Malaga v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Malaga

15:00 UTC

Real Sociedad

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 939h before kick-off

Malaga win

36.4%

model 35.8%

Draw

27.0%

model 26.1%

Real Sociedad win

36.6%

model 38.1%

362737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.4%
0-1 9.5%
1-0 9.2%
1-2 8.4%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.4%	Under 2.5	50.6%
BTTS yes	53.9%	BTTS no	46.1%
Malaga 1+	72.8%	Malaga 2+	37.4%
Real Sociedad 1+	74.1%	Real Sociedad 2+	39.1%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.35. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Real Sociedad clean sheet in 2nd half

Away clean sheet 2HT · usually 41%

54.7% fair odds 1.83

moderate signal · 714 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Malaga (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 89%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 382 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Away from home Real Sociedad average 0.85 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Sociedad have an estimated 36.6% win probability, against 36.4% for Malaga and 27.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Malaga and 1.35 for Real Sociedad.

Why Malaga

Malaga carry the stronger rating, 1595 Elo against 1509. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Real Sociedad were missing 0.90 expected goal involvements a match against 0.18.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.30 to 1.35. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Real Sociedad can win

Away from home Real Sociedad average 0.85 xG a match.

Key players

Malaga's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Chupe (0.50), David Larrubia (0.28), Dani Lorenzo (0.17). Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.50), Orri Óskarsson (0.36), Brais Méndez (0.25).

Availability

2 of Real Sociedad's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Sociedad had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.08 expected goal involvements a match. Real Sociedad changed goalkeeper for their last match. Reported unavailable for Real Sociedad: Jon Martín (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Malaga: 53% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. Real Sociedad: 49% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Real Sociedad are the model's most likely outcome at 36.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Malaga are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 4 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDLD last 4 scored 1 from 4.1 xG conceded 7 from 7.1 xG

Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDDLDLLWDW last 10 scored 13 from 12.3 xG conceded 17 from 19.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362638	1.30–1.35	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382735	1.31–1.24	1-1 13%	47%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win	38.7%	36.3%	28.1%	1.29×	2.75
Malaga to win	35.1%	36.3%	46.8%	0.78×	2.76
Draw	26.2%	27.8%	25.2%	1.11×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad & not both score	20.7%	21.8%	14.6%	1.50×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	17.9%	20.2%	0.89×	5.58
Malaga & not both score	18.6%	17.9%	25.3%	0.71×	5.58
Real Sociedad & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	13.7%	1.31×	5.58
Malaga & both teams score	16.5%	17.9%	21.7%	0.83×	5.58
Draw & not both score	7.2%	8.4%	5.1%	1.64×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad & over 1.5	29.0%	26.0%	21.2%	1.23×	3.84
Real Sociedad & under 3.5	27.8%	26.0%	21.7%	1.20×	3.84
Malaga & over 1.5	25.9%	26.0%	34.1%	0.76×	3.84
Malaga & under 3.5	25.5%	26.0%	33.0%	0.79×	3.84
Real Sociedad & over 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	16.7%	1.29×	4.63
Malaga & over 2.5	20.0%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.7%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Real Sociedad & under 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	11.6%	1.55×	5.56
Malaga & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Real Sociedad & over 3.5	11.0%	12.9%	6.6%	1.95×	7.76
Malaga & under 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	12.8%	0.62×	12.65
Malaga & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.65
Real Sociedad & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.5%	7.9%	5.2%	1.51×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.5%	7.9%	5.2%	1.51×	12.65

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (1UP)	55.0%	52.9%	47.1%	1.12×	1.89
Malaga (1UP)	51.8%	52.7%	63.2%	0.83×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2UP)	38.7%	37.2%	29.7%	1.25×	2.69
Malaga (2UP)	35.1%	37.0%	48.7%	0.76×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.4%	41.0%	33.0%	1.25×	2.44
Real Sociedad to win 2nd half	30.3%	34.4%	27.7%	1.24×	2.90
Malaga to win 2nd half	28.3%	26.4%	39.5%	0.67×	3.78

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	86.6%	84.5%	1.03×	1.15
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.4%	48.3%	1.11×	1.87
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	46.6%	51.7%	0.90×	2.15
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	13.4%	15.5%	0.86×	7.49

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	88.0%	80.0%	1.10×	1.14
Malaga under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	53.4%	41.3%	1.29×	1.87
Malaga over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	46.6%	58.7%	0.80×	2.14
Malaga over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	12.0%	20.0%	0.60×	8.31

