Mallorca v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 21 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.26 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
45.2%
Draw
25.8%
Valencia win
29.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Valencia have scored 13 from 13.5 expected and conceded 13 from 13.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLWDWWDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.5 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 2.26 xGValencia 1.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 12' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 13' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 19' |
 Valencia |
Renzo Saravia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Guido Rodríguez |
| 20' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Renzo Saravia |
| 25' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Valjent |
| 36' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 40' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 48' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Goal | Sergi Darder |
| 51' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.39 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samú Costa |
| 60' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 62' |
Mallorca |
Manuel Morlanes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 65' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 66' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | Javier Guerra |
| 68' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 69' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 73' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Umar Sadiq |
| 77' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 80' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 90' |
Mallorca |
David López | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 90' |
Mallorca |
Javi Llabrés | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 94' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largie Ramazani ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Umar Sadiq FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.08 | 1.12 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.84 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Pepelu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Renzo Saravia Sub | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego López MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| Luis Rioja Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Javier Guerra Sub | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1.20 |
| Thierry Correia DR | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samú Costa MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Sergi Darder MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.39 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Pablo Torre AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.45 |
| Manuel Morlanes MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| Omar Mascarell DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Takuma Asano FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jan Virgili Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| David López Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Javi Llabrés Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |