Mallorca v Las Palmas — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 12.3%
- 1-1 12.2%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 0-1 9.0%
- 2-0 8.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | Under 2.5 | 54.6% |
| BTTS yes | 49.3% | BTTS no | 50.7% |
| Mallorca 1+ | 76.4% | Mallorca 2+ | 42.3% |
| Las Palmas 1+ | 64.9% | Las Palmas 2+ | 28.2% |
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Las Palmas were missing 1.08 expected goal involvements a match against 0.48.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Mallorca have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for Las Palmas and 26.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for Mallorca and 1.05 for Las Palmas.
Why Mallorca
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Las Palmas were missing 1.08 expected goal involvements a match against 0.48.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Las Palmas can win
Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1573 Elo against 1485. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Mallorca's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Vedat Muriqi (0.60), Zito (0.22), Sergi Darder (0.20). Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.42), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21).
Availability
1 of Mallorca's top three contributors did not start their last match. 3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Mallorca: 58% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Mallorca are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.3%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.36–0.93 | 1-0 14% | 40% | 45% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.