Mallorca v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 7
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.79
Goals − xG
-0.54 – +0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Mallorca win
30.9%
Draw
24.2%
Villarreal win
44.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–1.75 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Mallorca 1.54 xGVillarreal 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Mallorca attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' |
 Mallorca |
Zito | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samú Costa |
| 17' |
 Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 19' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 23' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 30' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 36' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Zito |
| 40' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 43' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 46' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 46' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 50' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 54' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 55' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 65' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Mallorca |
Zito | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 80' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 87' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 90' |
Mallorca |
Miguel Calatayud | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 94' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.03 | 0.88 |
| Samú Costa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.43 |
| Zito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| Omar Mascarell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Sergi Darder DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Pablo Torre AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Mateu Morey DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Manuel Morlanes MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| Toni Lato Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Virgili Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Calatayud Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| David López Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Arnau Tenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfon ML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Moleiro Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicolas Pepe Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Gerard Moreno Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |