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Mallorca v Córdoba — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Mallorca win
55.6%
model 56.8%
Draw
22.2%
model 22.3%
Córdoba win
22.2%
model 20.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 11.0%
  2. 1-1 10.6%
  3. 2-1 9.9%
  4. 2-0 9.8%
  5. 0-1 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.553.9% Under 2.546.1%
BTTS yes53.1% BTTS no46.9%
Mallorca 1+83.9% Mallorca 2+54.5%
Córdoba 1+63.6% Córdoba 2+26.8%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
53/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Mallorca (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 46%
57.0% fair odds 1.75
strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Mallorca not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Mallorca carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1455.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Mallorca have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.2% for Córdoba. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for Mallorca and 1.01 for Córdoba.

Why Mallorca

Mallorca carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1455. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Córdoba can win

Nothing in the data singles out Córdoba.

Key players

Mallorca's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Vedat Muriqi (0.59), Zito (0.22), Sergi Darder (0.19).

Availability

1 of Mallorca's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Córdoba, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mallorca: 58% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Córdoba: 57% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Mallorca are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.0%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDLWDLLW last 10 scored 14 from 14.8 xG conceded 12 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.83–1.01 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.92–0.95 1-0 11% 55% 52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to win 60.3% 58.1% 45.5% 1.28× 1.72
Draw 21.4% 24.5% 26.5% 0.92× 4.09
Córdoba to win 18.4% 19.4% 28.1% 0.69× 5.16
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca & not both score 33.3% 29.6% 23.6% 1.26× 3.38
Mallorca & both teams score 27.0% 25.2% 22.0% 1.14× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 15.9% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.57
Córdoba & not both score 9.3% 8.3% 13.4% 0.62× 12.00
Córdoba & both teams score 9.1% 8.3% 14.8% 0.56× 12.00
Draw & not both score 5.5% 8.3% 9.1% 0.91× 12.02
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca & over 1.5 49.1% 45.1% 32.6% 1.38× 2.22
Mallorca & over 2.5 38.6% 34.9% 26.3% 1.33× 2.87
Mallorca & under 3.5 38.3% 34.9% 32.2% 1.08× 2.87
Mallorca & over 3.5 22.0% 21.6% 13.4% 1.61× 4.63
Mallorca & under 2.5 21.7% 21.6% 19.3% 1.12× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 15.9% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 20.2% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.6% 18.0% 20.2% 0.89× 5.56
Córdoba & under 3.5 13.9% 12.8% 19.6% 0.66× 7.79
Córdoba & over 1.5 12.7% 12.8% 19.5% 0.66× 7.79
Mallorca & under 1.5 11.2% 12.8% 13.0% 0.99× 7.79
Córdoba & over 2.5 10.2% 12.8% 16.7% 0.77× 7.79
Córdoba & under 2.5 8.2% 7.9% 11.5% 0.69× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.5% 7.9% 9.1% 0.87× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.63
Córdoba & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Córdoba & over 3.5 4.4% 4.8% 8.6% 0.56× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (1UP) 72.5% 75.2% — — 1.33
Córdoba (1UP) 35.9% 33.9% — — 2.95
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (2UP) 60.3% 68.1% — — 1.47
Córdoba (2UP) 18.4% 17.2% — — 5.81
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to win 2nd half 48.3% 45.7% — — 2.19
2nd half drawn 32.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
Córdoba to win 2nd half 19.1% 18.0% — — 5.54
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba under 1.5 in 2nd half 88.8% 86.9% — — 1.15
Córdoba under 0.5 in 2nd half 56.7% 54.3% — — 1.84
Córdoba over 0.5 in 2nd half 43.3% 45.7% — — 2.19
Córdoba over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.2% 13.1% — — 7.63
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 1.5 in 2nd half 70.2% 74.2% — — 1.35
Mallorca over 0.5 in 2nd half 66.4% 70.7% — — 1.41
Mallorca under 0.5 in 2nd half 33.6% 29.3% — — 3.41
Mallorca over 1.5 in 2nd half 29.8% 25.8% — — 3.88
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (+2.5) 82.8% 82.6% 92.3% 0.89× 1.21
Mallorca (+0.5) 81.6% 82.5% 71.9% 1.15× 1.21
Córdoba (+1.5) 64.3% 63.0% 80.4% 0.78× 1.59
Mallorca (-0.5) 60.3% 62.9% 45.5% 1.38× 1.59
Córdoba (+0.5) 39.7% 37.1% 54.5% 0.68× 2.70
Mallorca (-1.5) 35.7% 37.0% 19.6% 1.89× 2.70
Córdoba (-0.5) 18.4% 17.5% 28.1% 0.62× 5.73
Mallorca (-2.5) 17.2% 17.4% 7.7% 2.28× 5.73
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to concede 85.3% 86.2% 77.6% 1.11× 1.16
Córdoba clean sheet 14.7% 13.8% 22.4% 0.61× 7.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to concede in 1st half 56.1% 57.0% — — 1.76
Córdoba clean sheet in 1st half 43.9% 43.0% — — 2.32
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to concede in 2nd half 66.4% 65.7% — — 1.52
Córdoba clean sheet in 2nd half 33.6% 34.3% — — 2.92
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba over 2.5 corners 91.5% 89.9% — — 1.11
Córdoba over 3.5 corners 82.7% 81.4% — — 1.23
Córdoba over 4.5 corners 71.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Córdoba over 5.5 corners 58.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Córdoba under 6.5 corners 54.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Córdoba over 6.5 corners 45.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Córdoba under 5.5 corners 41.9% 42.8% — — 2.33
Córdoba under 4.5 corners 28.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Córdoba under 3.5 corners 17.3% 18.6% — — 5.38
Córdoba under 2.5 corners 8.5% 10.1% — — 9.88
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba under 3.5 goals 98.4% 97.5% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Córdoba under 2.5 goals 92.9% 92.3% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Córdoba under 1.5 goals 75.5% 76.2% 69.4% 1.10× 1.31
Córdoba over 0.5 goals 61.2% 63.2% 67.4% 0.94× 1.58
Córdoba under 0.5 goals 38.8% 36.8% 32.6% 1.13× 2.72
Córdoba over 1.5 goals 24.5% 23.8% 30.6% 0.78× 4.21
Córdoba over 2.5 goals 7.1% 7.7% 10.9% 0.70× 13.06
Córdoba over 3.5 goals 1.6% 2.5% 3.0% 0.82× 39.98
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba under 1.5 in 1st half 94.4% 93.9% — — 1.07
Córdoba under 0.5 in 1st half 68.5% 70.0% — — 1.43
Córdoba over 0.5 in 1st half 31.5% 30.0% — — 3.34
Córdoba over 1.5 in 1st half 5.6% 6.1% — — 16.31
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba scores equally in both 47.6% 48.2% — — 2.08
Córdoba scores more in 2nd half 32.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
Córdoba scores more in 1st half 19.7% 18.2% — — 5.48
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (away no bet) 73.8% 68.4% 63.2% 1.08× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 26.2% 31.6% 36.8% 0.86× 3.17
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba even goals 57.5% 56.9% 54.6% 1.04× 1.76
Córdoba odd goals 42.5% 43.1% 45.4% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.3% 82.8% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.7% 17.2% — — 5.83
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.4% 68.3% — — 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.6% 31.7% — — 3.16
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.5% 59.9% — — 1.67
Mallorca to score 2+ in a row 49.6% 46.3% — — 2.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.3% 25.0% — — 4.00
Mallorca to score 3+ in a row 22.1% 19.6% — — 5.10
Córdoba to score 2+ in a row 16.6% 16.2% — — 6.18
Córdoba to score 3+ in a row 3.4% 2.6% — — 38.73
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba corners (+3.5) 94.5% 89.6% — — 1.12
Córdoba corners (+2.5) 90.8% 89.6% — — 1.12
Córdoba corners (+1.5) 85.4% 84.5% — — 1.18
Mallorca corners (+3.5) 61.6% 61.8% — — 1.62
Córdoba corners (-1.5) 59.3% 57.1% — — 1.75
Mallorca corners (+2.5) 51.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
Córdoba corners (-2.5) 48.7% 47.6% — — 2.10
Mallorca corners (+1.5) 40.7% 42.9% — — 2.33
Córdoba corners (-3.5) 38.4% 38.2% — — 2.62
Mallorca corners (-1.5) 14.6% 15.5% — — 6.44
Mallorca corners (-2.5) 9.2% 10.4% — — 9.59
Mallorca corners (-3.5) 5.5% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 36.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 33.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 30.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 76.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 72.0% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 66.7% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 11.5 corners 63.5% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 56.4% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 53.8% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 46.2% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 9.5 corners 43.6% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 36.5% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 33.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 28.0% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 23.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 11.2% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.72
1-1 10.1% 11.5% 11.2% 1.02× 8.72
2-0 10.5% 11.5% 6.4% 1.79× 8.72
2-1 9.9% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.51
3-0 6.7% 7.4% 3.0% 2.43× 13.51
0-0 5.5% 7.4% 9.1% 0.81× 13.51
0-1 5.6% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
3-1 6.3% 7.4% 4.6% 1.60× 13.51
1-2 4.9% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.29
Any other score 4.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.29
0-2 2.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.30
0-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.31
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-3 1.5% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.31
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.04× 58.32
2-2 4.7% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.29
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.30
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 8.18× 58.32
4-0 3.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.49× 58.30
4-1 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.30
4-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.49× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 5.45× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.18× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (2nd half DNB) 71.6% 71.0% — — 1.41
Córdoba (2nd half DNB) 28.4% 29.0% — — 3.45
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca leading at HT (DNB) 73.3% 74.2% — — 1.35
Córdoba leading at HT (DNB) 26.7% 25.8% — — 3.88
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw (1X) 81.6% 80.6% 71.9% 1.12× 1.24
Mallorca or Córdoba (12) 78.6% 75.5% 73.5% 1.03× 1.32
Córdoba or draw (X2) 39.7% 41.9% 54.5% 0.77× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw at HT 84.0% 84.0% — — 1.19
Mallorca or Córdoba at HT 59.9% 57.7% — — 1.73
Córdoba or draw at HT 56.1% 57.6% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw (1UP) 81.6% 88.6% — — 1.13
Córdoba or draw (1UP) 39.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw in 2nd half 80.9% 82.0% — — 1.22
Mallorca or Córdoba in 2nd half 67.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
Córdoba or draw in 2nd half 51.7% 54.3% — — 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.9% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 40.1% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (DNB) 76.6% 74.7% 61.8% 1.21× 1.34
Córdoba (DNB) 23.4% 25.3% 38.2% 0.66× 3.96
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to score first 63.3% 64.1% — — 1.56
Córdoba to score first 31.3% 27.6% — — 3.62
No goal scored 5.5% 7.4% — — 13.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.0% 51.3% 54.1% 0.95× 1.95
Not both teams to score 48.0% 48.7% 45.9% 1.06× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.8% 41.6% 43.0% 0.97× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 35.3% 38.4% 39.7% 0.97× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 12.7% 12.4% 6.3% 1.97× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 10.1% 12.4% 11.2% 1.10× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.0% 85.6% 85.6% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.0% 14.4% 14.4% 1.00× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.3% 73.6% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.7% 26.4% — — 3.79
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.7% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.6% 21.0% — — 4.76
Both score 1st half only 12.6% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 5.1% 6.8% — — 14.78
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.3% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.7% 16.9% — — 5.92
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.5% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 43.5% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.5% 47.2% 41.3% 1.14× 2.12
4-6 goals 29.5% 26.6% 26.7% 1.00× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.3% 22.9% 30.6% 0.75× 4.37
7+ goals 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.17× 54.26
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to score exactly 0 38.8% 35.9% 32.6% 1.10× 2.78
Córdoba to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 36.9% 0.97× 2.78
Córdoba to score exactly 2 17.4% 19.6% 19.8% 0.99× 5.11
Córdoba to score 3+ 7.1% 8.5% 10.9% 0.78× 11.70
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to score 3+ 30.0% 32.6% 17.2% 1.89× 3.07
Mallorca to score exactly 1 28.2% 26.6% 35.6% 0.75× 3.77
Mallorca to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 24.9% 1.06× 3.77
Mallorca to score exactly 0 14.7% 14.3% 22.4% 0.64× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca leading at HT 43.9% 42.4% — — 2.36
Draw at HT 40.1% 42.3% — — 2.37
Córdoba leading at HT 16.0% 16.0% — — 6.27
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca -1: 2 39.7% 37.4% — — 2.67
Mallorca -1: 1 35.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
Mallorca -1: X 24.6% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:1) 39.7% 37.4% 54.5% 0.69× 2.68
Mallorca (0:1) 35.7% 37.3% 19.6% 1.90× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 24.6% 24.2% 26.0% 0.93× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:2) 64.3% 67.2% 80.4% 0.84× 1.49
Draw (0:2) 18.4% 15.3% 12.1% 1.27× 6.55
Mallorca (0:2) 17.2% 15.3% 7.7% 1.99× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:3) 82.8% 85.4% 92.3% 0.92× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 10.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.85× 10.11
Mallorca (0:3) 6.9% 5.8% 2.4% 2.41× 17.24
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:4) 93.1% 94.5% 97.6% 0.97× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.6% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 81.66
Mallorca (0:4) 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.91× 81.91
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (1:0) 81.6% 81.4% 71.9% 1.13× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 12.3% 12.7% 17.9% 0.71× 7.87
Córdoba (1:0) 6.1% 6.9% 10.3% 0.67× 14.50
