Mamelodi Sundowns v Siwelele — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · RSA-Premiership · 2627

RSA-Premiership results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Mamelodi Sundowns

13:30

Siwelele

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 82h before kick-off

Mamelodi Sundowns win

74.4%

model 71.7%

Draw

18.5%

model 18.8%

Siwelele win

7.1%

model 9.5%

74187

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (75 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.8%
2-1 9.3%
3-0 9.0%
1-1 8.8%
3-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.5%	Under 2.5	34.5%
BTTS yes	54.7%	BTTS no	45.3%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+	91.8%	Mamelodi Sundowns 2+	71.4%
Siwelele 1+	58.0%	Siwelele 2+	21.6%

Expected goals 2.51 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 30%

59.0% fair odds 1.70

strong signal · 1564 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Mamelodi Sundowns leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time

83.9% fair odds 1.19

weak signal · 66 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mamelodi Sundowns carry the stronger rating, 1782 Elo against 1478.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mamelodi Sundowns have an estimated 74.4% win probability, against 18.5% for the draw and 7.1% for Siwelele. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.51 for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.87 for Siwelele.

Why Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns carry the stronger rating, 1782 Elo against 1478. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.5%. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Siwelele can win

They have had 15 days' rest to Mamelodi Sundowns's 7.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Mamelodi Sundowns, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Siwelele, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mamelodi Sundowns: 69% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 7.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Siwelele: 54% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Mamelodi Sundowns are the model's most likely outcome at 74.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	721910	2.51–0.87	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	73189	2.61–0.87	2-0 10%	68%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to win	73.3%	74.0%	42.1%	1.76×	1.35
Draw	17.8%	19.3%	30.7%	0.63×	5.17
Siwelele to win	8.9%	8.1%	27.4%	0.30×	12.28

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns & not both score	37.6%	33.2%	29.9%	1.11×	3.01
Mamelodi Sundowns & both teams score	35.8%	33.2%	12.4%	2.67×	3.02
Draw & both teams score	13.4%	13.2%	17.9%	0.74×	7.55
Siwelele & both teams score	5.9%	8.4%	9.1%	0.91×	11.95
Draw & not both score	4.4%	4.9%	13.0%	0.38×	20.48
Siwelele & not both score	3.0%	4.9%	18.5%	0.26×	20.52

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns & over 1.5	66.6%	67.1%	26.6%	2.52×	1.49
Mamelodi Sundowns & over 2.5	56.1%	55.0%	16.3%	3.38×	1.82
Mamelodi Sundowns & over 3.5	37.8%	34.9%	6.7%	5.21×	2.86
Mamelodi Sundowns & under 3.5	35.6%	34.9%	35.6%	0.98×	2.87
Mamelodi Sundowns & under 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	26.0%	0.69×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	13.4%	12.9%	17.9%	0.72×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	12.7%	12.9%	27.8%	0.46×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	12.7%	12.9%	27.8%	0.46×	7.78
Siwelele & over 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.69
Mamelodi Sundowns & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	15.7%	0.50×	12.69
Siwelele & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.69
Siwelele & under 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	23.0%	0.34×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	3.0%	2.58×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	3.0%	2.58×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	13.0%	0.37×	20.93
Siwelele & under 2.5	2.6%	4.8%	15.7%	0.31×	20.94
Siwelele & over 3.5	2.9%	4.8%	4.7%	1.02×	20.94
Siwelele & under 1.5	1.4%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (1UP)	83.1%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Siwelele (1UP)	27.3%	26.8%	—	—	3.74

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (2UP)	73.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Siwelele (2UP)	8.9%	9.0%	—	—	11.16

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to win 2nd half	60.7%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
2nd half drawn	26.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Siwelele to win 2nd half	12.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (+0.5)	91.1%	92.1%	72.6%	1.27×	1.09
Mamelodi Sundowns (-0.5)	73.3%	73.7%	42.1%	1.75×	1.36
Siwelele (+2.5)	67.8%	68.7%	93.7%	0.73×	1.46
Mamelodi Sundowns (-1.5)	53.3%	52.4%	19.3%	2.71×	1.91
Siwelele (+1.5)	46.7%	47.7%	80.7%	0.59×	2.10
Mamelodi Sundowns (-2.5)	32.2%	31.3%	6.3%	4.97×	3.20
Siwelele (+0.5)	26.7%	26.3%	57.9%	0.45×	3.80
Siwelele (-0.5)	8.9%	7.9%	27.4%	0.29×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele to concede	92.6%	91.8%	68.7%	1.34×	1.09
Siwelele clean sheet	7.4%	8.2%	31.3%	0.26×	12.13

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele to concede in 1st half	67.5%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Siwelele clean sheet in 1st half	32.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele under 6.5 corners	89.1%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Siwelele under 5.5 corners	81.6%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Siwelele under 4.5 corners	70.5%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Siwelele over 2.5 corners	62.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Siwelele under 3.5 corners	55.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Siwelele over 3.5 corners	44.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Siwelele under 2.5 corners	37.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Siwelele over 4.5 corners	29.5%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Siwelele over 5.5 corners	18.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Siwelele over 6.5 corners	10.9%	15.1%	—	—	6.64

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	98.0%	1.00×	1.03
Siwelele under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Siwelele under 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	78.3%	0.97×	1.31
Siwelele over 0.5 goals	58.1%	59.6%	57.3%	1.04×	1.68
Siwelele under 0.5 goals	41.9%	40.4%	42.7%	0.95×	2.48
Siwelele over 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	21.7%	1.09×	4.21
Siwelele over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	7.5%	1.02×	13.09
Siwelele over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.4%	2.0%	1.20×	41.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Siwelele under 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Siwelele over 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Siwelele over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.5%	—	—	22.31

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (away no bet)	80.5%	82.6%	57.8%	1.43×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.5%	17.4%	42.2%	0.41×	5.74

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele even goals	58.8%	56.9%	58.5%	0.97×	1.76
Siwelele odd goals	41.2%	43.1%	41.5%	1.04×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.2%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Both halves over 1.5 goals	25.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.7%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.3%	27.2%	—	—	3.67

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	73.2%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Mamelodi Sundowns to score 2+ in a row	66.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	40.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Mamelodi Sundowns to score 3+ in a row	38.2%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Siwelele to score 2+ in a row	12.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Siwelele to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.76

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns corners (+3.5)	88.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Mamelodi Sundowns corners (+2.5)	82.4%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Siwelele corners (+3.5)	81.0%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Mamelodi Sundowns corners (+1.5)	73.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Siwelele corners (+2.5)	72.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Siwelele corners (+1.5)	61.6%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Mamelodi Sundowns corners (-1.5)	38.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Mamelodi Sundowns corners (-2.5)	27.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Siwelele corners (-1.5)	26.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Mamelodi Sundowns corners (-3.5)	19.0%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Siwelele corners (-2.5)	17.6%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Siwelele corners (-3.5)	11.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	63.3%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
9-11 corners	23.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
12+ corners	13.7%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	90.7%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Under 11.5 corners	86.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 10.5 corners	80.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 9.5 corners	72.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	63.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 7.5 corners	52.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Over 7.5 corners	47.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 8.5 corners	36.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 9.5 corners	27.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Over 11.5 corners	13.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.80
Over 12.5 corners	9.3%	14.1%	—	—	7.10

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.5%	11.5%	1.8%	6.26×	8.73
2-0	10.5%	11.4%	10.6%	1.08×	8.73
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.46
3-0	9.1%	7.4%	3.5%	2.15×	13.46
1-0	6.8%	7.4%	15.7%	0.47×	13.46
1-1	8.3%	7.4%	15.0%	0.49×	13.46
3-1	8.0%	7.4%	2.6%	2.81×	13.46
4-0	6.0%	7.4%	0.6%	12.18×	13.46
4-1	5.2%	7.4%	1.4%	5.22×	13.46
0-0	4.4%	1.7%	13.0%	0.13×	58.57
0-1	1.4%	1.7%	10.6%	0.16×	58.58
0-2	1.2%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.59
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.59
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.20×	58.59
1-2	3.0%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.57
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.59
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.59
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.57
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.10×	58.59
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.20×	58.59
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.57
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.20×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.40×	58.59
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.20×	58.58
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.20×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.40×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns leading at HT (DNB)	83.2%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Siwelele leading at HT (DNB)	16.8%	13.3%	—	—	7.54

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw (1X)	91.1%	91.9%	72.6%	1.27×	1.09
Mamelodi Sundowns or Siwelele (12)	82.2%	80.7%	69.3%	1.16×	1.24
Siwelele or draw (X2)	26.7%	26.0%	57.9%	0.45×	3.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw at HT	88.8%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Mamelodi Sundowns or Siwelele at HT	66.7%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Siwelele or draw at HT	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw (1UP)	91.1%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
Siwelele or draw (1UP)	27.3%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw in 2nd half	87.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Mamelodi Sundowns or Siwelele in 2nd half	73.1%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Siwelele or draw in 2nd half	39.3%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	49.7%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Neither half drawn	50.3%	49.9%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (DNB)	89.2%	87.6%	60.5%	1.45×	1.14
Siwelele (DNB)	10.8%	12.4%	39.5%	0.31×	8.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to score first	71.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Siwelele to score first	23.9%	23.1%	—	—	4.32
No goal scored	4.4%	4.4%	—	—	22.87

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.1%	54.7%	39.0%	1.40×	1.83
Not both teams to score	44.9%	45.3%	61.0%	0.74×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.8%	44.2%	24.2%	1.83×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	24.2%	27.7%	54.3%	0.51×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	20.7%	27.7%	6.9%	4.01×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	8.3%	8.4%	15.0%	0.56×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.1%	83.2%	94.3%	0.88×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.9%	16.8%	5.7%	2.95×	5.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.3%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Both score 2nd half only	25.7%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
Both score 1st half only	13.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.99

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	81.8%	—	—	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	18.2%	—	—	5.49

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
A half without a goal	32.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.6%	42.1%	47.4%	0.89×	2.37
4-6 goals	39.6%	35.0%	13.0%	2.69×	2.86
0-1 goals	12.5%	16.9%	38.8%	0.44×	5.91
7+ goals	6.3%	7.6%	1.2%	6.23×	13.17

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele to score exactly 0	41.9%	37.0%	42.7%	0.87×	2.71
Siwelele to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	35.8%	1.01×	2.78
Siwelele to score exactly 2	15.8%	19.5%	14.4%	1.35×	5.12
Siwelele to score 3+	5.8%	8.5%	7.5%	1.13×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to score 3+	48.4%	36.8%	10.2%	3.63×	2.72
Mamelodi Sundowns to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.5%	20.3%	1.30×	3.77
Mamelodi Sundowns to score exactly 1	19.2%	18.9%	38.6%	0.49×	5.30
Mamelodi Sundowns to score exactly 0	7.4%	10.3%	31.3%	0.33×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns leading at HT	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Draw at HT	33.3%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
Siwelele leading at HT	11.2%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns -1: 1	53.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Mamelodi Sundowns -1: 2	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Mamelodi Sundowns -1: X	20.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (0:1)	53.3%	51.2%	19.3%	2.65×	1.95
Siwelele (0:1)	26.7%	27.0%	57.9%	0.47×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	20.1%	24.3%	23.0%	1.06×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele (0:2)	46.7%	51.1%	80.7%	0.63×	1.96
Mamelodi Sundowns (0:2)	32.2%	28.6%	6.3%	4.53×	3.50
Draw (0:2)	21.1%	20.3%	13.2%	1.54×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele (0:3)	67.8%	72.0%	93.7%	0.77×	1.39
Mamelodi Sundowns (0:3)	16.5%	16.1%	1.2%	13.17×	6.23
Draw (0:3)	15.7%	16.0%	5.3%	3.03×	6.24

