1.17×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen (0:3)	76.4%	80.4%	88.3%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.6%	10.0%	5.1%	1.98×	9.99
Mainz 05 (0:3)	10.9%	10.0%	6.8%	1.47×	10.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen (0:4)	89.1%	92.0%	93.2%	0.99×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.6%	4.6%	5.2%	0.89×	21.55
Mainz 05 (0:4)	4.3%	1.2%	1.7%	0.69×	83.17

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (1:0)	83.8%	81.5%	66.3%	1.23×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.4%	12.8%	16.5%	0.78×	7.81
Werder Bremen (1:0)	5.8%	6.9%	17.4%	0.40×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 (2:0)	94.2%	94.0%	82.6%	1.14×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.2%	2.3%	10.0%	0.23×	44.10
Werder Bremen (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	7.6%	0.30×	44.27

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.1%	48.2%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	29.9%	26.6%	26.3%	1.01×	3.77
Halves equal	22.0%	24.1%	26.9%	0.89×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to concede	66.2%	66.5%	74.7%	0.89×	1.50
Mainz 05 clean sheet	33.8%	33.5%	25.3%	1.32×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 clean sheet in 1st half	69.4%	68.8%	54.4%	1.27×	1.45
Mainz 05 to concede in 1st half	30.6%	31.2%	45.6%	0.68×	3.20

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 over 0.5 goals	90.3%	92.2%	78.8%	1.17×	1.08
Mainz 05 under 3.5 goals	79.2%	77.8%	88.6%	0.88×	1.29
Mainz 05 over 1.5 goals	67.7%	67.9%	49.8%	1.36×	1.47
Mainz 05 under 2.5 goals	58.7%	58.8%	72.6%	0.81×	1.70
Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals	41.3%	41.2%	27.4%	1.50×	2.43
Mainz 05 under 1.5 goals	32.3%	32.1%	50.2%	0.64×	3.11
Mainz 05 over 3.5 goals	20.8%	22.2%	11.4%	1.95×	4.50
Mainz 05 under 0.5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	21.2%	0.37×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 under 1.5 in 1st half	69.0%	68.2%	80.8%	0.84×	1.47
Mainz 05 over 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	68.0%	51.8%	1.31×	1.47
Mainz 05 under 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	32.0%	48.2%	0.66×	3.13
Mainz 05 over 1.5 in 1st half	31.0%	31.8%	19.2%	1.66×	3.15