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (2:0) 93.9% 94.0% 89.7% 1.05× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.5% 2.3% 7.1% 0.32× 43.61
Córdoba (2:0) 1.6% 2.3% 3.2% 0.70× 43.79
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.3% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.9% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to concede 61.2% 63.6% 67.4% 0.94× 1.57
Mallorca clean sheet 38.8% 36.4% 32.6% 1.12× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca clean sheet in 1st half 68.5% 70.4% — — 1.42
Mallorca to concede in 1st half 31.5% 29.6% — — 3.37
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca clean sheet in 2nd half 56.7% 54.6% — — 1.83
Mallorca to concede in 2nd half 43.3% 45.4% — — 2.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 6.5 corners 86.3% 86.2% — — 1.16
Mallorca under 5.5 corners 76.9% 76.5% — — 1.31
Mallorca over 2.5 corners 71.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Mallorca under 4.5 corners 63.6% 62.3% — — 1.61
Mallorca over 3.5 corners 53.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Mallorca under 3.5 corners 46.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Mallorca over 4.5 corners 36.4% 37.7% — — 2.65
Mallorca under 2.5 corners 28.7% 28.1% — — 3.55
Mallorca over 5.5 corners 23.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Mallorca over 6.5 corners 13.7% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 3.5 goals 87.2% 87.3% 93.7% 0.93× 1.15
Mallorca over 0.5 goals 85.3% 87.2% 77.6% 1.12× 1.15
Mallorca under 2.5 goals 70.0% 68.0% 82.8% 0.82× 1.47
Mallorca over 1.5 goals 57.1% 58.6% 42.0% 1.39× 1.71
Mallorca under 1.5 goals 42.9% 41.4% 58.0% 0.71× 2.42
Mallorca over 2.5 goals 30.0% 32.0% 17.2% 1.86× 3.12
Mallorca under 0.5 goals 14.7% 12.8% 22.4% 0.57× 7.84
Mallorca over 3.5 goals 12.8% 12.7% 6.3% 2.03× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 1.5 in 1st half 80.0% 83.6% — — 1.20
Mallorca over 0.5 in 1st half 56.1% 56.8% — — 1.76
Mallorca under 0.5 in 1st half 43.9% 43.2% — — 2.32
Mallorca over 1.5 in 1st half 20.0% 16.4% — — 6.11
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca scores more in 2nd half 41.5% 42.0% — — 2.38
Mallorca scores equally in both 31.3% 33.2% — — 3.02
Mallorca scores more in 1st half 27.3% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 53.8% 51.4% 48.6% 1.06× 1.95
Córdoba (home no bet) 46.2% 48.6% 51.4% 0.94× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca even goals 51.1% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Mallorca odd goals 48.9% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.0% 28.5% — — 3.50
HT 1-0 24.8% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 11.4% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 10.2% 11.0% — — 9.13
HT 1-1 9.3% 6.9% — — 14.43
Any other HT score 5.7% 6.9% — — 14.49
HT 2-1 3.9% 2.4% — — 41.96
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.07
HT 1-2 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca at HT / Mallorca at FT 37.9% 41.0% — — 2.44
Draw at HT / Mallorca at FT 19.5% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.8% 12.6% — — 7.91
Córdoba at HT / Córdoba at FT 9.2% 6.1% — — 16.39
Draw at HT / Córdoba at FT 7.8% 6.1% — — 16.42
Mallorca at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.80
Córdoba at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.82
Córdoba at HT / Mallorca at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.87
Mallorca at HT / Córdoba at FT 1.4% 3.5% — — 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to score last 63.2% 62.3% — — 1.61
Córdoba to score last 31.3% 32.3% — — 3.09
No goal scored 5.5% 7.4% — — 13.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.5% 92.7% — — 1.08
Mallorca to lead by 1 at any time 72.5% 74.0% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.2% 50.8% — — 1.97
Mallorca to lead by 2 at any time 42.1% 39.2% — — 2.55
Córdoba to lead by 1 at any time 35.9% 34.6% — — 2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.4% 19.6% — — 5.11
Mallorca to lead by 3 at any time 19.9% 14.9% — — 6.70
Córdoba to lead by 2 at any time 10.3% 10.5% — — 9.55
Córdoba to lead by 3 at any time 2.4% 1.6% — — 62.60
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba most corners 69.4% 64.5% — — 1.55
Mallorca most corners 21.8% 25.9% — — 3.87
Corners level 8.9% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.5% 87.4% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.3% 78.7% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.0% 78.7% 67.9% 1.16× 1.27
2-5 goals 70.6% 72.3% 64.4% 1.12× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.3% 63.3% 62.8% 1.01× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.5% 63.3% 56.6% 1.12× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.8% 53.2% 47.7% 1.11× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.5% 48.5% 44.1% 1.10× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.5% 48.5% 41.3% 1.17× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.0% 39.2% 41.8% 0.94× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.3% 39.2% 36.4% 1.08× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.5% 30.2% 26.7% 1.13× 3.31
4-5 goals 25.1% 30.2% 23.2% 1.30× 3.31