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (+2.5)	94.8%	92.1%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Real Sociedad (+1.5)	84.7%	82.5%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Real Sociedad (+0.5)	64.9%	62.9%	53.2%	1.18×	1.59
Malaga (+0.5)	61.3%	62.9%	71.9%	0.88×	1.59
Real Sociedad (-0.5)	38.7%	37.1%	28.1%	1.32×	2.70
Malaga (-0.5)	35.1%	37.1%	46.8%	0.79×	2.70
Malaga (-1.5)	15.3%	17.5%	20.8%	0.84×	5.71
Malaga (-2.5)	5.2%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede	72.1%	76.6%	80.4%	0.95×	1.31
Real Sociedad clean sheet	27.9%	23.4%	19.6%	1.20×	4.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede in 1st half	49.1%	50.8%	48.1%	1.06×	1.97
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 1st half	50.9%	49.2%	51.9%	0.95×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 2nd half	54.9%	52.9%	41.3%	1.28×	1.89
Real Sociedad to concede in 2nd half	45.1%	47.1%	58.7%	0.80×	2.12

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad over 2.5 corners	83.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Real Sociedad over 3.5 corners	70.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Sociedad under 6.5 corners	70.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Sociedad under 5.5 corners	58.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad under 4.5 corners	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad over 5.5 corners	41.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad under 3.5 corners	29.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Real Sociedad over 6.5 corners	29.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Real Sociedad under 2.5 corners	16.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 3.5 goals	95.1%	97.5%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals	84.4%	81.4%	90.0%	0.90×	1.23
Real Sociedad over 0.5 goals	74.2%	71.9%	69.7%	1.03×	1.39
Real Sociedad under 1.5 goals	60.8%	63.1%	68.1%	0.93×	1.59
Real Sociedad over 1.5 goals	39.2%	36.9%	31.9%	1.16×	2.71
Real Sociedad under 0.5 goals	25.8%	28.1%	30.3%	0.93×	3.56
Real Sociedad over 2.5 goals	15.6%	18.6%	10.0%	1.87×	5.37
Real Sociedad over 3.5 goals	4.9%	2.5%	2.7%	0.91×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 1st half	83.6%	83.1%	93.3%	0.89×	1.20
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 1st half	51.5%	55.7%	36.6%	1.52×	1.80
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 1st half	48.5%	44.3%	63.4%	0.70×	2.26
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 1st half	16.4%	16.9%	6.7%	2.51×	5.91

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad scores equally in both	39.0%	36.5%	42.2%	0.86×	2.74
Real Sociedad scores more in 1st half	33.3%	34.2%	20.8%	1.64×	2.93
Real Sociedad scores more in 2nd half	27.7%	26.2%	37.1%	0.71×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (away no bet)	57.2%	57.3%	65.1%	0.88×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.8%	42.7%	34.9%	1.22×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad even goals	53.3%	52.8%	53.9%	0.98×	1.89
Real Sociedad odd goals	46.7%	47.2%	46.1%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.8%	87.6%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.2%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.07

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.4%	58.0%	62.4%	0.93×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.6%	42.0%	37.6%	1.12×	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.5%	51.4%	52.3%	0.98×	1.95
Real Sociedad to score 2+ in a row	31.1%	29.0%	23.6%	1.23×	3.44
Malaga to score 2+ in a row	28.3%	25.1%	34.3%	0.73×	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.9%	16.3%	18.9%	0.87×	6.13
Real Sociedad to score 3+ in a row	9.8%	5.7%	6.4%	0.90×	17.54
Malaga to score 3+ in a row	8.4%	5.7%	13.0%	0.44×	17.66