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele (0:4)	83.5%	87.1%	98.8%	0.88×	1.15
Draw (0:4)	9.3%	4.7%	0.8%	5.74×	21.44
Mamelodi Sundowns (0:4)	7.2%	4.6%	0.6%	7.58×	21.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (1:0)	91.1%	92.7%	72.6%	1.28×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	5.8%	6.9%	16.3%	0.42×	14.51
Siwelele (1:0)	3.0%	3.2%	11.4%	0.28×	31.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns (2:0)	97.0%	96.9%	88.6%	1.09×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	7.7%	0.29×	44.26
Siwelele (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	3.9%	0.58×	44.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	23.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to concede	58.1%	61.0%	57.3%	1.06×	1.64
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet	41.9%	39.0%	42.7%	0.91×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheet in 1st half	70.6%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Mamelodi Sundowns to concede in 1st half	29.4%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns under 6.5 corners	83.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Mamelodi Sundowns under 5.5 corners	73.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Mamelodi Sundowns over 2.5 corners	70.4%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Mamelodi Sundowns under 4.5 corners	61.4%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Mamelodi Sundowns over 3.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Mamelodi Sundowns under 3.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Mamelodi Sundowns over 4.5 corners	38.6%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Mamelodi Sundowns under 2.5 corners	29.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Mamelodi Sundowns over 5.5 corners	26.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Mamelodi Sundowns over 6.5 corners	17.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns over 0.5 goals	92.6%	92.2%	68.7%	1.34×	1.08
Mamelodi Sundowns over 1.5 goals	73.4%	74.2%	30.3%	2.45×	1.35
Mamelodi Sundowns under 3.5 goals	73.4%	74.2%	96.5%	0.77×	1.35
Mamelodi Sundowns under 2.5 goals	51.6%	53.3%	89.8%	0.59×	1.88
Mamelodi Sundowns over 2.5 goals	48.4%	46.7%	10.2%	4.60×	2.14
Mamelodi Sundowns under 1.5 goals	26.6%	25.8%	69.7%	0.37×	3.88
Mamelodi Sundowns over 3.5 goals	26.6%	25.8%	3.5%	7.46×	3.88
Mamelodi Sundowns under 0.5 goals	7.4%	7.8%	31.3%	0.25×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns under 1.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Mamelodi Sundowns over 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Mamelodi Sundowns under 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Mamelodi Sundowns over 1.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.1%	—	—	3.22

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	66.7%	63.8%	52.8%	1.21×	1.57
Siwelele (home no bet)	33.3%	36.2%	47.2%	0.77×	2.76

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns even goals	50.3%	50.6%	53.7%	0.94×	1.98
Mamelodi Sundowns odd goals	49.7%	49.4%	46.3%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	25.6%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
HT 0-0	23.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 2-0	14.5%	11.1%	—	—	9.03
Any other HT score	10.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.06
HT 1-1	9.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 0-1	7.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.10
HT 2-1	5.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.14
HT 0-2	1.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.83
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.82
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.87

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns at HT / Mamelodi Sundowns at FT	50.6%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Draw at HT / Mamelodi Sundowns at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Siwelele at HT / Siwelele at FT	4.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.10
Mamelodi Sundowns at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.13
Draw at HT / Siwelele at FT	3.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.15
Siwelele at HT / Mamelodi Sundowns at FT	3.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.15
Siwelele at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.15
Mamelodi Sundowns at HT / Siwelele at FT	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to score last	72.1%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Siwelele to score last	23.6%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
No goal scored	4.4%	4.4%	—	—	22.87

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.6%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Mamelodi Sundowns to lead by 1 at any time	83.1%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.9%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Mamelodi Sundowns to lead by 2 at any time	59.7%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	37.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Mamelodi Sundowns to lead by 3 at any time	35.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Siwelele to lead by 1 at any time	27.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Siwelele to lead by 2 at any time	6.6%	6.5%	—	—	15.37
Siwelele to lead by 3 at any time	1.3%	1.5%	—	—	64.64

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns most corners	50.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Siwelele most corners	37.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Corners level	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.7%	83.5%	85.0%	0.98×	1.20
2-6 goals	81.2%	83.5%	60.2%	1.39×	1.20
2-5 goals	73.6%	72.4%	59.1%	1.22×	1.38
1-4 goals	68.6%	69.0%	81.1%	0.85×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.2%	63.5%	29.9%	2.12×	1.58
2-4 goals	60.5%	63.5%	55.3%	1.15×	1.58
3-5 goals	53.6%	53.1%	28.9%	1.84×	1.88
1-3 goals	49.8%	48.7%	73.2%	0.67×	2.06
2-3 goals	41.6%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	25.0%	1.74×	2.29
4-6 goals	39.6%	39.2%	13.0%	3.01×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.0%	35.4%	12.0%	2.95×	2.83
1-2 goals	28.1%	30.2%	56.3%	0.54×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.7%	24.4%	5.1%	4.81×	4.09
7+ goals	6.3%	8.7%	1.2%	7.16×	11.45