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.4%	51.6%	42.4%	1.22×	1.94
Werder Bremen (home no bet)	46.6%	48.4%	57.6%	0.84×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 even goals	50.5%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Mainz 05 odd goals	49.5%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	25.4%	28.8%	19.3%	1.49×	3.48
HT 0-0	22.6%	24.1%	23.3%	1.03×	4.15
HT 2-0	14.3%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.14
Any other HT score	11.0%	10.9%	6.7%	1.64×	9.17
HT 1-1	9.3%	7.1%	9.8%	0.73×	14.02
HT 0-1	8.2%	7.1%	16.5%	0.43×	14.03
HT 2-1	5.2%	7.1%	4.3%	1.66×	14.08
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.49
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.50
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.3%	1.81×	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	47.3%	44.7%	28.1%	1.59×	2.24
Draw at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	15.7%	16.7%	10.6%	1.58×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.9%	6.0%	13.9%	0.43×	16.59
Draw at HT / Werder Bremen at FT	7.2%	6.0%	10.0%	0.60×	16.67
Werder Bremen at HT / Werder Bremen at FT	6.8%	6.0%	20.3%	0.30×	16.68
Mainz 05 at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	5.1%	1.18×	16.72
Werder Bremen at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.5%	6.0%	0.58×	28.85
Mainz 05 at HT / Werder Bremen at FT	2.2%	3.5%	3.8%	0.91×	28.88
Werder Bremen at HT / Mainz 05 at FT	2.3%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to score last	66.0%	70.0%	49.8%	1.41×	1.43
Werder Bremen to score last	30.7%	32.7%	44.5%	0.73×	3.06
No goal scored	3.3%	4.3%	5.9%	0.73×	23.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.7%	95.7%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Mainz 05 to lead by 1 at any time	77.7%	78.2%	59.6%	1.31×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	61.0%	61.2%	55.9%	1.09×	1.63
Mainz 05 to lead by 2 at any time	50.5%	50.6%	33.1%	1.53×	1.98
Werder Bremen to lead by 1 at any time	36.1%	34.8%	52.9%	0.66×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	30.1%	29.3%	25.7%	1.14×	3.41
Mainz 05 to lead by 3 at any time	27.4%	25.4%	15.5%	1.64×	3.93
Werder Bremen to lead by 2 at any time	10.9%	10.4%	23.6%	0.44×	9.58
Werder Bremen to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	10.3%	0.16×	61.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.6%	83.5%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.7%	78.6%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	71.2%	1.02×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.8%	72.4%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
3-6 goals	60.5%	63.4%	58.5%	1.08×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.6%	59.2%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.2%	53.2%	51.3%	1.04×	1.88
1-3 goals	52.1%	53.2%	50.8%	1.05×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.9%	43.6%	38.8%	1.12×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	40.3%	1.08×	2.30
4-6 goals	38.7%	39.2%	39.9%	0.98×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.4%	35.4%	32.6%	1.08×	2.83
1-2 goals	30.3%	35.4%	32.1%	1.10×	2.83
5-6 goals	20.0%	24.5%	18.4%	1.33×	4.09
7+ goals	5.9%	8.7%	3.8%	2.30×	11.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 never behind	60.6%	67.2%	47.1%	1.43×	1.49
Werder Bremen never behind	19.0%	18.8%	40.4%	0.47×	5.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	44.8%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	55.2%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.5%	51.7%	52.6%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.5%	48.3%	47.4%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	52.0%	52.9%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.0%	47.1%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.7%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	86.8%	87.6%	88.9%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.5%	87.6%	82.1%	1.07×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	74.1%	72.5%	78.0%	0.93×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	66.4%	66.2%	62.2%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	55.4%	58.8%	56.5%	1.04×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	44.6%	41.2%	43.5%	0.95×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	33.6%	33.8%	37.8%	0.89×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	25.9%	27.5%	22.0%	1.25×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	12.4%	17.9%	0.69×	8.09
Over 5.5 goals	13.2%	12.4%	11.1%	1.12×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	3.3%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.6%	92.5%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.9%	81.1%	87.6%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.1%	81.1%	77.7%	1.04×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.1%	67.4%	72.0%	0.94×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.0%	55.4%	53.5%	1.04×	1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.0%	44.6%	46.5%	0.96×	2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.9%	32.6%	28.0%	1.16×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.9%	18.9%	22.3%	0.85×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.1%	18.9%	12.4%	1.52×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.4%	7.5%	4.1%	1.84×	13.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.2%	86.2%	84.8%	1.02×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.4%	78.8%	76.7%	1.03×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.2%	62.6%	58.8%	1.06×	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.8%	37.4%	41.2%	0.91×	2.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.6%	21.2%	23.3%	0.91×	4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.8%	13.8%	15.2%	0.91×	7.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.5%	85.3%	84.3%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	67.7%	73.4%	0.92×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	54.8%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	45.2%	44.7%	1.01×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	32.3%	26.6%	1.21×	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.5%	14.7%	15.7%	0.94×	6.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen not to score in both halves	84.3%	84.4%	72.4%	1.17×	1.19
Mainz 05 not to score in both halves	52.6%	55.7%	64.8%	0.86×	1.80
Mainz 05 to score in both halves	47.4%	44.3%	35.2%	1.26×	2.26
Werder Bremen to score in both halves	15.7%	15.6%	27.6%	0.57×	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.8%	58.4%	59.3%	0.98×	1.71
Only Mainz 05 scores	30.5%	33.3%	19.6%	1.70×	3.00
Only Werder Bremen scores	6.4%	7.2%	15.5%	0.46×	13.92
Neither team scores	3.3%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.85

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	18.8%	1.20×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	19.1%	17.4%	20.1%	0.87×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	18.7%	17.4%	21.7%	0.80×	5.74
6 or more goals	13.2%	12.1%	11.1%	1.09×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	12.8%	12.1%	11.1%	1.09×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	11.2%	12.1%	12.2%	0.99×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.3%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.5%	53.4%	55.3%	0.96×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	28.0%	29.8%	29.2%	1.02×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.5%	14.6%	15.7%	0.93×	6.87

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen not to win both halves	97.4%	97.2%	90.5%	1.07×	1.03
Mainz 05 not to win both halves	73.6%	72.9%	84.2%	0.87×	1.37
Mainz 05 to win both halves	26.4%	27.1%	15.8%	1.71×	3.69
Werder Bremen to win both halves	2.6%	2.8%	9.5%	0.29×	36.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 to win either half	76.6%	79.6%	57.8%	1.38×	1.26
Werder Bremen to win neither half	68.6%	67.9%	50.6%	1.34×	1.47
Werder Bremen to win either half	31.4%	32.1%	49.4%	0.65×	3.12
Mainz 05 to win neither half	23.4%	20.4%	42.2%	0.48×	4.91

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen not to win to nil	93.6%	92.1%	84.5%	1.09×	1.09
Mainz 05 not to win to nil	69.5%	69.7%	80.4%	0.87×	1.44
Mainz 05 to win to nil	30.5%	30.3%	19.6%	1.54×	3.30
Werder Bremen to win to nil	6.4%	7.9%	15.5%	0.51×	12.59

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mainz 05 by 3+	23.6%	24.2%	11.7%	2.06×	4.14
Mainz 05 by 1	22.4%	24.1%	17.1%	1.41×	4.14
Mainz 05 by 2	19.3%	16.9%	13.1%	1.29×	5.91
Draw	18.5%	16.9%	24.8%	0.68×	5.91
Werder Bremen by 1	10.4%	11.8%	16.5%	0.72×	8.48
Werder Bremen by 2	4.2%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.95
Werder Bremen by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	7.6%	0.36×	37.03