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad corners (+3.5)	85.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Malaga corners (+3.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Real Sociedad corners (+2.5)	78.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Malaga corners (+2.5)	71.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Real Sociedad corners (+1.5)	70.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Malaga corners (+1.5)	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Real Sociedad corners (-1.5)	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Malaga corners (-1.5)	29.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Real Sociedad corners (-2.5)	29.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Malaga corners (-2.5)	21.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Real Sociedad corners (-3.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Malaga corners (-3.5)	14.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	37.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	27.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.5%	11.4%	15.1%	0.76×	8.74
0-1	9.8%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
1-0	9.2%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.50
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.50
0-0	7.2%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.50
0-2	6.6%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.50
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.50
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.50
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.4%	1.70×	13.50
0-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.97×	58.31
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.30
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.31
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2nd half DNB)	51.7%	53.1%	41.3%	1.29×	1.89
Malaga (2nd half DNB)	48.3%	46.9%	58.7%	0.80×	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad leading at HT (DNB)	52.3%	56.0%	37.7%	1.48×	1.79
Malaga leading at HT (DNB)	47.7%	44.0%	62.3%	0.71×	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga or Real Sociedad (12)	73.8%	72.2%	74.8%	0.96×	1.39
Real Sociedad or draw (X2)	64.9%	63.7%	53.2%	1.20×	1.57
Malaga or draw (1X)	61.3%	63.7%	71.9%	0.89×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw at HT	70.6%	74.2%	64.5%	1.15×	1.35
Malaga or draw at HT	67.7%	66.3%	78.5%	0.84×	1.51
Malaga or Real Sociedad at HT	61.7%	62.0%	56.8%	1.09×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw (1UP)	64.9%	71.9%	60.1%	1.20×	1.39
Malaga or draw (1UP)	61.3%	71.7%	78.2%	0.92×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw in 2nd half	71.7%	73.6%	60.5%	1.22×	1.36
Malaga or draw in 2nd half	69.7%	65.6%	72.3%	0.91×	1.53
Malaga or Real Sociedad in 2nd half	58.6%	59.0%	67.0%	0.88×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.8%	61.7%	62.2%	0.99×	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.2%	38.3%	37.8%	1.01×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (DNB)	52.5%	50.9%	37.5%	1.36×	1.97
Malaga (DNB)	47.5%	49.1%	62.5%	0.79×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score first	47.8%	45.6%	39.6%	1.15×	2.19
Malaga to score first	45.0%	45.4%	55.4%	0.82×	2.20
No goal scored	7.2%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.5%	51.4%	55.3%	0.93×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.5%	48.6%	44.7%	1.09×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.0%	41.6%	40.3%	1.03×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	38.6%	38.5%	35.4%	1.09×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	12.3%	15.1%	0.82×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.7%	85.6%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.3%	14.4%	13.8%	1.04×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.9%	75.4%	71.4%	1.06×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.1%	24.6%	28.6%	0.86×	4.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.9%	59.4%	60.3%	0.99×	1.68
Both score 1st half only	20.0%	15.8%	11.2%	1.41×	6.33
Both score 2nd half only	15.8%	15.6%	23.1%	0.67×	6.42
Both score in both halves	5.3%	6.7%	5.6%	1.20×	14.88

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.7%	80.1%	83.3%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.3%	19.9%	16.7%	1.19×	5.02

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.3%	53.4%	54.8%	0.97×	1.87
A half without a goal	46.7%	46.6%	45.2%	1.03×	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.3%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.2%	26.6%	24.8%	1.07×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.3%	26.6%	23.4%	1.13×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.82×	54.71

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score exactly 1	35.0%	33.8%	38.0%	0.89×	2.96
Real Sociedad to score exactly 0	25.8%	27.4%	30.3%	0.90×	3.65
Real Sociedad to score exactly 2	23.7%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.47
Real Sociedad to score 3+	15.6%	19.6%	10.0%	1.97×	5.10

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.6%	38.4%	0.93×	2.81
Malaga to score exactly 0	27.9%	26.5%	19.6%	1.36×	3.77
Malaga to score exactly 2	22.7%	23.2%	22.7%	1.02×	4.31
Malaga to score 3+	13.7%	14.4%	19.7%	0.73×	6.94

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.3%	38.0%	43.2%	0.88×	2.63
Real Sociedad leading at HT	32.3%	33.7%	21.5%	1.57×	2.97
Malaga leading at HT	29.4%	25.8%	35.5%	0.73×	3.88

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad -1: 1	61.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Real Sociedad -1: X	21.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Real Sociedad -1: 2	17.7%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:1)	64.9%	61.6%	53.2%	1.16×	1.62
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	17.8%	26.2%	0.68×	5.62
Malaga (0:1)	15.3%	17.8%	20.8%	0.85×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:2)	84.7%	82.9%	79.2%	1.05×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.1%	10.9%	11.0%	0.99×	9.18
Malaga (0:2)	5.2%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:3)	94.8%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.8%	2.4%	7.1%	0.33×	42.06
Malaga (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	83.62
Malaga (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.7%	1.60×	83.71

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (1:0)	61.3%	65.1%	71.9%	0.91×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	21.0%	21.8%	17.7%	1.23×	4.58
Real Sociedad (1:0)	17.7%	17.0%	10.6%	1.61×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (2:0)	82.3%	84.5%	89.4%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.3%	10.4%	6.8%	1.52×	9.63
Real Sociedad (2:0)	6.4%	6.4%	3.9%	1.67×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	40.9%	47.8%	26.3%	1.82×	2.09
2nd half highest scoring	33.0%	30.0%	51.3%	0.58×	3.33
Halves equal	26.1%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to concede	74.2%	73.1%	69.7%	1.05×	1.37
Malaga clean sheet	25.8%	26.9%	30.3%	0.89×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to concede in 1st half	51.5%	55.7%	36.6%	1.52×	1.80
Malaga clean sheet in 1st half	48.5%	44.3%	63.4%	0.70×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga clean sheet in 2nd half	53.2%	53.4%	48.3%	1.11×	1.87
Malaga to concede in 2nd half	46.8%	46.6%	51.7%	0.90×	2.15