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns never behind	68.4%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Siwelele never behind	12.5%	12.8%	—	—	7.79

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.4%	50.8%	47.8%	1.06×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.6%	49.2%	52.2%	0.94×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	87.0%	1.10×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.5%	87.7%	61.2%	1.43×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	86.1%	87.7%	97.8%	0.90×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	73.0%	72.5%	93.9%	0.77×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.5%	66.3%	30.9%	2.14×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	54.2%	52.4%	86.0%	0.61×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	45.8%	47.6%	14.0%	3.39×	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	32.5%	33.7%	69.1%	0.49×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	27.0%	27.5%	6.1%	4.50×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	13.9%	12.3%	2.2%	5.52×	8.11
Under 1.5 goals	12.5%	12.3%	38.8%	0.32×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	13.0%	0.35×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.2%	92.5%	98.8%	0.94×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	84.3%	81.1%	44.3%	1.83×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.0%	81.1%	97.7%	0.83×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	66.7%	67.3%	93.4%	0.72×	1.49
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.5%	55.5%	16.9%	3.29×	1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.5%	44.5%	83.1%	0.53×	2.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	33.3%	32.7%	6.6%	4.93×	3.06
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.0%	18.9%	2.3%	8.11×	5.30
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	15.7%	18.9%	55.7%	0.34×	5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.8%	7.5%	1.2%	6.12×	13.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.6%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.8%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.6%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.4%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.4%	13.6%	—	—	7.35

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.1%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.5%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.5%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.9%	14.7%	—	—	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele not to score in both halves	88.1%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Mamelodi Sundowns to score in both halves	52.2%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Mamelodi Sundowns not to score in both halves	47.8%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Siwelele to score in both halves	11.9%	14.1%	—	—	7.12

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.1%	58.2%	39.0%	1.49×	1.72
Only Mamelodi Sundowns scores	37.6%	39.8%	29.9%	1.33×	2.51
Neither team scores	4.4%	4.6%	13.0%	0.35×	21.70
Only Siwelele scores	3.0%	4.6%	18.5%	0.25×	21.76

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	17.1%	1.33×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	20.0%	17.5%	30.5%	0.57×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.8%	17.5%	8.1%	2.15×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.9%	12.1%	2.2%	5.40×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	13.1%	12.1%	4.1%	2.97×	8.29
Exactly 1 goals	8.2%	7.6%	26.0%	0.29×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.4%	4.4%	13.0%	0.34×	22.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.1%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.1%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
No goals in 2nd half	13.9%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele not to win both halves	98.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Mamelodi Sundowns not to win both halves	66.0%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Mamelodi Sundowns to win both halves	34.0%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Siwelele to win both halves	1.5%	2.8%	—	—	36.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns to win either half	82.1%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Siwelele to win neither half	77.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Siwelele to win either half	22.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Mamelodi Sundowns to win neither half	17.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Siwelele not to win to nil	97.0%	96.2%	81.5%	1.18×	1.04
Mamelodi Sundowns not to win to nil	62.4%	66.8%	70.1%	0.95×	1.50
Mamelodi Sundowns to win to nil	37.6%	33.2%	29.9%	1.11×	3.01
Siwelele to win to nil	3.0%	3.8%	18.5%	0.21×	26.08

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mamelodi Sundowns by 3+	32.2%	27.6%	6.3%	4.38×	3.62
Mamelodi Sundowns by 2	21.1%	24.1%	13.2%	1.83×	4.14
Mamelodi Sundowns by 1	20.1%	24.1%	23.0%	1.05×	4.14
Draw	17.8%	16.9%	30.7%	0.55×	5.90
Siwelele by 1	5.8%	7.2%	16.3%	0.45×	13.81
Siwelele by 2	2.3%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.99
Siwelele by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	3.9%	0.70×	37.05