5-6 goals 13.5% 14.8% 11.4% 1.30× 6.75
7+ goals 2.7% 2.6% 1.6% 1.63× 39.13
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca never behind 58.6% 62.6% — — 1.60
Córdoba never behind 22.1% 25.0% — — 4.01
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.9% 48.5% 1.05× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.1% 51.5% 0.95× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.4% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.6% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.6% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.4% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.9% 92.3% 94.9% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.8% 82.3% 87.1% 0.95× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.7% 77.3% 69.4% 1.11× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 67.8% 66.3% 71.8% 0.92× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 54.5% 52.6% 49.2% 1.07× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 45.5% 47.4% 50.8% 0.93× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 32.2% 33.7% 28.2% 1.19× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.3% 22.7% 30.6% 0.74× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 16.2% 17.7% 12.9% 1.37× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 7.1% 7.7% 5.1% 1.50× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.2% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.2% 92.4% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.7% 81.1% 84.8% 0.96× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 71.0% 72.4% 61.6% 1.17× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.5% 55.8% 64.3% 0.87× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.5% 44.2% 35.7% 1.24× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.0% 27.6% 38.4% 0.72× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.3% 18.9% 15.2% 1.24× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.8% 7.6% 5.6% 1.36× 13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.8% 2.8% 1.6% 1.72× 35.59
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.9% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.0% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.2% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.8% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.0% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.1% 11.0% — — 9.12
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.1% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.8% 79.7% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 50.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.2% 20.3% — — 4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.9% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba not to score in both halves 86.3% 85.5% — — 1.17
Mallorca not to score in both halves 62.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Mallorca to score in both halves 37.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Córdoba to score in both halves 13.7% 14.5% — — 6.88
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.0% 53.8% 54.1% 1.00× 1.86
Only Mallorca scores 33.3% 33.3% 23.6% 1.41× 3.00
Only Córdoba scores 9.3% 7.1% 13.4% 0.53× 14.01
Neither team scores 5.5% 7.1% 9.1% 0.78× 14.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.2% 22.6% 20.3% 1.11× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.8% 17.5% 21.6% 0.81× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 16.0% 17.5% 15.4% 1.13× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.2% 7.6% 7.9% 0.97× 13.14
6 or more goals 7.1% 7.6% 5.1% 1.48× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.5% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 30.0% 28.6% — — 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 21.7% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.1% 10.9% — — 9.20
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.7% 33.7% — — 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 18.9% 16.7% — — 5.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba not to win both halves 97.0% 97.2% — — 1.03
Mallorca not to win both halves 78.9% 75.5% — — 1.33
Mallorca to win both halves 21.1% 24.5% — — 4.08
Córdoba to win both halves 3.0% 2.8% — — 35.75
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to win either half 71.0% 72.8% — — 1.37
Córdoba to win neither half 67.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Córdoba to win either half 32.1% 32.3% — — 3.10
Mallorca to win neither half 29.0% 27.2% — — 3.68
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba not to win to nil 90.7% 92.1% 86.6% 1.06× 1.09
Mallorca not to win to nil 66.7% 69.6% 76.4% 0.91× 1.44
Mallorca to win to nil 33.3% 30.4% 23.6% 1.29× 3.29
Córdoba to win to nil 9.3% 7.9% 13.4% 0.59× 12.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca by 1 24.6% 24.1% 26.0% 0.93× 4.15
Draw 21.4% 24.1% 26.5% 0.91× 4.15
Mallorca by 2 18.4% 17.1% 12.1% 1.41× 5.87
Mallorca by 3+ 17.2% 17.0% 7.7% 2.23× 5.87
Córdoba by 1 12.3% 11.8% 17.9% 0.66× 8.51
Córdoba by 2 4.5% 2.7% 7.1% 0.38× 36.79
Córdoba by 3+ 1.6% 2.7% 3.2% 0.83× 36.88
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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