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga over 2.5 corners	79.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Malaga under 6.5 corners	76.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Malaga under 5.5 corners	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Malaga over 3.5 corners	64.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Malaga under 4.5 corners	51.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Malaga over 4.5 corners	49.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Malaga under 3.5 corners	35.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Malaga over 5.5 corners	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Malaga over 6.5 corners	23.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Malaga under 2.5 corners	20.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 3.5 goals	95.9%	96.3%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Malaga under 2.5 goals	86.3%	87.2%	80.3%	1.09×	1.15
Malaga over 0.5 goals	72.1%	74.2%	80.4%	0.92×	1.35
Malaga under 1.5 goals	63.5%	63.5%	57.8%	1.10×	1.57
Malaga over 1.5 goals	36.5%	36.5%	42.2%	0.86×	2.74
Malaga under 0.5 goals	27.9%	25.8%	19.6%	1.32×	3.88
Malaga over 2.5 goals	13.7%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.81
Malaga over 3.5 goals	4.1%	3.7%	7.3%	0.50×	27.27

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 1.5 in 1st half	85.2%	89.7%	86.0%	1.04×	1.12
Malaga over 0.5 in 1st half	49.1%	50.9%	48.1%	1.06×	1.96
Malaga under 0.5 in 1st half	50.9%	49.1%	51.9%	0.94×	2.04
Malaga over 1.5 in 1st half	14.8%	10.3%	14.0%	0.74×	9.68

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga scores equally in both	40.4%	42.4%	32.5%	1.30×	2.36
Malaga scores more in 1st half	32.2%	32.8%	27.7%	1.18×	3.05
Malaga scores more in 2nd half	27.4%	28.0%	40.0%	0.70×	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (home no bet)	59.7%	56.7%	52.8%	1.07×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	40.3%	43.3%	47.2%	0.92×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga even goals	53.9%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Malaga odd goals	46.1%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.7%	24.2%	32.1%	0.75×	4.13
HT 0-1	17.9%	18.7%	16.2%	1.15×	5.36
HT 1-0	16.7%	18.6%	22.7%	0.82×	5.37
HT 1-1	12.1%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.16
Any other HT score	6.7%	7.1%	4.5%	1.59×	14.03
HT 0-2	6.5%	7.1%	3.1%	2.28×	14.04
HT 2-0	5.6%	7.1%	6.2%	1.14×	14.05
HT 1-2	4.4%	2.3%	1.5%	1.54×	43.38
HT 2-1	4.1%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.40
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.3%	1.2%	1.84×	43.60

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	25.3%	26.9%	12.9%	2.09×	3.72
Malaga at HT / Malaga at FT	22.5%	21.7%	26.5%	0.82×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.8%	16.7%	14.0%	1.20×	5.98
Draw at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	11.6%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.90
Draw at HT / Malaga at FT	10.9%	12.6%	18.0%	0.70×	7.91
Real Sociedad at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	6.1%	0.98×	16.73
Malaga at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	5.2%	1.14×	16.73
Malaga at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	1.8%	3.5%	4.0%	0.87×	28.85
Real Sociedad at HT / Malaga at FT	1.8%	3.5%	2.7%	1.26×	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score last	47.8%	46.8%	39.3%	1.19×	2.14
Malaga to score last	45.0%	46.6%	55.7%	0.84×	2.15
No goal scored	7.2%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.34

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.8%	92.6%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Real Sociedad to lead by 1 at any time	55.0%	50.9%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Malaga to lead by 1 at any time	51.8%	50.8%	63.2%	0.80×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.4%	39.3%	41.6%	0.95×	2.55
Real Sociedad to lead by 2 at any time	23.6%	19.6%	15.5%	1.27×	5.10
Malaga to lead by 2 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	26.5%	0.74×	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.9%	10.5%	16.7%	0.63×	9.51
Real Sociedad to lead by 3 at any time	8.1%	6.6%	4.6%	1.44×	15.07
Malaga to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.6%	12.2%	0.54×	15.13

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad most corners	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Malaga most corners	39.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	81.2%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	72.0%	72.4%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.7%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.7%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.4%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.1%	48.6%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.6%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
1-2 goals	43.9%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.30
3-5 goals	43.8%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.2%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.3%	30.3%	23.4%	1.29×	3.31
4-5 goals	21.9%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.08
5-6 goals	10.9%	14.8%	11.7%	1.27×	6.74
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	2.2%	1.14×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad never behind	41.0%	48.2%	36.8%	1.31×	2.08
Malaga never behind	37.8%	44.6%	52.9%	0.84×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.7%	53.6%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.3%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	52.1%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	47.9%	50.3%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.9%	92.2%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.8%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.3%	87.6%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.9%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.1%	52.6%	50.3%	1.04×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	48.9%	47.4%	49.7%	0.95×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.1%	27.5%	25.5%	1.08×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.7%	12.4%	13.8%	0.90×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.2%	7.8%	5.1%	1.52×	12.87
Over 5.5 goals	5.1%	7.8%	5.9%	1.33×	12.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.5%	92.4%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.2%	86.7%	84.3%	1.03×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.4%	67.4%	66.3%	1.02×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.2%	67.4%	66.7%	1.01×	1.48
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.8%	32.6%	33.3%	0.98×	3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.6%	32.6%	33.7%	0.97×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.8%	13.3%	15.7%	0.85×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.5%	7.6%	6.4%	1.19×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	2.3%	1.20×	35.87

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.3%	86.3%	89.9%	0.96×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.3%	78.7%	67.9%	1.16×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.2%	62.8%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.8%	37.2%	29.2%	1.27×	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.7%	21.3%	32.1%	0.66×	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.7%	13.7%	10.1%	1.36×	7.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	85.4%	79.7%	1.07×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	77.6%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	67.4%	53.7%	1.25×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	32.6%	46.3%	0.70×	3.06
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	22.4%	18.2%	1.23×	4.46
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	14.6%	20.4%	0.72×	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to score in both halves	77.8%	78.3%	73.7%	1.06×	1.28
Real Sociedad not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.2%	81.4%	0.96×	1.28
Real Sociedad to score in both halves	24.1%	21.8%	18.6%	1.17×	4.58
Malaga to score in both halves	22.2%	21.7%	26.3%	0.83×	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.5%	53.9%	55.3%	0.98×	1.86
Only Real Sociedad scores	20.7%	22.3%	14.6%	1.53×	4.49
Only Malaga scores	18.6%	16.0%	25.3%	0.63×	6.23
Neither team scores	7.2%	7.2%	5.1%	1.41×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.9%	22.6%	25.7%	0.88×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.0%	17.4%	19.8%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	11.8%	1.02×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.2%	7.6%	5.1%	1.50×	13.08
6 or more goals	5.1%	7.6%	5.9%	1.31×	13.09

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.5%	35.9%	38.8%	0.93×	2.78
No goals in 1st half	24.7%	21.7%	32.1%	0.68×	4.60
2 goals in 1st half	24.2%	21.7%	19.2%	1.13×	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	16.7%	15.2%	10.1%	1.51×	6.57

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.9%	39.9%	35.6%	1.12×	2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.8%	33.4%	46.3%	0.72×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	29.2%	29.8%	18.2%	1.64×	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win both halves	91.7%	93.9%	88.1%	1.07×	1.06
Real Sociedad not to win both halves	90.2%	93.9%	94.6%	0.99×	1.07
Real Sociedad to win both halves	9.8%	6.1%	5.4%	1.13×	16.42
Malaga to win both halves	8.3%	6.1%	11.9%	0.51×	16.53

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win either half	52.8%	55.0%	43.8%	1.25×	1.82
Malaga to win neither half	50.6%	54.9%	37.0%	1.49×	1.82
Malaga to win either half	49.4%	45.1%	63.0%	0.72×	2.22
Real Sociedad to win neither half	47.2%	45.0%	56.2%	0.80×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win to nil	81.4%	83.1%	74.7%	1.11×	1.20
Real Sociedad not to win to nil	79.3%	78.1%	85.4%	0.91×	1.28
Real Sociedad to win to nil	20.7%	21.9%	14.6%	1.50×	4.57
Malaga to win to nil	18.6%	16.9%	25.3%	0.67×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.2%	27.9%	25.2%	1.11×	3.59
Real Sociedad by 1	21.0%	24.2%	17.7%	1.37×	4.14
Malaga by 1	19.8%	16.9%	26.2%	0.65×	5.90
Real Sociedad by 2	11.3%	11.8%	6.8%	1.72×	8.50
Malaga by 2	10.1%	11.8%	11.0%	1.07×	8.50
Real Sociedad by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	3.9%	1.88×	13.81
Malaga by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	10.0%	0.73×	13.82