Mallorca v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.13 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+0.38 – -1.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
41.9%
Draw
29.4%
Rayo Vallecano win
28.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.36 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 2.62 xGRayo Vallecano 1.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 Mallorca |
Manuel Morlanes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 23' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Maffeo | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 35' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 35' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.59 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Samú Costa |
| 38' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 39' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Zito |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Maffeo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 45' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Randy Nteka |
| 51' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Zito |
| 56' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 57' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 63' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 64' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.40 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Torre |
| 68' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Randy Nteka |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 79' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 81' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 82' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 89' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 92' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 93' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 94' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Díaz |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.72 |
| Sergi Darder MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| Omar Mascarell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Morlanes MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Pablo Torre AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 1.40 |
| Samú Costa MC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.59 | 0.10 |
| Zito FW | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Jan Virgili Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marash Kumbulla Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Espino DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 1.06 |
| Pedro Díaz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Gerard Gumbau MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Daniel Cárdenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Randy Nteka FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Álvaro García FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 1.21 |
| Ilias Akhomach FWR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Óscar Valentín MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Jorge De Frutos Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Pathé Ciss Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.05 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| Alemão Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |