Manchester City v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 22 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.27
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 0.86
Goals − xG
+0.64 – -0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
51.4%
Draw
23.1%
Aston Villa win
25.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–1.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–1.30 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 1.36 xGAston Villa 1.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Youri Tielemans |
| 6' |
 Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 22' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Omar Marmoush |
| 25' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 29' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pau Torres |
| 31' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 35' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 38' |
Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 43' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 55' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 56' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
James McAtee | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 62' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 73' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 93' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.87 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Omar Marmoush ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Kevin De Bruyne FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Ilkay Gündogan MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| James McAtee MR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jéremy Doku Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Manuel Akanji Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Youri Tielemans AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Morgan Rogers AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.69 |
| Marcus Rashford FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.66 | 0.08 | 0.89 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Jacob Ramsey AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Disasi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John McGinn Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Asensio Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ollie Watkins Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |